Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
issued at 955 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
We will add some patchy fog to the north and northwest through 19z. There
is a band of low clouds/fog advecting to the south in NE ND.
Otherwise...temperatures may not get quite as warm within this low
cloud/fog band and have lowered maximum temperatures a few degrees.
Have also removed any mention of precipitation today.
Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 334 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
The forecast challenge revolves around snow system tonight
The Gem (canadian) which last night was the farthest south solution
looks to be the Winner as all other models have trended much
farther south with surface low track and axis of heaviest snow
fall. This will spare most if not nearly all of the forecast area from
Current radar imagery showing band of returns from central ND southeast
into NE South Dakota just ahead of weak surface boundary. Models look to be
over doing quantitative precipitation forecast as have yet to see any ground truth from metars
with ceilings in vicinity still in the middle levels. Will maintain some low
end probability of precipitation across this area to be safe. With surface temperatures in
this band in the middle 30s expect any precipitation reaching the ground to be
rain or snow showers with minimal accumulations. Otherwise remainder
of forecast area should remain dry as surface low continues to organize over
the northern High Plains. Temperatures will be starting out mild
and will stick pretty close to inherited maximum temperatures.
Surface low propagates to the southeast corner of South Dakota by morning.
Deformation snow band will begin to organize by midnight as column
cools and continues Tuesday. Could initially see a brief mix
however should be short lived. How far north the band will reach
is still somewhat in question. Snow ratios will be relatively low
with the Gem and European model (ecmwf) keeping main snow band south of the forecast area.
GFS and NAM are farther north but have less confidence with these
solutions. Made a significant cut in probability of precipitation farther north as little
or snow now expected with southern solution. With event later
tonight feel one last look at future model runs this morning will
determine if snow amounts worthy of headlines will be necessary.
Column cools overnight but cloud cover will limit temperature
Snow will continue across the far southeast Tuesday morning diminishing
during the afternoon. Not much cooling through the column however
clouds will limit any recovery.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 345 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
Snow will end Tuesday night across the far east with temperatures
hinging on degree of clearing.
Wednesday to Sunday...models in good agreement with northwest flow aloft
for the second half of the week. Only chance of precipitation for the area is
Thursday night into Friday as a short wave flattens the northwest flow and
brings a band of snow to the area. Cold surface high pressure follows
with another cold snap in store for the weekend. Near normal temperatures
through Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s...then much below normal
for Sat and sun with highs in the teens and 20s.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 633 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
Ceilings not anticipated to change much across the region today. MVFR
ceilings across NE forecast area with bji and tvf on southern fringe have moved
little. Expect these site could vary between MVFR and VFR during
the day. The remainder of the forecast area should see VFR ceilings to hold
during the period.