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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

issued at 1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

There are still a few showers across portions of Benson County
but they appear to be decreasing in coverage. Therefore will not
extend the mention of showers any longer but will monitor. The
thicker clouds across the kdvl region have held temperatures down a bit
so will lower highs there a few degrees too. Rest of forecast in
good shape.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 335 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

There will be a battle between the dry surface high and shortwaves
riding over the upper ridge and into this region. 00z models in
decent agreement and will use a blend for details. Most guidance
suggests today will be dry...with isolated/scattered showers on
Thursday. Instability will remain very weak...limiting the
potential for strong storms. Temperatures near or slightly below
normal values.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 335 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Thursday night-Friday night...a strong upper low propagating
across southern Canada will be just north of Montana by Friday
afternoon. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will
increase moisture and resultant instability. A surface trough will
propagate across the region during this period...along with precipitation
chances. The best thunder potential will be Friday
afternoon/evening during peak heating. Although low-level forcing
will be weak...the potential for strong to severe storms will
exist during the afternoon hours (although coverage will be quite

And now for Rogers last discussion at fgf...

Saturday-Tuesday...Saturday through Tuesday night...medium-range
models in good agreement showing eastern Pacific short-wave
traversing the forecast area Saturday from northwest to southeast
and then being ingested into larger Hudson Bay low across the
Great Lakes. Associated surface low skirts the northwest angle before
diving into the Minnesota arrowhead. Majority of precipitation remains to the
north of the low until Saturday night when its cold front moves
across the forecast area. Will keep all blend chance probability of precipitation Sat/Sat
night with drying from west to east on Sunday. Monday/Tuesday look
mostly dry as surface high pressure drifts across the northern plains.
Expect little day to day variation in temperatures with highs in the middle
70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid-50s.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1246 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Some cellular cumulus forming just east of forecast area...believe
scattered VFR deck likely to form vicinity kbji this afternoon.
Otherwise light winds...trending southeast later today and tonight...before
increasing above 10kt later in taf period Thursday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...



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