Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Update...
issued at 939 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Low clouds west of the Red River are being stubborn and hanging
around a bit longer this morning...although most of the fog has
dissipated. Think that the clouds will linger for a few more hours
before dissipating completely this afternoon. Still think that the
North Dakota side will get into the low 90s...but will monitor in
case the clouds hang around a bit longer and keep US a few degrees
cooler than expected.

Update issued at 630 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

No changes needed this morning. Plenty of low clouds and patchy
fog will continue through about 14z or 15z before burning off.

&&

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 330 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

The main challenge will be convective chances and temperatures. Models
continue in good agreement overall...with the European model (ecmwf) and NAM very
similar and preferred.

For today...it will be hot with heat indices around 100 this
afternoon. There will be morning fog and low clouds that we will
mention through 14z or so.

On Friday...convective chances will increase from west to east
through the day. Expect a shortwave to move into the region by
Friday afternoon/evening. There will be ample moisture with precipitable waters
around 2 inches Friday evening...and MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg. The
stronger deep layered shear remains to the west...but given fairly
strong instability/moisture...some severe storms possible Friday
afternoon and overnight near the surface boundary.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

For Friday night through Sat night...showers and storms may
become likely as low level jet increases during the evening. A surface boundary
will remain nearly stationary and will likely focus several rounds
of storms through Saturday night. Given the instability and
moisture profile...even with weaker shear a few severe storms will
be possible. Heavy rain could also become a threat near area that
get repeated thunderstorms given very high precipitable waters near 2 inches.

Sunday-Wednesday...the upper low finally will eject into the High
Plains on Sunday with a cold front pushing through the region.
Depending on the timing of the frontal passage and degree of
destabilization ahead of the front...some strong storms are possible
somewhere over the region as the warm moist air mass remains in
place preceding the boundary and deep layer wind fields strengthen.

Monday will be mainly dry...breezy and cooler as the surface low lifts
into southern Canada. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through middle
week with many areas remaining in the 60s for highs. Currently have
a mainly dry forecast Tue-Wed...although model variability becomes
much greater during this time...leading to low forecast
confidence.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities continue with low clouds and patchy fog.
The hrrr slowly erodes these clouds and fog around 15z...and have
gone VFR thereafter. Some areas could hold on a bit longer...with
southerly winds gusting over 20kt possible this afternoon.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...Jr
short term...dk
long term...dk/makowski
aviation...dk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations