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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

issued at 644 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

No changes needed.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 403 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Main forecast challenges will be the persistent smoke and
convective chances starting up again later tonight through Wednesday night.
As of early this morning conditions across the forecast area were pretty
quiet. No metar sites had any visibility issues and the only clouds
were in the far NE. When the sun set last night the smoke layer
was west and northwest of the forecast area. Not expecting the smoke to be much of
an issue today but will see what the visible imagery shows when
the sun rises today. Highs should be warmer than Monday but still
on the cooler side of normal. As the surface high slides off to the
east tonight models bring some light precipitation into the western forecast area and
eventually the valley region. This is associated with relatively
weak forcing...weak low level jet and warm advection along with
possibly some weak short wave energy as the upper jet holds over
the forecast area too. Weak surface boundary moves into the forecast area on Wednesday with models
showing some 60f dew point values pooling along it. Will have to
see what kind of cloud cover lingers over the area from the Tuesday
night convection which could affect surface heating Wednesday. At this point
models still show up to 1000 j/kg cape and 0-6km bulk shear
around 30kts. May have a little better short wave action/upper jet
strength and cooler 500mb temperatures overhead which could lead to a few
stronger storms.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 403 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Some of the showers/thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday evening but
looking like they should dissipate overnight. The Thursday into Thursday
night time frame still looks dry with Thursday temperatures finally climbing
back toward normal.

For Friday through Sunday...split flow forecast to consolidate
through the period. Long wave upper level ridge over the Southern
Plains forecast to build into the High Plains while long wave
upper low over the Hudson Bay will shift into northeast Canada.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) were in good agreement at the beginning of the
period. The European model (ecmwf) becomes faster then the GFS by the end of the
period. Will blend the GFS and European model (ecmwf).

Little change to high temperatures on Friday. Temperatures increased a degree or two
in the north on Sat. High temperatures increased three to five degrees
on sun and two to four degrees on Monday from yesterdays forecast


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 644 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

May be a few cumulus clouds around by late morning into the
afternoon...but will only mention some increasing cirrus clouds by
late morning into the afternoon for now. Expect middle clouds later
tonight with some showers/thunderstorms possible around 06z at kdvl. These
should not affect any of the other tafs until after 12z Wednesday. Winds
will be light or south-southwest around 10 knots today into tonight.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...godon
long term...godon/hoppes

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