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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
707 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Update...
issued at 704 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

No changes to this update.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 301 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Cumulus field formed this afternoon across portions of the
northeastern and eastern forecast area while a steady stream of middle level
clouds have progressed through the western forecast area. Think the cumulus
will fade away through the evening but there will be a steady
amount of middle level clouds moving in keeping at least the west
partly cloudy. Looks like thunderstorms should fire out over the western
part of ND tonight and slowly trend eastward toward morning. Will
insert some low thunderstorm chances for late night in case any of this
activity reaches our far west. Pretty decent low level jet tonight
with steady warm advection should help keep these thunderstorms going out
west through the night. Question then is how much of this activity to
the west affects the forecast area on Thursday. At this point since the low level
jet holds together somewhat and there is a decent short wave will
maintain thunderstorm chances pretty much as they were. Do not have a lot
of confidence in Thursday night chances. Models seem to agree best on
keeping something lingering in the northeast but there is also a
weak surface boundary that moves into eastern ND. Pretty hard to
eliminate precipitation chances for any areas.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 301 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Above mentioned surface boundary continues to drift into northwest Minnesota
on Friday. Higher dew point values pool along and ahead of this
boundary which will bring more thunderstorms to these areas. Storm Prediction Center day3
outlook has a see text for most of our forecast area. These storms should
move out Friday night. An upper low will drop into the northern forecast area
on Saturday. Combination of cold temperatures aloft and daytime heating
should make for more showers/thunderstorms by afternoon...mainly along and
north of Interstate 94 in ND/Highway 10 in Minnesota.

Sat night through Wednesday...European model (ecmwf) and GFS in famous agreement
for the extended forecast timeframe with closed low north of
region propagating to the east during Sunday taking any precipitation out
of the area. High pressure will follow for Monday and Tuesday with
sunny warm and dry conditions prevailing. Long wave range will
stay in place from Montana through Desert Southwest...with north
to northwest flow prevailing over the northern plains. Hint of a
short wave moving through this flow by day 7...maybe too fast but
maintained allblend low probability of precipitation as the period ends. Expect little day
to day variation in temperatures with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s
and lows in the mid-50s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 704 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

VFR conditions with light winds tonight turning southeast Thursday
morning...and increasing to between 10-15kt by afternoon.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...dk
short term...godon
long term...wjb/godon
aviation...dk

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