Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 356 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Upper level trough over eastern Montana will move across the forecast
area this afternoon and tonight. Open trough will close off today,
slowly drift east of ls, and expand to cover much of the northeast
part of the US by the end of the period. Upper level jet will
develop on east side of the trough. Another jet will dive south on
the west side of the trough on Monday. The jet on the west side of the
trough will remain over the western zones or farther west through
the period.

Highest precipitable water in the southeast zones now and will shift
east today. Most of the frontogenesis with the system is expected
with the cold front over central ND. Low level jet was over central
and southern Minnesota and is forecast to shift east/northeast today.
Precipitation currently over Minnesota should also shift north and east today.
Upper level divergence expected mainly over the northern Red River
valley in right entrance region of upper jet.

Middle level dry air over South Dakota will move northeast today and restrict
amount of rain expected with this system. With low level jet
shifting east/northeast and frontal boundary farther west,
ingredients not coming together for significant precipitation. Will trim
back quantitative precipitation forecast.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 356 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015

Wednesday to Saturday night...a quiet period weatherwise with northwest
flow aloft and cool Canadian surface high pressure. Some uncertainty
towards the end of the week with how quickly 500mb ridging tries to
build into the northern plains and with it there is potential for
warm air advection precipitation. Thus have some light probability of precipitation in for
Saturday. High temperatures in the forties will moderate to low
fifties by weeks end.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Rain has started to move into the southern forecast area...and
should impact the kfar area around 06 or 07z. The rain will
continue to spread north and eastward throughout the early morning
hours. For now will keep visible over 6sm but will include some ceilings
around 1500-2500 feet for a while. Other sites will stay
VFR...depending on amounts of saturation. Showers will move into
kdvl around 06 to 07z and winds will shift to the northwest as a
cold front moves in and merges with the main system coming in from
the south. All sites should see winds coming around to the
northwest by tomorrow morning...with some gusts above 25 kts
possible. Sustained rain will end by late morning to early
afternoon but some lingering rain showers will continue to be
possible in some areas.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...hoppes
long term...jk
aviation...Jr

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations