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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1209 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

issued at 1209 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Current forecast looks on track. Only minor changes made with this

Update issued at 930 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Freshened up near term forecast elements based on latest
observations and model data. Looks like thunderstorm threat has
diminished considerably...with many hail reports left in the wake
of this mornings storms. Largest hail was 2.5 inches early this
morning in Otter Tail and Becker counties. Rest of the day will
only have fair weather cumulus developing behind upper wave...
with cooler highs than yesterday.

Update issued at 713 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Western edge of storms rapidly intensified around 530-6 am as it
moved into a very favorable shear environment. 0-6 km bulk shear
of 50 kts noted on Storm Prediction Center mesoscale Page Fargo-dtl-Wadena area. Udpated to
add probability of precipitation into Wadena and Otter Tail counties for 2-3 hours and
removed probability of precipitation from gfk-ckn-bde areas.


Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 358 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Upper level short wave moving into central mantioba and northwest Ontario
early this morning. A cold front out ahead of it moving into southeast ND
and central Minnesota. Behind the front is an area of 50 knots bulk shear and
enough instability to produce a axis of thunderstorms. Overall
activity and intensity less than earlier Saturday evening...but a
little upward tick in intensity has occured since 230 am from far
NE ND into northwest Minnesota. This area will continue to move southeast through
the early morning...and will continue with isolated/scattered thunderstorm idea into
northwest Minnesota through middle morning as previous forecast. Otherwise north winds today
picking up 10 to 20 knots range and cooler weather with highs mostly
70s. High pressure slides into central ND tonight and lingers there
Monday. Meanwhile as upper low in western Hudson Bay shifts south-
southeast into northwest Ontario some wraparound stratocu to brush far NE
forecast area Monday. Cooler airmass in place especially in Lake of The Woods
region where highs may not get out of the 60s.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 358 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Clouds may linger in far NE forecast area into Monday night or Tuesday
but otherwise high pressure in control with center still over
central ND.

For Wednesday through Saturday...
long wave trough intensifies a bit over the Pacific northwest
while the upper level trough over the Great Lakes/southeast Canada
weakens through the period. Long wave ridge builds from the High
Plains into central Canada by the end of the period.

The European model (ecmwf) was faster than the GFS through much of the period but the
GFS becomes faster by the end of the period. The GFS was trending
faster while the European model (ecmwf) was trending slower over the last couple
runs. Will blend the two models.

High temperatures decreased a degree or two for Wednesday and about a degree for
Thursday. Temperatures were generally increased a degree or two for Friday and Sat.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1209 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Afternoon gusty winds and scattered VFR cumulus will diminish this
evening near sunset. Anticipate gusty winds and cumulus to again
develop late Monday morning.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle
long term...jh/Riddle

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