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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Update...
issued at 949 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Cool front continue to sag south across the forecast area this morning. In
its wake north to northeast winds today with a broken stratus deck to
impact the northern valley and dvl bsn. As a result adjusted temperatures
to the current curve and upped cloud cover across the
aforementioned areas. Some uncertainty as so how far south clouds
will advect and how much of an impact on temperatures in the Highway 2
corridor where clouds are expected to stall. Will monitor and
adjust as needed for the early afternoon update.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

The main challenge will be convective chances Thursday night into
Sat...and temperatures. Models are in good overall agreement...with no
preference this morning.

For today...a band of clouds and a back door cold front will move
from northeast to SW through the region. Temperatures will be cooler than
yesterday...with clouds near the front prognosticated to slowly thin
through the day. If clouds hold together longer than
prognosticated...then temperatures could even be cooler in the north. It will be
dry with perhaps a shower near Lake of The Woods County this morning.

For tonight...return flow will develop and temperatures should fall
initially...then steady off later tonight.

On Thursday...southerly winds will increase as moisture streams back
into the region. It will become windy along and west of the
valley...with 30kt to mix and a tightening pressure gradient.
Temperatures should also warm above normal. A strong cap will build into
the region...and will continue with a dry forecast. Can/T rule out
some late afternoon convection in the far north/west...and
something that we will continue to monitor.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

For Thursday night...a band of elevated convection should develop over
the west during the evening and move east overnight. A strong low level jet
around 50kt and precipitable waters around 1.5 inches...and MLCAPE around 500
j/kg with ample deep layered shear could lead to a few strong to
locally severe storms as well. The cap will be strong initially
though...and this could be a limiting factor to overall coverage
of storms. Middle level temperatures will cool overnight though...so
something we will monitor. Storm Prediction Center has a see text for the day 2 just
brushing our northwest forecast area for Thursday evening.

On Friday...expect the main area of convection to move into the
east/southeast by afternoon. It should be a warm day with westerly
flow and 850mb temperatures from +13c north to around +20c in the south.

For Friday night...another shortwave and cool front should cause
development of more showers and storms. There will be some
elevated instability to work with...with the best chance for
storms in the southeast and east closer to deeper moisture.

For Saturday through Tuesday...will start off with northwest flow
aloft and some lingering short wave energy. This will keep a chance
of showers mainly across the northeast forecast area Saturday into Sunday. Flow
amplifies a bit more into Monday as a western ridge builds. This
will result in dry weather for Mon/Tue. Main question may be the
degree of warming as the ridge approaches. Models show cooler 850mb
temperatures sun/Monday with a bit more recovery Tuesday as return flow gets
going.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 620 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

The main challenge will be the potential for MVFR ceilings with a cold
front dropping south. All mesoscale models dissipate this cloud
band...and winds will shift to the northeast. The evolution of
cloud trends today will need to be monitored...with the highest
chance for MVFR ceilings in the north.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...jk
short term...dk
long term...godon/dk
aviation...dk

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