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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 305 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Forecast challenge concerns short term precipitation trends and
temperatures. Models overall in good agreement.

Rain showers over northwest Minnesota will continue to propagate southeast remainder of
the afternoon. Still some rain showers up in Canada which may clip the far
NE forecast area so maintained some light probability of precipitation into the evening. Otherwise
clearing will continue to spread east and with weak high building
in for light winds temperatures will drop close to freezing.

As surface high shifts east Tuesday return flow/warm advection
increases mainly during the afternoon. The day should start out
mainly sky clear with middle level clouds increasing as warm advection
kicks in. This should allow for good thermal recovery with
temperatures well above average.

Mixing and continued warm advection will hold temperatures up
Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Stacked low develops over Saskatchewan Wednesday with forecast area mainly under
influence of short wave middle level ridging. With deepest layered relative humidity
north of the border frontal passage looks mainly dry and will limit probability of precipitation to
international border region closest to upper low. This will be the
warmest day of the week as thermal ridge axis crosses the forecast area.
Based on current guidance boundary should be mainly east of the forecast area
at prime heating so any associated convective potential looks to be
east of the forecast area.

Cold front drops through the forecast area Wednesday night/Thursday am.
Models differ on precipitation potential in cold advection zone so will
keep probability of precipitation as is. Temperatures following frontal passage will cool down much
closer to seasonal averages.

Long term (fri through mon)...
deep area of low pressure well into northeast Canada as extended
period begins...with just weak high pressure covering the northern
plains. But by this time cooler air is once again in place as
illustrated by the -5 to -10 850mb temperatures in place during Friday.
Essentially zonal flow looks likely for the weekend with surface temperatures
staying close to seasonal averages in the middle to upper 40s for
maxes. Next chance for precipitation would be at end of the cycle where a
diffuse low center is prognosticated to traverse the north Central Plains.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1228 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Area of -ra and -shra heading from valley to ktvf/kbji at this
time...but shd be through entire region by 21-00z. Wind shift to northwest as
boundary passes through from kgfk-kfar-ktvf-kbji early to middle
afternoon with gustiness at times vicinity kfar. Otherwise VFR ceiling
lifting/becoming sky clear with time in wake of boundary.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...voelker
long term...wjb/voelker
aviation...wjb

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