Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Forecast concerns temperatures...wind and precipitation chances. Models
overall in pretty good agreement and will use blend.

Challenge this evening will be watching shrinking band of light
snow and if it will make it across the border into Minnesota. Band
entering western valley with snow ending across the northwest forecast area. So far
accumulations look light from regional webcams...an inch or less.
High resolution models continue to diminish snow band through the
early evening and confine any residual -sn to the valley region.
Adjusted probability of precipitation with this thinking and next shift can adjust as
necessary. Modest warm advection continues overnight and with
clouds continuing good part of the night temperatures will not be
nearly as cold.

Surface pressure gradient tightens significantly tomorrow for
windy conditions. Currently looks marginal for Wind Advisory
criteria but later shifts will need to make determination. Warm
advection continues so with mixing temperatures should be able to
recover above average.

Quick moving cool front to sweep through the forecast area Saturday night.
Strong SW winds will switch to the northwest over the far northwest late evening
covering most of the forecast area by morning. All operational models fairly
robust with precipitation potential with amounts ranging from .10 to .5
inches. Expect mainly rain however could be a mix over northwest Minnesota
towards morning. Minimum temperatures should remain above freezing
overnight.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Strong northwest winds Sunday and looking a bit more favorable for
reaching advisory criteria so will need to watch this. Even with
initial shot of cold advection decrease in cloud cover and no snow
cover should allow temperatures to recover well above average.

Winds will diminish Sunday evening allowing temperatures to dip
close to freezing.

Another weak boundary may bring some light showers to the region
Monday although models not in very good agreement with
placement. Temperatures will remain mild.

Tuesday to Friday...good agreement at the beginning of the period
with model solutions as upper level ridge propagates from the
intermountain west into the northern plains Tuesday into Wednesday.
With the ridging 850mb temperatures climb into the low teens by Wednesday PM
combined with S to SW surface winds maximum temperatures will be in the 50s and
60s. Thereafter a bit more spread develops as the 12z GFS and Gem
maintains a more progressive open 500mb wave versus the 12z ec which
features a closed 500mb circulation and pieces out a couple vorticity
maxes Thursday and Friday. Thus high confidence of above normal
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with lower confidence in temperatures Thursday
and Friday. As for probability of precipitation and ptype...will maintain a low chance of
precipitation from Wednesday PM Onward with light rain potential during the day
changing over to light snow at night.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Snow band moving through the dvl terminal this afternoon bringing IFR
visibility. Will be short lived with MVFR conditions expected for most of
the afternoon. Elsewhere ceilings to remain VFR with south winds 10 to
15. South winds increasing tomorrow morning with gusts to 25kts
along and west of the valley.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...voelker
long term...jk/voelker
aviation...jk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations