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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
921 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Update...
issued at 920 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

No sig update needed this forenoon. Patchy fog from earlier this
morning has dissipated and temperatures are currently warming along
forecast heating curve. Thin high cloud cover southeast of an
inl-bji-bwp-abr line will keep temperatures a bit lower there.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 304 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Main forecast challenge will be precipitation chances developing again
this afternoon. As of 3 am...the least cloud cover existed over
the Red River valley with some bands of middle and high clouds east
and west. Continued to see some patchy fog from kbji to kfse to
kfar so will keep that mentioned through the morning hours. Otherwise
expect to see quite a bit of Morning Sun with light winds. High
temperatures today should once again be a little warmer across the north
where the warmer 925mb temperatures have been. Hard to pick out a better
focus area for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with the weak surface wind
field. However there were a good number of showers/thunderstorms Monday
afternoon into evening. Think this will be the case again with
most of the high resolution models showing something developing
again. Seems to be a little better consensus from Valley City up
through the northern valley and possibly over toward kdvl. Expect
this activity to wane with loss of daytime heating. Small break
again until Wednesday afternoon. This time a weak cold frontal boundary
will slip down into the northern forecast area and be a slightly better focus
area for additional showers/tstms...also keeping it a little
cooler there.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 304 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Precipitation chances should pick by Wednesday night and Thursday as a middle level wave
lifts into the forecast area. Kept the best precipitation chances for the short term
with this period and may have to increase chances even more with
later forecasts. Main other thing of note is a cold front Thursday
night which will result in cooler Friday morning lows.

For Friday through Monday...Friday will see much cooler air invade the
area with north winds as high pressure drops south. High pressure
and dry air over the area Saturday into Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Lows Saturday morning the coldest with middle 30s to
lower 40s. Early next week will see warmer temperatures return along with
a small risk of showers.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 636 am CDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Winds at all the taf sites except kdvl should be pretty light
today. At kdvl they should keep a northwest component. Expect some
showers with isolated thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the
day...then dissipate in the evening. Should be pretty hit and
miss so will only go with vcsh at the taf locations.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...gust
short term...godon
long term...godon/Riddle
aviation...godon

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