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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

issued at 634 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

No changes necessary this update period.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 330 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Forecast challenges concern precipitation chances today/tonight and
temperatures. Models in fair agreement through the period.

In the near term dense fog continues from Devils Lake basin into
the northern valley. Guidance holds visibility down through the am so
have issued dense fog advisory.

Short wave of concern entering western Saskatchewan will propagate east-southeast
affecting forecast area later today. Models consistent in keeping main core
of precipitation north of Canadian border. GFS which is farthest south with
developing precipitation really does not bring lower condensation pressure
deficits south of international border until close to 00z then exits
forecast area to the east at 06z. With lack of isentropic lift not much
confidence in snow coverage with the system. Maintained highest
probability of precipitation along international border area of northwest Minnesota. Overall snow
accumulations which do occur should be less than an inch. With
clouds and cold advection minimal temperature recovery expected.

Expect any snow to end quickly late evening as wave pushes east.
Think mixing and cloud cover should keep temperatures from falling
off too far.

Cold advection continues Thursday so again thermal recovery will
be minimal.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

High pressure builds into the forecast area Thursday night. Clearing...light
winds and colder column should allow temperatures to drop off close
to seasonal averages. Warm advection and return flow may allow
temperatures to level off after midnight from Valley West.

Kept low probability of precipitation across the north Friday with weak short wave
passage. Should see some temperature recovery with warmer column
and next cold frontal passage holding off until Friday night. Good
push of cold advection behind frontal passage Friday night will start
downward slide of temperatures.

For Saturday-Sunday...upper level trough over the area with associated
surface high pressure will keep cooler weather over the area.

By Monday...the upper level flow becomes more zonal as the ridge
over the intermountain west amplifies and shifts east. Return flow
behind the surface ridge will signal a return to warmer temperatures
by the middle of the week. An area of low pressure will cross the
area by the end of the period...bringing a chance for light precipitation and
a return to cooler temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 634 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Maintained IFR/LIFR conditions through much of the day. There
could be some improvement later in the afternoon with the passage
of a cold front.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for ndz006>008-



short term...voelker
long term...Hopkins/voelker

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