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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

Update...
issued at 655 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

Have reduced the probability of precipitation just a bit over northeast ND and the
northern Red River for the evening... with the greatest threat for a
measurable amount of shower activity still over far northwest and
northcentral Minnesota. A preliminary precipitation band will drop through
northwest Minnesota from tvf through bji over the next few hours. A
second band now moving southward from the Winnipeg through Kenora
area appears likely to move through a similar area around
midnight.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 323 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

Challenge for the forecast will be coverage of showers next 24
hours and maximum temperatures for Monday. Models in excellent agreement with
the unseasonably cool blyr being escorting across the forecast area as the
next vorticity lope swings down on the back side of the southward
moving 500mb low. As it enters the forecast area this evening isolated showers
will advect in with steep lapse rates from cold air advection with 6c 925 temperatures
continuing the breezy conditions mixing down the 30kts from
850mb.

Best chance for rain will be under The Pocket of coldest 500mb air as
it tracks from near lotw south near bji. With the core of the
coolest air pushing through the forecast area overnight did keep the thinking
of the some late day sunshine as drier and warmer air move into
the western and northern forecast area. As a result maximum temperatures near to just
above the record low maximum for July 14. Showers will diminish from
northwest to southeast as the drier and warmer air advect south and the 500mb
forcing moves away.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 323 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

Tuesday through Sunday...warmer and gradually more humid is the
main message this extended period. Upper flow turns from northwest
Wednesday briefly to a zonal flow near the end. Building ridge
portends increasing temperatures each day. The County warning forecast area should be
precipitation free until later in the period when a boundary
provides the focus for convection.

12z run of models are in fair agreement into Friday then begin to
diverge. GFS remains slower as dgex/European model (ecmwf) bring a lead shortwave
into the northern plains 1 full day ahead of GFS. With these
differences will maintain continuity as much as possible.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 655 PM CDT sun Jul 13 2014

West and south from gfk expect mostly VFR conds with increasing
middle level clouds overnight and northerly blayer winds. North and
east from gfk into tvf and bji expect VFR ceilings and visibility with isolated
-shra through midnight... then areas MVFR ceilings and -shra from
midnight into midmorning.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...gjg
short term...jk
long term...ewens
aviation...gjg

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