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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 305 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

The main forecast challenge will be the rain moving in late
tonight and holding over the area through Thursday night. As for this
afternoon...still remaining mostly sunny with temperatures in the 70s.
Actually seeing a 40f dew point value now at Elbow the
moisture is slowly expanding northward. Will see the clouds
expanding south to north tonight as well with the slowly rising
dew points. Should be a little warmer across the south for these
reasons. The gusty S-southeast winds should taper off a bit overnight so
the dangerous fire conditions should abate by early evening. The
next wave over the southwest United States will continue to lift
up toward the area tonight with steady south winds. How fast any
precipitation actually makes it into the forecast area will be the main question.
Models really do not show a lot of forcing tonight and therefore
will probably not see much precipitation actually reaching the ground until
closer to Wednesday morning. Will leave low precipitation chances south of
Interstate 94 to blend with adjacent offices. See a much better
push of 850mb winds on Wednesday helping to continue the moisture surge.
Not a lot of instability through the day but will leave the
mention of isolated thunder. Surface low tracks up toward kabr by 12z
Thursday with models indicating somewhat of a dry slot to the SW. Still
some weak instability over the area so will keep the showers with
isolated thunder wording.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Surface boundary will slowly push from west to east on Thursday as well
with gusty northwest winds picking up behind it. Models disagree
on how fast the precipitation will end with the 12z NAM lingering heavier
amounts of precipitation the longest. Therefore its storm total precipitation is
much heavier than the other models. Other solutions show half inch
to one inch amounts with a little more or less in some areas.
After the precipitation ends Thursday night it looks noticeably cooler for Friday.

For Friday night through Tuesday...main feature of interest will be
next upper low models forecast to lift into the forecast area later Sunday
into early next week. Differences of course however looks like
another potential for respectable rainfall across at least a
portion of the forecast area dependent on surface low track. Dry
and relatively cool conditions initially in period with rain
chances increasing later Sunday as associated surface low lifts
northeast. With differing solutions chance probability of precipitation seem reasonable at
this point. Minimal T potential through the period. Temperatures
through the period will range below average.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1233 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

VFR ceilings expected until after 12z from S-north as band of rain moves in.
Only mentioned -ra at far as remainder sites will not see precipitation until
at the end of the forecast period or later. Gusty winds this
afternoon will simmer down towards sunset.


Fire weather...
issued at 305 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Red flag conditions remain in most of eastern North Dakota into
parts of northwestern Minnesota with observations showing relative
humidity values 10 to 20 percent range and south-southeast wind
gusts 20 to 30 miles per hour. Will see a rapid rise in dew point values and
accompanied relative humidity values after 00z as moisture begins to
move northward. The next couple of days will feature some much
needed precipitation.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ndz006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. flag warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for mnz001>005-007-



Short term...godon
long term...godon/voelker
fire weather...Riddle

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