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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

issued at 950 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

We have cancelled the Wind Chill Advisory. No other changes needed
for this update.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 109 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures. Models in fair
agreement and will use blend.

Surface high pressure will continue to drift southeast across Midwest
today. Fairly neutral thermal advection in weak westerly flow
should transitional into weak warm advection as wind flow becomes
more S-SW later today. Some cirrus may work into the region from the
north today as middle level trough begins to sag southward but
overall solar should help temperatures to recover into the teens
most areas.

Will see a bit more mixing tonight added with weak warm advection
to hold minimum temperatures in the single digits below zero most

Weak trough crosses forecast area on Saturday and may see more clouds around
however with warmer start and lack of deep snow cover temperatures
should continue a slow moderation. Will maintain low end probability of precipitation east
of trough across Minnesota however potential looks minor.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 109 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

Low level westerly flow as surface high pressure shifts east will
continue through Sunday. Temperatures to remain below average but
warmer than what we have been seeing recently.

Northwest flow regime to continue during extended forecast block.
Milder weekend temperatures will still be evident as period begins
Monday...with strong southerly surface flow pinched between high
pressure over Midwest and low over northern High Plains.

Arctic boundary moves through Monday night providing just as strong
winds in its wake...for Tuesday. Precipitation should be limited to snow
showers or flurries. The influence of yet another mighty high will
be felt Wednesday into Thursday. Dry and cold...less in the way of
wind...with sub 500 thicknesses and -20 to -30 850 mb temperatures
providing well below average surface readings once again.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 636 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015

VFR with no ceilings anticipated through the period.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...

short term...voelker
long term...wjb/voelker

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