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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
313 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 310 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Forecast challenges will be rain chances and temperatures. Models
in fair agreement and will use blend for forecast.

Weak surface boundary associated with middle level circulation
propagating across southern mb will slowly swing through the forecast area
tonight. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms and rain becoming more organized with modest
instability/cape although shear weak. Best coverage so far across the
north closer to circulation so will have a bit higher probability of precipitation this
area. Expect convection to diminish later this evening as wave
moves east coupled with loss of heating. Temperatures overnight
look seasonal.

As region remains in weak middle level cyclonic flow another weak
wave will swing through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Favored
instability and cape will be confined to the NE forecast area so limited probability of precipitation
there. Column warms a bit so if we can get enough solar
temperatures should recover close to average.

Again expect precipitation coverage to diminish during the evening with
loss of heating.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Stronger wave will dig into the northern rockies on Wednesday. As
heights fall low pressure organizes over the northern High Plains
with east-west boundary setting up across South Dakota into S Minnesota. Convection
should initiate along boundary during the afternoon lifting
northward Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm advection continues
but temperatures will hinge on degree of cloud cover.

Friday to Monday...some confidence in the forecast with model solutions
similar and reasonable given departing wave over Ontario Friday
morning. Overall a dry forecast with linger showers on Friday in northwest
Minnesota trailing departing system. 500mb northwest flow and surface high pressure to
give a dry and quiet weather weekend to the northern plains with
temperatures well within seasonal normals.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1242 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

VFR at all tafs sites this afternoon into the overnight...scattered
convection is possible this afternoon. Will go vcsh with possible
thunder though not enough confidence to currently add to taf at any
one location.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...voelker
long term...jk/voelker
aviation...voelker

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