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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 315 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

All models indicate the upper ridge will remain across the region
until Monday when an upper trough will propagate through the
region bringing the chance for showers.

Through mid-morning...there is an upper wave on the west side of
the upper ridge leading to showers across central North Dakota.
Short range guidance (hrrr...rap...hopwrf) indicates that these
showers will affect a portion of Towner...Benson...and eddy
counties through 15z. By early afternoon...the upper ridge re-
enforces leading to the clouds across eastern North Dakota
clearing (and ending shower chances). There will be a dry airmass
advecting into the region from the east...and with solar expect
temperatures well into the 60s most areas (possibly even 70f
within the valley).

Model trends are for the upper ridge to hold longer thus delaying
shower chances. Although the European model (ecmwf) is stronger with the upper
trough on Monday...all guidance indicates that the upper trough
will lead to strong frontogenesis across central North Dakota by
Monday morning...but weakening forcing as it moves east through
this region. Stuck with the idea of likely probability of precipitation across the
northwest forecast area...with more chance probability of precipitation across the southeast forecast area.
Anticipate a decent band of showers entering northeast North
Dakota on Monday...slowly propagating to the east/southeast and
diminishing by Monday night.

Long term...(tuesday through saturday)
issued at 315 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Tuesday-Tuesday night...upper ridge will start to build into the
region. Anticipate dry weather and relatively warm temperatures.

Wednesday-Saturday...confidence is high that temperatures will be above
to well above average during this period. The global models are in
good agreement bringing middle/upper level ridging into the northern
plains Wednesday and Thursday before an upper level shortwave
trough approaches for Thursday night and Friday...bringing the next
chance for showers. Behind the shortwave...not much in the way of
cool air is expected...although models differ on the evolution of
the longwave flow pattern. Temperatures at least up into the 70s (with
some day to day variability) are possible throughout this time
over much of the area. Late April average highs are in the low


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Mostly clear sky will continue along and east of the Red River
valley through this period (except for possible cirrus). West of
the valley (kdvl)...current 4000ft ceilings will hold steady through
the morning hours. VFR conditions should continue...although there
is uncertainty whether the clouds will clear this afternoon.
Latest guidance has delayed shower chances across northeast North
Dakota until after 12z Monday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...



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