Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
issued at 939 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
Forecast challenge continues to be clouds and temperatures.
Eastward progression of clearing line right over Red River
valley...from international border to about Hillsboro before going into west
central Minnesota...has halted and it appears overcast will stay all night for
northwest Minnesota and most of west central Minnesota. The coldest temperatures are in far eastern
ND where the area is just behind the clearing line and had a brief
period where the middle cloud deck had not yet arrived...and with
some remaining snow the area cooled down to around 20. Counties
along international border may see upper teems however remainder of area
should generally be in low to middle 20s with overcast east and mostly
cloudy west. Made minor temperature adjustments across north and
prolonged 100s for sky grids...other than that forecast in good shape.
Update issued at 700 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
Current low cloud deck is roughly along and east of the Red River
valley...with eastern ND gradually seeing increased middle cloud.
Forecast challenge tonight will be sky and associated temperatures. Will
adjust forecast for current trends with no significant changes...if
needed...until 00z data comes in.
Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 301 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
Main forecast challenges will be temperatures and then the next chance
of precipitation Wednesday/Wednesday night. Like previous shift do not have a lot of
confidence for the Wednesday/Wednesday night event given recent model
performance. As for this afternoon...the cloud band has shifted
all the way down through kfar and kbwp. Temperatures have been falling for
most of the forecast area after late morning/early afternoon highs. Far SW forecast area
is the only spot yet to see the cooling. Weak surface high will drop
down into the area tonight with warm advection taking over again.
With light winds and some clear holes...question is whether there
will be any fog formation. Visible satellite shows very little
snow cover over eastern ND other than possibly the kdvl region.
Think middle level clouds will continue to spill into the area
tonight with the warm advection keeping any clearing minimal.
Also with such minimal snow cover do not think there was much
melting to contribute much moisture to the boundary layer today.
Therefore will leave fog mentioned across the far west/SW and not
expand the mention for now. Will let the next shift take another
look at it. Will see surface winds turn back to the south on Tuesday as
warm advection continues. Straight south winds not great for
warming so best warming should be in areas that see sun. Any
threat of light snow should stay north of the Canadian border Tuesday
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 301 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
Models bring some light snow into areas north of the Highway 2
corridor Wednesday and sink it south Wednesday night. Currently expect maybe
an inch or so at most with this...but as we have seen this is
subject to change or toward even lower amounts. Conditions will
dry out on Thursday but temperatures will be a little cooler.
For Thursday night through Monday...temperatures should cool to near normal by
this weekend. There are still no major storms expected...with
perhaps some light snow late this week ahead of the cool down.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 700 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
MVFR deck is roughly along and just east of the Red River vally in
vicinity of surface ridge. Expect gradually clearing form west to east in
west central and northwest Minnesota tonight...although middle cloud will move over but
MVFR deck should dissipate gradually throughout the evening. Gfk
and far right on the fringe and could see ASOS hits at bkn015 due
to clouds mainly to east...but this should only occur over next
couple of hours before the western edge erodes and moves far enough