Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...
issued at 938 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Other than a few minor tweaks to cloud cover...made very little
changes to the going forecast. Temperatures still seem on track to
top out in the low to middle 80s this afternoon. Some of the short
range models keep precipitation out of our area until after 00z but a few
of the high res runs continue to have some convective development
mainly over the southwestern County Warning Area. Given fairly low convective
temperatures will continue to keep 20-30 probability of precipitation for this afternoon over the
southern counties.
Update issued at 659 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
No changes for this update.
&&
Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 349 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
GFS and European model (ecmwf) were similar this period. The NAM was a much faster
solution and will not be used. Will blend the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS.
Upper level ridge axis over the area today slowly shift east through
the period. Short wave forecast to move through the area Thursday night
will produce thunderstorms.
Much drier and warmer air moves in around 800 hpa Thursday night.
Showers and thunderstorms expected with drier air moving into the
area. Severe weather will be possible for Thursday/Thursday night. Model
soundings indicate a more capped environment for Friday across parts of
the area.
Precipitable water rises to better than an inch and a half through
Thursday. Then drops with drier air temporarily moving through only to
rise again for Friday night. Little change to temperatures and probability of precipitation through
the period.
Long term...Saturday-Tuesday
issued at 349 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Models in good agreement indicating an upper low
to lift from the northwestern Continental U.S. Into central Canada on
Sunday...with zonal flow aloft resulting for Monday and Tuesday.
However...details regarding how and when this upper low will lift
out of the northwest Continental U.S. Very uncertain. There will likely be a couple
thunderstorm complexes within the Sat-sun timeframe...just not sure
about timing and strength. It would appear the potential exists for
a few stronger storms. Temperatures expected to be near normal
values.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 659 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
VFR conditions are expected for today with scattered to broken ceilings
around 5 thousand feet.
&&
Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&
$$
Update...Jr
short term...hoppes
long term...tg
aviation...hoppes
