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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

issued at 645 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Made some tweaks to fit current cloud cover trends. Also adjusted
hourly temperatures the clouds have allowed temperatures
in those areas to rise slightly.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 312 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Cold will be the main challenge for the period.

Northwesterly flow aloft continues...with another weak shortwave
coming down the eastern rockies into western ND today. The main
surface low and precipitation band will be mostly to our southwest...but some
of the model runs have some precipitation clipping the Ransom/Sargent
area this afternoon and evening. Kept some low probability of precipitation in the far
southwest...but think that if any snow occurs at all it will be a
dusting at best.

Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday but still
showing a big gradient from the colder northeast to the southwest
which should approach 20 this afternoon. Tonight...northwest flow
aloft continues but the main upper low to the east digs down
through Ontario...which will help push an Arctic high pressure
center down into the region. Cold air advection will be offset
somewhat by clouds...but a decent pressure gradient on the front
end of the high winds will make it seem even colder. Wind chills
in parts of the northern County Warning Area should get down to advisory
criteria...depending on exact clearing trends and how fast temperatures

The Arctic high will be firmly in place during the day on
Friday...with high temperatures in much of the central and northern County Warning Area
not getting above zero even with sun. Winds will be slowly
diminishing but could see at least some areas down near 25 below
zero for much of the day.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 312 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...the Arctic high will shift
slightly to the east at the start of the period. With mostly clear
skies and light winds temperatures across much of the eastern County Warning Area will
drop to near 20 below zero with slightly higher temperatures in the west
where south winds will pick up late. The south winds will continue
into Saturday and Saturday night as the next upper trough moves
from The Rockies into the plains. The best upper support seems at
this point it will be to our south...but some light snow will be
possible as the surface trough axis comes out late Saturday into
Saturday night. Snow amounts should be fairly light...but with
south winds still rather breezy some blowing snow could be an
issue at times. Will monitor future model runs.

Sunday through Wednesday...the period should start out with
warming temperatures and some snow in warm advection band on Sunday.
Otherwise...northwest flow aloft remains the dominant pattern through the
period...with another wave expected to cross the area Tuesday
night. This will bring another chance for measurable precipitation. Overall
temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the period.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 645 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

VFR conditions at all taf sites but kdvl. Kdvl is still reporting
-sn...and looking at web cams shows there are some flurries out included a mention for the next few hours. The models
persist in bringing in some MVFR ceilings into the County Warning Area later on this
afternoon...which fits with what is currently going on at kdvl and
sites further west and south. Included some MVFR conditions for a
while this afternoon and evening...but skies will begin to clear
out late in the period as high pressure builds into the area.
Light and variable winds will eventually shift around to the north
northwest by the end of the period at around 12 kts.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Jr
long term...Jr/Hopkins

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