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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

issued at 635 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

The light snow band across the north is likely producing a dusting
or so...with visibilities briefly going down to about 2-3sm. This band is
prognosticated to weaken this morning...then another band of light snow
should develop over the far northeast by noon. Accumulations today
will be under 1 inch where it does snow...and have lowered accums.
Have increased south winds a bit today with some gusts to around
15-20kt possible.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 330 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

The main challenge will be light snow today in northwest Minnesota...then
another chance for light snow ahead of a cold front Sat in the
south. Confidence is fairly high with this forecast with regard to
cold air that will overspread region Saturday/Sat night.

For today...there will be some light snow early this morning in
extreme NE ND into northwest Minnesota near an upper jet streak...and middle level
warm air advection/isentropic lift. This area of light snow will shift to the
northeast into the far northeastern areas of Lake of The
Woods/northern Beltrami County this afternoon into this evening.
There could be up to an inch of snow. Elsewhere...clouds should
persist for all but the far west with temperatures once again above normal.

For should be dry as the cold front begins to move
from north to south. Temperatures should fall into the single digits
north to the teens south.

On Sat...northerly winds will become brisk to perhaps windy at
times...with temperatures nearly steady or perhaps even falling a few
degrees. It will feel cold given the fact we have been mild...and
the wind chills will fall to around 20 below in the north. There
will be a chance for light snow moving into the western areas by
Sat afternoon ahead of a shortwave.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 330 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

For Sat night...the main concern will be the potential for some
light snow in the south and wind chills. If snow falls in the
south...winds gusting to around 25-30mph could produce some
blowing snow. There could also be around an inch of snow in the
far south...although with cold/dry high quickly building
in...models could be overdone with quantitative precipitation forecast/snow so feeling that snow
amounts will be on the light side. It will be cold though with
temperatures falling below zero in all areas.

On Sunday...expect a dry and cold day with temperatures struggling to
reach zero in the far north to single digits above in other areas.
High pressure will settle over the valley by expect
plentiful sunshine and winds becoming light.

Monday-Thursday...the persistent northwest flow pattern will
continue through this time frame. The region will likely remain on
the cool side of the low-level thermal gradient...keeping temperatures
quite a bit cooler than the past few weeks...but nothing unusual for
early February...especially with the absence of deep snow cover. The
main uncertainty will be with weak disturbances dropping through the
flow during the early to middle part of the week. As is often the
case in with such systems...the predictability (timing and
location)is quite low at this range...with poor model
agreement...leading to low confidence in details. However...light
snowfall accumulations would be possible with any of these systems.
The GFS/European model (ecmwf) do indicate a colder air mass for Wednesday with 850
mb temperatures down to -20c. However...being on the western fringe of this
air models/ensemble guidance indicate a quick rebound
in temperatures towards next weekend as the surface high moves east and
low-level warm advection develops.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 635 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

A band of MVFR ceilings will slowly move east today...and could linger
even into this evening/overnight in the valley. Southerly winds
will shift to the north overnight behind the cold front...and gust
to around 25kt after frontal passage.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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