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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 250 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Main challenge tonight will be temperatures and frost potential. Temperatures
have been slow to rise today with much of the area still in the
low 50s. Have some dew point values across the east in the middle to
upper 20s. The weak surface high will drift into the western Great
Lakes tonight and will keep winds the lightest across the far
eastern forecast area. Guidance temperatures in this area show the potential for
some areas to dip into the lower 30s. After coordination with
neighbors will issue a frost advisory for that area. Will get into
better return flow on Sunday although highs will still remain
below normal. Question for Sunday is whether any of the showers
that form to the west will hold together long enough to reach our
SW forecast area. Most models either show the showers dissipating or just
brushing the SW forecast area. Sunday night will be dry with low temperatures
finally out of the 30s.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Will continue with dry conditions into Monday. Next chance for
precipitation comes Monday night...and more so for Tuesday. Models still differ on
the placement of the surface low and where any heavier precipitation will be.
Day 4 Storm Prediction Center outlook for Tuesday has a portion of the SW forecast area highlighted
for severe this will bear watching.

Tuesday night through Saturday...a fairly active pattern remains in
place with southwesterly flow aloft and various weak shortwaves
coming into the region. The deterministic models differ on the exact
timing and strength of the shortwaves...which is to be expected with
such features. There are in pretty good agreement on one such
shortwave moving through during the start of the kept
likely probability of precipitation going for Tuesday night. Severe is not out of the
question at this point but too soon for any details. Kept probability of precipitation
during the rest of the period in the chance category as there is
still a lot of uncertainty with the timing of the shortwaves coming
through. The European model (ecmwf) tries to give US a break on Friday as the flow
amplifies and upper ridging briefly builds into the plains. The GFS
is more wet...and even with rising heights we could get ridge riders
so kept probability of precipitation in the 20-30 percent range rather than going completely
dry. Temperatures should be slightly above average throughout the period.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

VFR conditions will continue throughout the period with increasing
cirrus clouds. Northeast winds at around 12 kts at times will
decrease and shift around to the east...then southeast by Sunday
morning as high pressure moves off to the east. There is the
possibility of some precipitation in southeastern North Dakota tomorrow
morning but think it will stay south and west of the taf sites at
this time.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am CDT Sunday for mnz006-009-017-



Short term...godon
long term...godon/Jr

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