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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Update...
issued at 950 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Will allow advisory to expire at 10am with temperatures quickly
rising. Breezy south winds and maximum temperatures in the teens or low 20s
today...current forecast on track.

&&

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 345 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Forecast challenges concern temperatures and snow chances this
weekend. Model thermal fields for the most part in good agreement
through the period however differences continue with precipitation output
with weak systems this weekend and held pretty close to
persistence.

Temperatures leveling off/rising from the Valley West as return
flow/warm advection initiates. Mixing to increase during the day
along with solar and continued warm advection. After cold start
should see modest recovery with temperatures rising into the teens
to low 20s.

Weak surface trough crosses forecast area tonight. GFS has trended drier
closer to ECMWF/Gem/NAM. GFS a little stronger with cold advection
in wake of trough passage when compared with NAM/European model (ecmwf) and will
follow with the later which have been more consistent.

Column continues to moderate on Friday. Only catch for mild
temperatures may be degree of cloud cover ahead of next short
wave which will move in during the afternoon. Even so should see
maximum temperatures a few degrees either side of 32f.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 345 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Maintained inherited probability of precipitation late Wednesday afternoon into the
overnight as models showing differing solutions. With clouds and
warmer column minimum temperatures will be much milder.

Temperatures on Saturday will also hinge on the degree of cloud
cover. With milder start should see temperatures at or maybe a
little above average.

Next wave Saturday night looks fairly similar to the Friday night
system and maintain similar probability of precipitation.

Long wave pattern Delaware amplifies this period. Long wave trough over
eastern North America shifts more into eastern Canada. Long wave
ridge over the West Coast flattens and shifts into the northern
rockies. The European model (ecmwf) is slightly faster than the GFS at the beginning
of the period and becomes faster though the period. The GFS and European model (ecmwf)
have been trending farther south and slightly faster over the
previous couple runs. Upper level jet south of the area will
reestablish itself north of the area sun and remains north of the
area through Thursday.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or two for sun...increased a
degree for Monday and increased one to three degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday
compared to yesterdays run.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1228 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

VFR ceilings and visibility to prevail right through Friday with a fresh
southerly wind Ard 15ktsg25 this afternoon. Winds will ease Ard
sunset before shifting to west Friday morning.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...tg
short term...voelker
long term...hoppes/voelker
aviation...wjb

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