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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
927 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

issued at 927 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Showers over the western part of ND continue to move
east...although there has been a weakening trend. Not much
instability to work with at this point. Think that there will be
not much moving into our western counties until this
afternoon...with the best chances after 21z. Made some minor
adjustments to probability of precipitation...including extending some low probability of precipitation into the
northwestern counties as the short range models have been showing
some further northward extent with this initial round and not just
the northern branch shortwave later tonight. Will continue to keep
highs around 80 degrees.

Update issued at 650 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

No changes at this update.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 402 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

The Gem was the fastest solution and the European model (ecmwf) the slowest with the
GFS and NAM compromises. Will blend the slower solutions of the
European model (ecmwf) and the GFS.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure over northern
Alberta. Also a short wave was located over central Montana. Montana short
wave/jet streak forecast to move into eastern ND late this
afternoon. Low level jet to respond over South Dakota and NE. Increased probability of precipitation a
bit over the southern zones for this afternoon.

Trimmed back probability of precipitation in the west for late tonight with passage of short
wave. Also cold front forecast to move in late tonight but majority
of precipitation to occur in southern Canada. Probability of precipitation tweaked for Friday but
precipitation mainly over the south and east zones with slow moving cold
front. Some return flow precipitation expected on Sat and precipitation in the
northern zones for Sat night with upper trough moving across southern

Temperatures tweaked a bit...generally a degree or two higher for high

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 402 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Sunday to Wednesday...models in good agreement and have been
consistent with highly anomalous deep 500mb trough pushing down into
the northern plains Sunday into Monday. In the blyr northerly winds
develop Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday with 850mb 25kt
winds bringing 4c temperatures over the region. With strong upper forcing
and steep low level lapse rates expecting showers to develop Monday
with near record low maximum temperatures that afternoon. Temperatures will slowly
moderate as surface high pressure builds into the High Plains Tuesday
and slides east for Wednesday. Needless to say well below normal
temperatures are expected as this unusual July pattern develops.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 650 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Patchy fog was around the far eastern zones this morning but appears
to be lifted already. Some high level clouds expected to move
through today with ceilings around 20 thousand feet. Winds will be higher
for today and from the south.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...hoppes
long term...jk

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