Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
issued at 931 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Lots of sun across the forecast area right now but quite a bit of middle and
upper level clouds moving into western ND. These will spread into
our forecast area through the afternoon. Still some localized cold spots
around Langdon and from kfse up through khco but these should
increase as winds come up this morning. With cold advection steady
today not sure how warm temperatures will actually get. Think some rise
with the sun is likely this morning but temperatures may steady off as
the thicker clouds roll back in this afternoon. For now will
leave temperatures alone and watch how things progress through the
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 327 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
The quiet weather pattern continues...with the main forecast issues
revolving around temperatures and low precipitation chances over the next few days.
The surface trough continues to push through the area this morning
with winds shifting to the west behind it. So far fog has remained
patchy across the northern valley as expected...with Hallock briefly
dropping down to 1/4 mile earlier.
Few changes overall were made to the forecast this morning. Expect
weak low-level cold advection to continue through the day today.
However...with west winds and a mild start...another very pleasant March
day is expected with most locations peaking near or above 40.
There should be more sunshine today with once again only some middle
to high level cloud cover.
A band of precipitation associated with a sloped frontal circulation will
develop across parts of the western Dakotas late today and shift
southeastward into Tuesday. Forecast soundings tonight indicate
quite a bit of dry air above the surface layer over the region with
cool northerly flow. Thus...think most of the precipitation will stay in
South Dakota. Models generally show this solution...with the
European model (ecmwf)...which had been farthest north with this band...now also a
bit farther south. Maintained low probability of precipitation near the South Dakota border late
tonight...as this area stands the best chance to be skirted by the
northern edge of the band. Temperatures tonight should remain fairly
mild again...with the warmest temperatures across the south...with more
cloud cover. With more melting snow today...some fog could not be
ruled out tonight especially across the north..given rather light
winds...but will not mention at this point due to uncertainty with
Low-level cold advection will continue on Tuesday as the
northwesterly upper flow begins to amplify. A 500 mb shortwave
trough will begin to swing through from the northwest late in the
day...with perhaps a bit of light snow entering the Devils Lake
basin. Temperatures will cool down from the past few days...but still
will be near middle-March averages.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 327 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Kept some low probability of precipitation in for Tuesday night mainly across eastern
North Dakota...with models in fairly good agreement with the
passage of the upper wave. Expect any snow to be light and quick to
move out...with subsidence behind the wave. Low temperatures could be
pretty chilly across the northeastern part of the area closer to
the surface high...down into the single digits...depending on which
areas can remain clear.
Return flow/warm advection will develop on Wednesday as the high
shifts east and the next surface trough approaches. The warmest temperatures
will be west of the valley...where temperatures may even be a little
higher if west winds with the surface trough arrive a bit earlier.
Middle-level shortwave ridging ahead of the next upstream wave and
the approach of the low-level thermal ridge axis should keep temperatures
up on Wednesday night. Did include some low probability of precipitation across far
eastern part of the forecast area...within the stronger warm
advection zone and closer to an upper shortwave trough dropping
towards northeastern Minnesota.
Thursday through Sunday...another warm day at the start of the
period as west surface winds and warm air advection continue ahead of a
shortwave digging through southern Canada. The shortwave will move
into the Great Lakes on Friday...dragging a cold front through the
region and knocking temperatures back closer to seasonal averages for the
weekend. There could be some precipitation with the frontal passage...but
not a huge amount of moisture to work with. Will continue with
fairly low probability of precipitation for now. The northwesterly flow aloft continues
through the end of the period with another weak shortwave mostly
bringing precipitation to our south and west for the weekend. Winds will
shift to the south and pick up ahead of a shortwave moving into the
northern rockies after the end of the period.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 646 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
VFR conditions are expected for much of this period...with
primarily middle/high clouds at times. Westerly winds at 10-15
kts...with a few higher gusts...will become northwesterly and
eventually northerly late this afternoon and tonight.