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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1227 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

issued at 1226 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

No update necessary.

Update issued at 926 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Adjusted cloud trends through the morning as clouds not clearing
as fast as earlier expected. Remainder of forecast OK.

Update issued at 644 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Cloud cover has stuck around a bit longer than expected. Rap relative humidity
fields and hrrr ceilings have the clouds breaking up by middle to
late morning. Went mostly cloudy for a bit longer this morning
then decreasing by the middle of the day. Will continue to keep
temperatures in the 70s but may have to make adjustments later on if the
clouds do not scatter out as advertised.


Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 313 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

The challenge for this night shift will be staying awake as the
pattern takes a turn towards the Boring.

WV loop and upper air analysis have northwesterly flow aloft
continuing over the northern plains as the ridging in the western
Continental U.S. And trough in the east sets up for the next few days. High
pressure at the surface will bring clearing skies today and north
winds not as strong as the past few days. The NAM persists in
bringing a weak shortwave trough down into northern Minnesota with precipitation
clipping the Lake of The Wood area. seems to be an
outlier with how far west showers develop. Will continue to keep
the forecast dry for now. Think we should see more sunshine
today...which should help temperatures climb into the 70s.

Northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure will continue through
tonight and Tuesday. Winds will become light under the surface high
center over central ND will have to watch the
western counties for any patchy fog formation overnight but
chances are low enough at this point to not include in the grids.
Lows should drop down into the 50s again tonight and highs on
Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than today and top out in the
upper 70s.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 313 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...the very quiet pattern
continues with northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure.
Not much air mass change but with a bit more wind overnight temperatures
should stay in the middle to upper 50s for both nights. Highs on
Wednesday should get to near seasonal averages in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Thursday to Monday...models in excellent agreement with 500mb northwest
flow aloft with the northern plains under predominantly high
pressure and thus dry weather. Temperatures will be near normal with
increasing heights and dewpoints as western ridge slowly pushes into
the forecast area by the weekend. Kept the isolated pockets of chance for thunder as
a ridge rider could bring precipitation to the forecast area.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1226 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

Still have a persistent 6000ft cloud deck over the southern Red
River valley. Thinking it should be gone in the next hour but it
will be replaced by other cumulus. Skies should clear this evening
with more cumulus around later Tuesday morning. Looking at steady northwest
winds at 5 to 10 knots except calm in the evening and overnight.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Jr
long term...Jr/jk

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