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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

issued at 956 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Low amplitude upper level ridge was over southern man. Water vapor
loop indicated a short wave embedded in the flow over ND and South Dakota.
Precipitable water rises overnight from the northwest. Precipitation should
stay south and west of the area. Took out early evening probability of precipitation. Will
go a degree or two higher for tonights low and mainly affect western

Update issued at 702 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Few showers over southern man may move across the international
border early this evening. Precipitation should dissipate with loss of
insolation. Added low probability of precipitation over a couple counties in the northern
valley. Tweaked winds a bit lower for tonight. Otherwise no changes.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

The main challenge will be convective chances Saturday into early
next week. The models are in good agreement...with the NAM
initial zing well so will use.

For tonight...expect a dry night with any isolated convection
getting close to the far SW will need to monitor. Temperatures
should fall to around normal for the entire region.

On elongated shortwave will move from northwest to
southeast through the day. There will also be a weak cool front
that will move from north to south through the day. There will
MUCAPE around 15000 j/kg and some shear around expect
scattered showers and storms. The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned a see text a
5% chance for some severe hail/ something to keep in mind
tomorrow. Temperatures should warm ahead of the front and be into the middle
80s south and around 80 north.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

For Sunday...expect a mainly dry day with temperatures about 5 degrees
cooler than Saturday. There could be an isolated shower or storm
in the southeast...but not expecting too much coverage.

On Monday...the latest models indicate convection may hold off
until Monday night. Given some model uncertainty...will continue
with some low probability of precipitation mainly in the west and south. Temperatures should be
near normal for early August...around 80 south and middle/upper 70s
far north.

Monday night into Friday...model continuity is not the best however
there continues to be a signal for more of a chance for thunder with
continued northwest flow aloft. Instability axis sets up across the central
Dakotas Monday night into Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) keeps the precipitation to the
west whereas the GFS brings it into the SW forecast area. That trend continues
for much of the next week with the European model (ecmwf) overall very dry and GFS
wetter. The 12z Gem also shows precipitation tracking across the area Monday
night Tuesday. Temperatures will depend on clouds early in the period but
expecting slightly below normal for next week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 702 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

VFR conditions expected for tonight and Sat. Light north winds most
places now should become more south/southwest on Sat. Mostly clear
tonight and some cumulus development around 6 to 7 thousand feet
expected on Sat.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...jk/dk

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