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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

issued at 655 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

No sig updates planned this early morning. Radar shows isolated
weak returns /possible virga/ in the area with organized
convection just beginning to move into southcentral ND at this time.
Latest RUC and hrrr updates trending to somewhat less robust
convection into our area. Regional radar loop shows two main areas
of organized deep convection... one associated with the main
surface low in southeast South Dakota and the other associated with the
disturbance moving northeastward through central South Dakota.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 340 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Today and tonight...convection continues to fire across western and
central South Dakota in advance of a middle-level lifting
out of the southern stream 500 mb trough over southeast Colorado. Both
00z and 06z nam40 have been pretty aggressive on bringing that
increased moisture and energy into southeast ND by sunrise and
over most of the area /alg and south of Highway 2/ throughout the day.
Meanwhile...models are in fair agreement on bringing the main
surface low center into southeastern South Dakota by early evening and
across southern Minnesota later tonight. With that... the main deep
moisture push should remain focused well south of the Red River
basin... thus am currently discounting the heavier precipitation bulls eye
which the rogue 00z GFS has targeted into the southern Red River
basin area. clouds depart the west central Minnesota region during the
early morning we can expect increasing clouds to begin descending
into the area through northeast ND... ahead of an approaching
northern stream cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should accompany that feature during the early part of Friday...
with skies rapidly clearing behind the front from northwest to
southeast by late Friday afternoon and early evening.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 340 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Fast and furious is the weekend.

Friday night through Saturday...a cool and dry Friday night should
give way to a sunny and dry Saturday. Expect a seasonably cool
surface high pressure cell to slip across the area through
midday... with increasing southerly winds bringing temperatures back up
to near seasonal normals through late afternoon. A flattened and
fast 500 mb flow should have the next storm system approaching from
the west late Saturday evening into the overnight.

Sunday through Wednesday...long wave trough settles in over western
North America. Also a long wave trough move across southern
Canada by the end of the period. Lng wave ridge over the southeast
US builds north by the end of the period. The GFS is a little
faster at the beginning of the period and the European model (ecmwf) becomes
slightly faster by the end of the period. Upper level jet is south
of the area sun and Monday. Then shifts north of the area by Wednesday.
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) precipitation are trending more to the southeast over
the last couple model runs. Will blend the two models.

Little change to temperatures...a degree or so lower on sun and a degree or
two high for Tuesday and Wednesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday night)
issued at 655 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Expect increasing VFR ceilings into the southern and central Red River
through 16z...with fair skies over far northwest Minnesota. Middle to low
level ceilings will overspread the southern two thirds of the forecast area
through the daytime with areas showers and isolated thunderstorms
much of the day. Late afternoon and evening hours will have scattered
skies moving from eastern ND into northwest Minnesota... with lingering
clouds across the far southeast forecast area into the overnight. Increasing
southerly winds expected through the day.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gust
long term...gust/hoppes

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