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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

issued at 1142 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Timing of precipitation still looks good with only very minor adjustments
made. Area of showers approaching dvl region to Bismarck.
Lightning part is weakening as Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis shows mu convective available potential energy in
eastern ND below 500 j/kg. Thus idea of weakening of convection as it
moves east overnight appears good. Probability not dissipate completely
so idea of chance probability of precipitation look reasonable.

Update issued at 1000 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

No changes made. Short term has general idea of precipitation reaching
the Red River toward 12z which the grids have now. Temperatures OK.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 345 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Fair skies and middle afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s will
steadily give way to a thin smoke/haze this a more
westerly low level wind flow tracks smoke that has been pooling in
the western and central Dakotas back over the Red River basin.

Late this evening and overnight...a cool front will push through
the area from southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba...providng a
focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak convergence
ahead ofthe front should help pool low level moisture a bit...
though a deep low level jet transport is not expected. The 18z
nam12 guidance keep most surface based forcing along and west of a
Minot-Bismarck line through 03z... with convection moving into
eastern ND after 06z...and across the Red River around the 12z
timeframe. A weak 500 mb shortwave is indicated as the system drags
across the area early on Wednesday...with deep layer shear
approaching 35 kts and cape values exceeding 1000 j/kg. Morning
convection should press across northen Minnesota during the forenoon
..with isolated shower still possible in the postfrontal
afternoon period.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 345 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Thursday should be generally fair and seasonably mild...with
winds quite variable early in the day and then increasing from
the south southwest through the afternoon. The middle level flow
pattern /h7 to 500 mb/ should become west to southwest as the 500 mb trough
digs into the soouthern California coast. Meanwhile...low level
flow /sfc to 800 mb/ should renain southerly...with Canadian wildfire
smoke staying mainly north of the canam border.

Friday night through Monday...models in general agreement on
evolution of upper level pattern in the extended period. The start
of the period has a split flow regime with a high amplitude upper
ridge over the intermountain west and High Plains. Expect a few
short waves to propagate through the flow and...combined with heating
and abundant low level moisture...will see chances increase for
scattered showers or storms each day. Southerly winds at the
surface...along with the strength of the upper level ridge...will keep
temperatures on the warmer side...with highs mainly in the middle to upper


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1142 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Not much change from 00z tafs as kept in thunderstorms in the vicinity for dvl 08/06-11z
period and then in the Red River roughly 08/12-17z... did include thunderstorms in the vicinity for
a few popup T-storms Wednesday late afternoon with cool pool aloft over head
in the Red River. Winds south-southwest turning gradually northwest in
eastern ND Wednesday. Mostly under 10 kts.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gust
long term...gust/Hopkins

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