Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

issued at 1128 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Based on current temperatures lowered minimums across the far NE
where readings have dropped into the upper 20s. No other changes

Update issued at 932 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

No update necessary.

Update issued at 624 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

No changes to current forecast this update period.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 322 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

The clouds are clearing over northern Minnesota will all but Baudette and
Waskish in the clouds at middle afternoon. These will clear out by
evening. This will leave a clear sky area wide tonight. Light
winds over the eastern forecast area with high pressure ridge over the
area early part of the night should ensure a fast drop in temperatures
east of the Red River. A southerly wind will keep temperatures a bit
warmer west of the Red River tonight. Clear sky Tuesday as well
but with high moving east and approaching low/trough to our west
look for the typical windy south-southeast wind set up over eastern ND
and Red River valley Tuesday midday-aftn. 35 kts to mix at 925 mb
so looking pretty windy near advisory levels in some
locations...most favored in these events the northern valley from
Crookston to Hallock. Later shifts can monitor. Wind to stay up
Tuesday night and keep temperatures from falling as much. Clouds will
also increase later Tuesday night as lower level moisture works
up from the south and high level moisture from the west.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

No significant changes to the forecast with continued chance of showers
Wednesday shifting east a little Wednesday night. Main focus of precipitation
appears to remain from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota in nose of low level jet
and low level moisture. Precipitable water do increase to around 1 inch in this
band...but does appear a bit better forcing will be south of our
area. Going with HPC...precipitation amts under one quarter inch.
Clearing skies Thursday with temperatures still mild.

Thursday night to Monday...the overall dry weather will continue
into the start of next week. The warmer than normal temperatures will also
continue as 500mb ridge influences the central Continental U.S.. maximum temperatures
Friday well above normal...15 to 20 degrees near 70 in spots...will
give way to a cooler airmass behind a frontal passage Friday afternoon with highs 5
to 10 degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday...upper 50s.
Slight chance for rain showers Monday with a short wave system appearing to
organize across S Canada and drag a front through the Dakotas which
would drop temperatures down to near end of Oct normals


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1128 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

VFR conditions through the period with no ceilings anticipated. Southeast
winds will increase through the day tomorrow becoming windy by
afternoon with gusts 30 to 40 kts possible.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle
long term...jk/Riddle

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations