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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 323 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Issue to start the day is clearing trend in Minnesota forecast area and fog
in eastern ND. Low clouds clearing east and southeast at a decent clip
and clearing should make it into far eastern forecast area 12z-15z period.
High pressure settling over the Red River valley this early
morning. Where skies cleared earlier temperatures settled down to around
32f and fog has become more widespread from Langdon to Valley
City to Oakes. Webcams starting to show more fog as well in spots.
Hrrr highlights fog area quite well and maintains western forecast area in
fog as well as parts of the far northern valley into Kittson County Minnesota
through 15z. So issued a dense fog advection through 15z for thsoe areas. Will
watch to see if fog can expand east into the Red River proper as skies
now have cleared. O/west today will feature some high clouds dropping
southeast as upper ridge builds a bit into the High Plains. Look
for warmer temperatures with upper 50s to low 60s most areas.

Tonight will see a south wind up enough to keep fog form forming.
Some middle level cloud cover likely to skirt the northeastern forecast
area in 850 mb warm advection zone. Saturday will be a very warm day
with a southwest wind and highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Record
temperatures at Grand Forks and Fargo in the middle 80s. Expect close but
not quite reaching those values.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 323 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Mild Saturday night...then Sunday will see the approach of a
potent 500 mb trough and surface front. Main energy and thus best rain
chances north of the international border. But enough lift along front and
enough height falls for some showers into eastern ND/northwest Minnesota with front
arrival late afternoon and evening. Thermal ridge into the central and
southern Red River at peak heating with 850 mb temperatures 20-23c. A bit windy as
well with a southwest wind. All signs point to middle 80s in this
warm sector which will be near or break record highs at Grand
Forks and Fargo.

Monday-Thursday...Columbus day will bring a return to reality...with
much cooler...yet seasonable temperatures in the 50s to low 60s and gusty
northwest the strong upper wave pushes into the Great Lakes.
Quite a bit of cloud cover may persist...especially eastward
into Minnesota...where a few showers are possible.

A quick rebound in temperatures back up into mainly the 60s to perhaps near
70 is expected on Tuesday as a surface trough/upper shortwave move
across the area. Northwest flow aloft and primarily dry weather are
expected to continue through middle/late week...with a gradual cooling
trend through late week towards typical middle-October temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1138 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

Slow clearing of MVFR/low VFR ceilings continues from northwest-southeast at 10 to
15kts. With clearing seeing patchy MVFR/IFR fog development and
expect this to expand as clearing continues. Once fog lifts later
this morning conditions will be VFR through the remainder of the


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...frost advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ndz006-007-014-

Dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for ndz006>008-

Minnesota...dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for mnz004.



Short term...Riddle
long term...makowski/Riddle

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