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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
309 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

A weak short wave continues to make its way across the region
today...producing mainly high clouds. These high clouds and smoke
from western wildfires have limited highs a bit today. Low clouds
have lingered in the north/northeast along the Canadian border
today. Models have low level winds increasing have
reason to believe low clouds will move out of the area this
evening. Still...high clouds and smoke will exist across the area
this evening. The clouds are expected to move out of the area by
midnight...but am still expecting some smoke aloft into at least
early tomorrow. Air quality forecast leans toward some surface smoke
being possible yet today and tonight. Visibilities have been
limited in central and western ND today...and have started
becoming limited in parts the forecast area...including Cando.
Satellite still indicating plenty of smoke aloft moving through
the region. This smoke should be on the decrease tomorrow...and
the influence on incoming solar radiation is still hard to say.
Have gone with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s in most areas
based on some limited sun.

Lows Sunday night will be on the warm side...nearing 70 degrees
ahead of cold front expected on Monday. There could be
some showers/thunderstorms on Monday associated with this
system...but models have trended toward less of a chance as of
late. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday...back down to the upper 70s
to middle 80s. The area will sit under high pressure on
Tuesday...with highs in the 80s.

Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Temperatures will remain above normal as an upper ridge remain in place
or strengthens over the upper Mississippi Valley and a trough
deepens over the Pacific northwest into the northern rockies. With
southwest flow aloft...a few weak short waves will move through
and there is a low risk of a shower or thunderstorm each period.
Better chance comes later Friday into Saturday as frontal system
moves closer into the area. As maybe the case front may be slower
than prognosticated this far out but will go with idea of higher probability of precipitation
later Friday-Sat.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Not expecting a repeat of the low clouds and fog over the area again
Sunday morning as boundary layer is better mixed with south winds in
the 8 to 20 kts range around 1-2k above ground level. So will keep scattered-broken cirrus
tonight with a bit less cloud cover Sunday. Smoke/hazy sky today
will be a bit less Sunday with increased mixing.


Fire weather...
issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Main concern for fire weather will be Sunday afternoon west of
the Red River valley. In general...will see drier air push into
the forecast area from the southwest during the day Sunday.
Forecast minimum relative humidities are expected to bottom out
around 27 to 32 percent at this time...but may go lower depending
on how dry the air is as it moves across the area...and whether
forecast maximum temperatures are reached. Otherwise...transport
winds at this time look to be from 20 to 30 miles per hour...and
the Haines index will be in the 5 to 6 range. Despite current fire
danger ratings for eastern North Dakota being low to moderate...the
degree of dry air...winds and forecast high temperatures Sunday
afternoon may cause near critical fire weather conditions. The
situation will be monitored for any significant changes.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...knutsvig
long term...Riddle
fire weather...Hopkins

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