Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
345 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 336 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Water vapor shows short wave in central ND early this morning with a
weak surface low in west-central ND. Upper wave and surface low will move
northeast today. Surface low will strenghten some as it moves into
southeastern Manitoba this afternoon. A cold front southwest from
the surface low will be near a Hallock Minnesota-Michigan ND-Jamestown line near
21z. Some heating will occur ahead of this front today with highs up
near 80. GFS has a bit more bulk shear than NAM...and with dew points
prognosticated by GFS in the low 60s MUCAPE in the 2000-2200 j/kg range
is possible 21z-00z period in a corridor about 50 miles ahead of
front. Morning showers will gradually lift northeast early this
morning. Then redevelopment of T-storms in the unstable corridor
from far northwest Minnesota into ecntrl ND. The storms will then move
southeast. If we indeed get surface heating to near 80 and dew points
60-62...then I agree with Storm Prediction Center in that isolated severe storms are
possible. NSSL WRF/Storm Prediction Center WRF are all a tad slower than hrrr/rap.
T-storm threat will last a bit longer than earlier thought and onl
slowly exit far southeast ND/west-central Minnesota tonight. Clearing and cooler air
to work into dvl basin by 12z Friday.

Friday will be breezy and much cooler as high pressure builds
south.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 336 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

For Friday night lightest winds in north central ND-dvl basin.
Still idea present of some scattered frost dvl basin-Langdon-Cooperstown
area near dawn Saturday with lows 32-34 degrees. Saturday will see
sunshine but still cool with highs around 60. Increasing high
clouds Sat afternoon-night ahead of next short wave.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1130 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

The chances for showers and storms will increase overnight and
continue on Thursday. Southerly winds will increase late tonight and
Thursday...and gust to 25kt at times in the valley. A cold front
will shift winds to a northerly direction after 00z Friday behind a
cold front. There could be pockets of MVFR conditions near
stronger showers and storms through Thursday.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Riddle
long term...hoppes/Riddle
aviation...dk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations