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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
906 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

Update...
issued at 905 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

No sig forecast updates are needed this late evening. Expect
light southerly winds overnight with temperatures slowly cooling
into the upper 50s by midnight...and the upper 40s near sunrise.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 233 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

Forecast challenge for the short term will be temperatures as
chances for precipitation Saturday and Saturday night are
diminishing as models continue to slow down precipitation moving
into southeastern ND and the southern valley. Will use model blend
for temperatures and expect mostly clear skies this evening and
tonight...with sky increasing south to north after 12z tomorrow. An
upper ridge aloft will keep atms stable enough to limit precipitation to
the far southern tier of counties...if any.

Tonight...light winds...clear skies and temperatures in the upper 40s as
high pressure remains in area.

Tomorrow...12z NAM brings middle level moisture into southern valley
between 09z and 12z...spreading north to about the Highway 2 corridor
and then stalling. This will keep the northern third of County Warning Area clear
and a return of middle 70s temperatures across the north...with temperatures
struggling to climb into the 70s south of Highway 200. Upper ridge
aloft will inhibit convection.

Tomorrow night....models to flirt with some precipitation south of I 94
corridor in the 09z to 12z timeframe...but with upper ridge axis
oriented southeast to northwest across southern zones...stability parameters are
unimpressive. Have pulled probability of precipitation until 09z Sun morning other than
the far southern edge of County Warning Area for blending purposes.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 233 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

Sunday and Monday...upper ridge axis will finally begin to shift
northeast and some showers may begin to spread south to north
into the County Warning Area however atms remains stable with very low MUCAPES
through sun and Sun night. MUCAPES finally begin to increase on
Monday...which is when upper wave moves into northern tier.
Depending on where the h500 low tracks...could see another cold
air funnel scenario set up Monday afternoon. However many variables to
consider this far out. With models varying on track of low and
placement of precipitation...will use superblend for probability of precipitation and keep
likelies mainly across the southern half of County Warning Area. Also will go with
straight convection as MUCAPES are on the rise.

For Monday night through Friday...not a lot of agreement among
models although they do all show the potential for thunderstorm
activity. The main question...as always...will be degree of moisture
return (ecmwf is slower with a cold front by the end of the week and
allows more moisture return/instability). The superblend extended
solution has probability of precipitation/weather most periods which seems reasonable. With that
said...mainly dealing with convective type activity and widespread
rainfall does not appear likely. Temperatures will be near normal
values.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 645 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

Mainly fair skies and light southerly winds through the overnight
and early morning hours. Increasing VFR ceilings into southeastern ND
and west central Minnesota by 18z... with scattered VFR ceilings and visibilities showers
and isolated thunderstorms after 20z... mainly across the southern forecast area.



&&

Hydrology...
issued at 645 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015

The Two Rivers river in Kittson County /near Hallock/ will
continue a slow decline...dropping below minor flood stage by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...river Flood Warning /minor/ continues for Kittson County.

&&

$$

Update...gust
short term...speicher
long term...tg/speicher
aviation...gust
hydrology...Hopkins

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