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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1018 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

issued at 1004 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Increased north to northeast surface flow across the northern
plains this morning has continued to nudge the pesky smoke and
haze layers further off southern edges of the fgf forecast
area...with lowest visibilities now along an Aberdeen- Wheaton-
Staples-Park Rapids Arch. The cooler and fresher air should
persist much of today...though flow will start to turn back from
the northwest aloft though the afternoon and evening. An isolated
shower is still possible this afternoon in eastern ND but coverage
would be quite low.


Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 250 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Temperatures and Canadian Forest fire smoke (air quality) will be
the main concerns. The region will be under an upper trough
today...with a cold pool aloft. This could lead to cumulus and isolated
shower development...although model soundings indicate a rather
dry column. Did keep the isolated showers for parts of the western
forecast area. The main story for today will be cool (upper 60s to low 70s)
and breezy. High pressure moves into the region Monday
night/Tuesday...which will lead to generally quiet weather with
similar temperatures.

The National Weather Service air quality forecast guidance (airquality.Weather.Gov)
indicates thicker smoke will affect the region today (similar
density to last Friday/saturday)...and have included areas of smoke
in the forecast (through tonight). Visibility concerns will be
confined to aviation...although air quality may again be
unhealthy (especially on Tuesday with lighter winds expected).

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 250 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...high pressure moves off to the
east setting up weak return flow. 00z model guidance indicates a
surface boundary (extending from a Canadian system) will be somewhere
across the northern forecast area on Wednesday. Current model runs indicate
MLCAPE along this feature 500-1000 j/kg...along with 0-6km deep
layer shear around 30 knots. This environment could lead to a few
stronger storms with expected lower freezing levels...although
coverage would be minimal given weak forcing. If
evapotranspiration/pooling increases low level moisture...then
the severe threat may increase...but as of now thinking maybe one
or two storms that could approach severe limits (hail). closed low over California breaks down upper
pattern shifts to an active southwest flow. Models still look dry
for Thursday into Thursday night before precipitation chances return across the west
on Friday. Precipitable water values rise to around 1.50 inches by
Friday night into the weekend. Temperatures also look quite warm with the
ridging during this period so there could be some capping issues
to deal with at times. Currently have Sat as the warmest day with
the best short wave/chances for convection arriving Sat night and
sun. Still quite a ways out so finer details will hopefully be
worked out as the week progresses.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 622 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Visibility restrictions from Canadian wild fire smoke the main
concern for aviation purposes. Hard to get a good handle on the
situation. Breezy northerly winds should be enough to keep visibility
VFR during the day...but lighter winds tonight could lead to lower


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...godon/tg

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