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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Update...
issued at 940 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

No significant updates planned for this evening. Winds and cloud
cover continue to diminish.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 256 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

The main forecast challenge will be precipitation chances which will pick
up again by Wednesday afternoon. As for now...looking at quiet northwest flow.
Little breezier conditions with some scattered-broken cumulus late this
afternoon should give way to clearing skies and light winds again
overnight. Went with min temperatures tonight a little cooler than
guidance. Tuesday should be very similar to today although winds
should be lower.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Model differences remain with the Wednesday afternoon and overnight
potential precipitation event. American models were very consistent in
depicting the best chances at 18z between kbis and kabr. Then they
would drop these into eastern South Dakota into west central Minnesota...in the
axis of better moisture. European model (ecmwf) shows the best chances at 18z Wednesday
over western ND...shifting through our entire forecast area Wednesday night. At this
point Storm Prediction Center has area in general thunder but would hope to see
better model consistency with this event. Not seeing a consistent
signal into Thursday either although overall trend seems drier. Will
leave some low precipitation chances to blend with adjacent offices
although it could very well be dry too.

Thursday night through Monday...guidance depicts a more active zonal
flow for the end of the week and upcoming weekend period.
Uncertainty exists in the timing of the short waves and
associated fropas...convective clusters. But the most opportune
time for pronounced cold frontal approach and passage looks like
Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure likely to remain north
of border but increasing shear and forcing could come together for
severe event during this time frame. Weekend into Monday should be
dry most of the time so only marginal chance probability of precipitation maintained as
ripples move through. Maximum temperatures will depend on cloud
cover...daytime highs in the middle to upper 70s are
expected...values that are not far from seasonal averages.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 638 CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Northwesterly boundary layer flow should dimminish with sunset and
become light and variable overnight into Tuesday forenoon.
Scattered VFR ceilings over northcentral Minnesota should also diminish with
sunset... with fair skies expected through the day on Tuesday.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...gust
short term...godon
long term...wjb/godon
aviation...gust

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