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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
242 PM CST sun Nov 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 240 PM CST sun Nov 29 2015

Challenging forecast with upcoming snow event. Models coming into
better agreement with surface low track for increasing confidence
in event. All trends have been farther north with low track and
associated snow shield into our forecast area.

For tonight will see increasing clouds across the north which will
result in milder temperatures most areas.

Timing of snow arriving to the southern forecast area in pretty good
agreement with models. Will take some time to saturate however by
late afternoon light snow should be initiating across the far
southern counties. Temperatures should be ranging close to the
freezing mark over most areas.

Lowest condensation pressure deficits and favored isentropic lift
will be overnight Monday with best potential for accumulating
snow. Areas along the ND/South Dakota Minnesota border area on northern edge of
best support so have issued a Winter Storm Watch for this area.
Isentropic lift fairly neutral roughly along the Highway 200
corridor so snow amounts should taper off significantly to the
north. With clouds and lack of cold advection temperatures should
stay relatively mild overnight.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 240 PM CST sun Nov 29 2015

Snow will be ongoing Tuesday morning however as low lifts into the
Great Lakes will see a diminishing trend from NW-se. Most
additional accumulations will across southeast half of the forecast area. Snow period
will last about 36 hours across the south with total
accumulations from 5 to 8 inches possible with lesser amounts to
the north. Fortunately wind does not look to be a player in this

Snow will continue to diminish across the east Tuesday evening.
With warmer air on the back edge of the system temperatures will
not drop off significantly even with fresh snow cover.

Warmer air will move into the region Wednesday however with fresh
snow temperatures not likely to get very far into the 30s.

Extended period begins with a pair of upper ridges flanking the County Warning Area.
In between is a sharp European model (ecmwf) trough digging toward the Central Plains while the
GFS depicts a more progressive short wave remaining resident north of the
border in Canada. Given the dearth of cold air appears the blended
solution would be the most viable with dry conditions from Thursday through
the weekend along with temperatures about 10 degrees above


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM CST sun Nov 29 2015

VFR conditions with middle cloud ceilings moving over airfields this
afternoon. Mainly southerly winds will remain well below 10 kts the
next 24 hours.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for ndz052-053.

Minnesota...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for mnz029>031-040.



Short term...voelker
long term...wjb/voelker

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