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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Update...
issued at 931 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Based on latest guidance have added fog to the eastern forecast area where
temperatures dropping off a little quicker. No other changes.

Update issued at 641 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

No update necessary.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 337 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Upper level trough was over the Pacific northwest and an upper level
ridge was over ont/man. Pattern forecast to amplify through the
period as the upper trough settles into the western US.

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over southwest South Dakota and was
producing a few clouds over South Dakota. May produce a few clouds in the
southern zones this afternoon and evening.

Warm air aloft will move into the forecast area tonight and Thursday and
produce a cap across the area. Upper level trough over the Desert
Southwest will move into the northern plains Friday and produce severe
weather. Precipitable water was currently around an inch and is
forecast to approach 2 inches for Friday afternoon through Sat.
MUCAPES rise to 2000 to 2500 j/kg on Friday afternoon with better than
35 knots shear.

Quiescent weather forecast for tonight. Warmer Thursday with near
record highs combined with higher dewpoints will make apparent temperatures
in the 100-104 range for mainly southeast ND.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 337 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Saturday night through Wednesday...models continue on being in good
agreement on the overall shift to a cooler and more active
pattern...but differ on the timing of individual waves. There is
consensus on one lead shortwave coming through on Saturday night
before the main upper low ejects into eastern Montana/western ND on
Sunday. Kept likely probability of precipitation going for that time period. For early next
week there are variations on timing with the GFS bringing a strong
trough through on Tuesday and the European model (ecmwf) on Wednesday. Continued to
keep probability of precipitation there but fairly low and temperatures near or below seasonal
averages.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Fog formation will again be a challenge overnight. Numerical and
model guidance suggesting bji will again have potential for IFR fog
conditions and included in the taf. Will continue to look into
fog potential elsewhere.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...voelker
short term...hoppes
long term...Jr
aviation...voelker

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