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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

issued at 658 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

Forecast on track. Enhanced clouds associated with leading edge of short
wave moving south entering NE ND/far northwest Minnesota at this time. Seeing a few weak
returns on radar with this and Portage mb reports -sn at 11z. So
idea of a few spits/flurries with short wave seems reasonable northern
valley and northwest Minnesota.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 258 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

One 500 mb shortwave near Fargo early this morning with surface low
north of Valley City. As this wave and surface low passes east-
southeast winds turning northeast and then north through the early
morning. Lingering light rain showers over parts of northern
Minnesota mainly bemidj area southward through middle morning. Upstream
is another short wave which will rapidly drop south-southeast from
central Manitoba toward Lake Superior today. Expect a fast moving
surge of cold air to drop through the area today...with north wind
gusts 20 to 30 kts this afternoon. Stratocu with this feature upstream
and some light precipitation on observation at Dauphin Manitoba. This cloud band
will drop south into the area this morning and models hint at some
light precipitation chances with this wave mainly northern Red River through northwest Minnesota.
Skies will clear middle to late afternoon over NE ND as strong drying
occurs in the low levels due to cold advection. Temperatures will rise
some today but likely stabilize or fall a few middle to late afternoon.
High pressure to move into eastern/central ND by 12z Friday and with a
mainly clear sky and diminishing wind expect lows in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Sunny Friday as high moves overhead with
southeasterly return flow winds setting up Friday late afternoon in eastern
ND. Cool day Friday with highs in the 30s.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 258 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

South-southeasterly surface winds to increase Friday night into Saturday
ahead of next system which will move into Montana. Very dry airmass
at the low levels so no precipitation through Saturday night but there will
be a period of warm advection middle-high cloudiness.

Sunday-Wednesday...upper ridge overhead to begin the period will
move east as the next system propagates along the international
border. This system will bring precipitation chances to the region later
Monday into early Tuesday...with another fast moving wave a day or
so later. Precipitation amounts will be very light...and mostly liquid
(although a few snow flakes could be possible). Temperatures near or
slightly above normal values.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 658 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

Upper level short wave to drop quickly southeast through the area
this morning as surface low departs to our east. Expect winds to
be north-northwest and increase all areas late morning into the
afternoon with gusts to near 30 kts especially in the Red River. There is
considerable cloud cover either with departing surface low in
Minnesota or dropping south from Manitoba. Predominately MVFR ceilings
until high pressure and clearing works south. Already seeing
scattering of clouds entering the interlake region of Manitoba so
will need to watch clearing trends to better time clearing through
the day. Clear sky tonight into Friday with light winds.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle

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