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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
917 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

issued at 915 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

No major adjustments this morning. We have gotten one report of
some freezing drizzle near Fargo that has ended...and no other
reports so far. Can/T rule out some drizzle/freezing drizzle in
the south through middle afternoon where temperatures are near freezing.
Overall will be dry and cloudy with temperatures falling and
north winds increasing. Winds will gust to around 30-35kt at times
in the valley this afternoon with the classic North Valley wind
and about 30kt to mix with strong surface cold advection and a
pressure rise maximum. Winds may approach advisory levels for a few
hours but likely won't need any headlines...just a windy day.


Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 342 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Main concern will be precipitation potential and p-type for
today. Models are in decent agreement and will use a blend for
this forecast. This led to very little change.

Northern stream system propagating across southern Canada will
send a cold front through the region. Interaction between this
system and the southern stream system will be very minimal...and
with little upper level support measurable quantitative precipitation forecast unlikely. There has
been a report or two of -sn and -fzdz upstream in Canada...and
the most likely scenario is for patchy flurries/fzdz with no
impacts. Winds will be gusty...but should remain below advisory

Thanksgiving day will be cold compared to the previous few days as
surface high pressure propagates into the region. Sky cover will be
the biggest challenge...especially how quickly the low clouds are
able to clear. This will have an affect on temperatures.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 342 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Thursday night-Friday night...models all indicate surface ridging
leading to relatively quiet weather. Temperatures very close to
normal values.

Saturday-Tuesday...confidence during this time is low with
blocked (high over low) split upper flow pattern persisting. It
does look like the start of the period will be dry under high
pressure. As the upper low moves into the plains...confidence
decreases. Models have not been consistent with the placement of
the upper low...the placement and intensity of any embedded
shortwave troughs within the broader circulation...and therefore
the moisture availability/forcing. These patterns typically have
low predictability...though...and thus kept model blend of low
probability of precipitation during the sun/Monday time for now. Temperatures should remain near or
above average.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 635 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Challenge will be cigs/vsby...and how low. Most guidance
indicates remaining MVFR (1000-1500 feet) through the period.
However...there are some IFR conditions upstream. Stuck with the
most likely scenario in the forecast...with the understanding that
IFR conditions are possible but would likely be brief.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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