Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

No changes needed. Cumulus in the northern forecast area breaking up and
will dissipate in the next 1-3 hours. Winds will diminish quickly
around sunset. With light winds overnight and clear sky current
lows looking good with around 30 far north to upper 30s in far


Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The main challenge will be temperatures and very light precipitation Sunday
night into Monday. Models are in good agreement overall...with no
preference this afternoon.

For tonight...expect a dry and seasonable night with lows down
into the 30s. If decoupling occurs early...some areas could dip
into the upper 20s locally...but expect the coldest temperatures within a
few degrees of 32.

On Sunday...return flow quickly develop and temperatures will warm above
normal. Expect highs around 70 for most least into the
middle 60s for the cooler areas in the northeast. Southerly winds
will increase during the afternoon and it should be breezy and

On Sunday night...a cold front and fairly strong shortwave will
pass through the region. This will bring a low chance for a few
showers or even a rumble of thunder. Deep layered moisture will be
lacking though with precipitable waters rising to just over 0.70. There will be
showalters approaching some convection is possible. We
will continue with the low chance for showers and not mention any
thunder at this time with coverage very low...but something to keep in
mind as showers move from west to east by 12z Monday.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

On Monday...expect a breezy to windy day with temperatures falling below
normal. Highs may not reach 50 in the far north and warmer south.
There could also be some wraparound showers in the north...even
mixing with a flake or 2.

For Tuesday...return flow will begin in the west late in the
day...and temperatures will begin to warm from cool readings on Monday.
It will remain dry with plenty of sunshine expected.

The Tuesday night through Saturday period is looking pretty active
overall. The 500mb ridge pushes off to the east Tuesday night with the
next wave moving in behind it. Models form kind of a hybrid surface low
over southeastern Montana and slowly track it eastward through about Friday.
Not a very fast mover with the blocking ridge to the east. Details
still need to be ironed out but all models seem to show something
similar. Details would be thunder possibilities especially on Wednesday
afternoon/evening and a mix with or change to snow in some areas as
colder air gets drawn into the system Thursday night into Friday morning.
After starting out Wednesday/Thursday near normal temperatures take a downward swing
to below normal for Fri/Sat.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Good flying weather next 24 hours. West winds will diminish
quickly at sunset leaving a light west to southwest wind
overnight. Winds will turn light southerly Sunday morning and
increase a bit Sun afternoon to the 10 to 20 knots range in eastern ND/rrv.
Skies clear overnight through 18z sun thetn some cirrus increase Sun
afternoon. Thicker clouds and risk of showers arrive after 00z Monday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...godon/dk