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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Main forecast challenge will be upcoming snow event across the
southern forecast area later Monday into Tuesday. Confidence still on the low
side as models continue to differ on surface low track affecting
snow amounts and how far north snow shield will get. There has
been a model trend of delaying arrival of snow. Models also seem
to be trending a bit south this run with exception of the European model (ecmwf)
which is farthest north and this run an outlier. With plenty of
uncertainty will lean heavily towards consistency and National

Upper low will begin to shift into the central/northern rockies
overnight. An impulse rotating around the low later tonight should
spread band of middle/upper level clouds into the south half half of
the forecast area. Farther north under sky clear and light winds areas of fog are
possible and added to forecast. Warmest temperatures overnight
will be across the south under cloud cover.

Models have backed off on quantitative precipitation forecast Sunday with lobe rotating around
upper low so maintained dry forecast. Will actually see some
cooler spreading from S-north during the day and more clouds may limit
temperatures a couple degrees cooler than today but still close to

Continued increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures mainly in
the teens Sunday night.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Models are in agreement in slowing up arrival of snow to southern
parts of the region with favored potential now more towards late
afternoon/evening. Did maintain some low probability of precipitation in the afternoon but
confidence low. Temperatures are still expected to range a few
degrees either side of freezing.

Best snow potential will be overnight Monday. Highest probability of precipitation still
expected along the ND/South Dakota Minnesota border regions with moderate
accumulations possible. With model uncertainty no headlines
planned at this point.

Snow should shift into the southeast forecast area Tuesday diminishing from west to east
during the afternoon.

Expect diminishing snow showers...cloudiness and northwest winds on
Tuesday a low pressure system moves away from the area
and into the western Great Lakes.

European model (ecmwf) and GFS guidance appears fairly consistent on a move towards
more dominant 500 mb ridging over the northern plains through the middle to
late week period. Wednesday into Thursday we can expect a seasonably
mild and dry northwest to westerly flow pattern aloft...with deep
southwesterly flow aloft developing over the area on Friday as
troffing digs deeply into the intermountain west. Late Friday into
Saturday could be our next chance for scattered light /mixed/
precipitation as a cutoff low reforms over The Four Corners area and
the 500 mb trough axis passes over the northern plains. Temperatures
throughout the middle to late week period should remain well above
seasonal normals.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Expect fair skies and light southwesterly flow throughout the day...
with winds becoming light and variable during the overnight. On
Monday... expect VFR conditions throughout the day with light winds
turning from the southeast in the afternoon.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...voelker
long term...gust/voelker

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