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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
100 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

issued at 1256 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Not unexpected the band of light showers weakened as they moved
into the Red more isolated -rw or sprinkles. Extensive middle
clouds and a feed of isolated showers will remain through the aftn/eve.
A bit more concentrated showers near Sioux Falls and Huron moving
north-northeast and could skirt the far southeast forecast area late this
aftn/eve. Patch is more toward Watertown-Alexandria though.
Overall minor tweeks made to probability of precipitation and temperatures.


Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 335 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

The main challenge will be shower chances today into Monday and
temperatures. Models are in good agreement with the GFS initializing some
light quantitative precipitation forecast to the west and south of US this will

For today...the hrrr indicates that some showers should push into
the Red River valley today. Most of the moisture is in the middle
levels...but some areas could get a few hundredths so will go with
a slight chance for some showers moving from west to east. Precipitable waters
will approach 1 inch later today in the west. Winds will continue
from the S/southeast and it should be breezy in the valley. Temperatures should
be cooler than recent days with plenty of clouds and some showers

For tonight...a shortwave will move from west to east along with a
surface boundary. There will be some isolated showers for the entire will mention some low probability of precipitation. The best chance for
measurable rain should occur in the far north...although rain
amounts will be very light.

On Monday...there could be a few lingering showers in northwest
Minnesota...otherwise expect a drying column and sunshine developing with
drier westerly flow. Temperatures should warm above normal into the
low/middle 60s with favorable west winds.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 335 am CDT sun Oct 4 2015

For Monday night...high pressure builds in and temperatures should fall
into the middle 30s north and around 40 south. There could be some
patchy frost at least in the north and we will keep an eye on this

On will be dry and a bit cooler than Monday with
fairly light winds and high pressure sliding into western Minnesota.

Wednesday to Saturday will continue to see temperatures at to above
normal with an overall warming trend for the end of the week. Short
wave to move through the progressive flow Wednesday into Thursday
with some likely probability of precipitation on Wednesday night across the area. Friday
into the weekend 500mb ridging and drier weather develops with
aforementioned warmer temperatures pushing into the northern


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1256 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Mainly dealing with scattered to broken middle clouds across the area right now
with a few sprinkles or showers around. Not confident enough that
any of these showers will hit any of the taf sites so will not
mention them at this point. Winds will start to turn around to the
south-southwest on Monday morning...but more so for kdvl/kgfk/kfar.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...jk/dk

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