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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 326 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Upper level low near Duluth will begin to move east today.
Wraparound clouds and cool north-northwest winds will continue for
much of the day in eastern ND/northwest Minnesota. The western edge of the clouds
are near a Bottineau to Rugby to Jamestown line...with the clouds
having been shifting a bit southwest with time during the night as
an impulse drops back south around the upper low. As the upper low
moves east look for the clouds to gradually clear from west to
east this afternoon into eastern ND and then this evening into northwest Minnesota. With
clouds around most of the day...temperatures will remain well below
average. Main issue will be winds. Not quite as strong as
Monday...but 30-35 kts to mix at 850-925 mb will ensure a windy
day once again. Sustained wind speeds very close to advisory
criteria as MOS forecast winds of 23-25 kts are seen at gfk/far. At
the present given borderline nature...will hold off on advisory.
But it will be windy nonetheless. Will maintain probability of precipitation very close to
previous forecast with isolated-scattered snow showers this morning and afternoon rain
showers mostly confined to northwest Minnesota.

Clear or clearing skies this evening/overnight and diminishing
winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s. Sunshine on Wednesday
and lighter winds will make for a more pleasant day. Though high
temperatures climb just a few degrees into 40s. Coldest night Wednesday night
with light winds and clear sky.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 326 am CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Sunshine and a tad warmer on Thursday with light winds as high
pressure ridge is overhead.

For Friday into Saturday...the upper level ridge begins to
amplify. Return flow with increasing southerly winds ahead of surface
low pressure will help temperatures recover towards normal values.

Sunday through Monday...will see moisture increase ahead of surface low
pressure. Models differ a bit over placement of precipitation over the
area...but an European model (ecmwf)/GFS blend seems reasonable at this time and adjusted
probability of precipitation accordingly. The low will continue to shift east through the end of
the period...but an inverted trough with wrap around moisture will
keep the higher probability of precipitation in place through the end of the period.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1145 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

Mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities in light snow showers across the
northwest to northcentral Minnesota throughout the overnight. Points along
and west of an hco-gfk-far line will see mainly low VFR ceilings and
VFR visibilities with isolated snow showers still possible through the
overnight. Scattered skies along and west of a dvl-jms line will steadily
edge across eastern ND by late morning and across the Red River into
northwestern Minnesota through the afternoon. Meanwhile moderate
northwesterly blayer flow will persist throughout the overnight
and much of Tuesday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Riddle
long term...Hopkins/Riddle

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