Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 320 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Main forecast challenge will be snow event tonight into Sunday.
Models continue to show differences in snow potential however
trend has been slower and farther south with best snow potential.

Winds pretty much calm or below 5kts across the region however will
maintain wchill headlines for now. Otherwise surface high will
shift east today with return flow/warm advection most areas by
18z. Will also see cloud cover gradually shift east which will
also help with temperature recovery after cold start. As a result
temperatures should be able to recover into the single
digits...possible low teens over the far west.

Main concern will be snow tonight in warm advection zone. As
stated above models have been trending slower and farther south
with main snow band. High resolution models now bringing -sn into
the far west closer to 00z and into the valley 03-06 timeframe.
06z NAM clips the far SW with favored middle-upper level qg-fgen
support. Current snow estimates around 4 inches in the far SW-S so
will issue an advisory for this area. Within valley guidance has
lowered winds speeds slightly...around 20kts so not confident on
the degree of visibility restriction with wind and falling snow.
With uncertainty held off on advisory within valley but based on
timing day shift will have sufficient time to make final

-Sn will gradually taper off from west to east on Sunday. Another
inch or so is possible east of the valley. With clouds/warm
advection temperatures not nearly as cold. With westerly winds
over the far west late temperatures should range around 30.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 320 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Moderating temperatures into early next week as northwest middle level flow
relaxes. A weak wave drops southeast through the flow Monday night
possibly clipping the far SW with some light snow but at this
point accumulations look minimal.

Tuesday-Friday...temperatures will cool down on Tuesday...although the surface
high passes to the north and cool down will be short-lived
with return flow setting up by Wednesday. 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep light snow
along middle-level baroclinic zone primarily west of the area Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Temperatures will warm back above average by late the
upper flow becomes more zonal. The next weather system will arrive
late in the shortwave energy crosses The Rockies into the
plains. Low confidence currently as to the evolution of surface/upper
air features during this time.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1122 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Expect mainly clear skies and light winds for the rest of the
night. Clouds will increase through the day Sat and will slowly
lower as well. Expect south-southeast winds to pick up through the morning and
become rather gusty by afternoon/evening. The snow should move
into the kdvl area by middle afternoon and the kgfk/kfar areas by
early evening. As the snow moves in visibilities should begin to


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Sunday for ndz038-049-052-053.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for ndz006>008-015-016-

Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Sunday for mnz029-040.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for mnz001-002-004>009-



Short term...voelker
long term...makowski/voelker

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations