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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

issued at 632 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Forecast on target so no update needed at this time.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 359 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Main challenge this morning will be temperatures. Surface analysis
shows low pressure moving fairly rapidly southeast from South Dakota...with precipitation
ending and winds decreasing. Temperatures near the Canadian border
look to dip below zero in cold advection but cloud cover remains
over the area and looks to keep values from dropping farther.
Short term models in agreement to hold cloud cover early before
becoming partly cloudy later in the day. Winds gradually
decreasing through the morning hours and...combined with
ending snowfall...has allowed visibilities to rise. Thus...have
canceled the Winter Weather Advisory.

Tonight into Thursday...Canadian high pressure again slides over
the forecast area. With clearing skies...cooler air and fresh
snow...expect overnight lows across most of the area to approach
10 below zero...bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so
far. However...for Thanksgiving...looking for high pressure to
slide southeast. Return flow behind the ridge will allow temperatures to
rebound ahead of the next system forecast to cross the region
Thursday night and Friday.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 359 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Thursday night through Friday night...another system is forecast
to cross the area...with models in good agreement on placement of
surface features. Return flow ahead of the system will allow high
temperatures to rebound back into the 20s. For this system...the
baroclinic zone is expected to set up a little farther
north...bringing most of the new snow across northern portions of the
region...with 2 to 4 inch amounts anticipated at this time. Will monitor
progression of the system and refine the forecast as needed.

For Sat through Tuesday...there will be the chance for some light
snow Sat ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures will cool well below
normal by Sunday...with highs in the single digits. Monday morning
lows could be well below zero...with a 1040mb high overhead and
fresh snow for most of the region. Temperatures will moderate by next Tuesday
as 850mb temperatures climb above 0c. There could be stronger southerly
winds later Monday into Tuesday as temperatures warm...something to keep in
mind for blowing/drifting snow threat perhaps.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 632 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions spreading over the area from north to south. Bji
and far remain MVFR to IFR for now...but surface high pressure and
subsidence sliding southeast out of Canada will help raise ceilings to VFR
conditions between 15-18z. Winds will be northerly from 10-15 miles per hour
across the area today.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Hopkins
long term...Hopkins/dk

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