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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Update...
issued at 648 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Some decent radar returns have developed over central ND along the
700mb frontogenesis band...with a little bit of light rain
reaching the ground at bis. The frontogenesis will begin to move
into our southern counties by 15z...but the rap and hrrr have
little to no quantitative precipitation forecast. Will continue to keep some minimal probability of precipitation in the
south and east this morning but think that it should be fairly
quiet.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 346 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Winds today and temperatures throughout the period will be the
main forecast issues for the short term.

A shortwave trough moving across southern Manitoba today and into
Ontario will help push a weak cold front through the County Warning Area. Winds
have already shifted to the north across the Devils Lake basin and
northern Red River valley. Think that the boundary will be through
the southern and eastern County Warning Area by the 15 to 18z time frame. A few
lingering showers mainly over the southeastern counties will be
possible...but any amounts will be even lighter than yesterday.
Winds will be the main concern this afternoon. There will be a
fairly decent pressure gradient which should make it somewhat
breezy. Mixing up to around 800mb or so is likely...but winds at
the top of the mixed layer are only around 20 kts. Think that some
sustained winds in the teens with gusts above 20 miles per hour will be
possible...enough to cause some fire weather headaches. Temperatures
should be cooler than yesterday but still pretty mild...rising
into the 60s to low 70s.

Tonight...surface high pressure will build into the region...bringing
mostly clear skies and light winds. This should allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. Monday will also be very
quiet under near zonal flow as the surface high begins to move east.
Winds should be shifting to the south but will remain fairly light
and think that highs again will be in the 60s to low 70s.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 346 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Monday night through Tuesday night...the main event will be an
upper trough moving from the Desert Southwest through Colorado and
out into the Central Plains. Surface low pressure will begin to
develop to our west and bring some higher moisture levels as
southerly winds kick in. Temperatures should be rising again with more highs
in the 70s for Tuesday. Surface low pressure will be moving up into
western South Dakota Tuesday night...with a warm front pushing into ND
mainly after midnight. Continued with high probability of precipitation for Tuesday
night...and with showalters near zero kept mainly showers with
isolated thunder for now.

Wednesday through Saturday...the long term models continue to look
wet for the middle part of the work week...with the Gulf opening
up on Tuesday for decent moisture flux into the central and
northern plains. A SW upper flow pattern sets up on Tuesday and
precipitation begins to lift out of the Central Plains Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A surface low then moves into NE/South Dakota Wednesday into
Thursday...keeping precipitation across ND and northwest Minnesota. Models continue to have
slight differences in placement and timing of any dry slot which
may occur as the low lifts into northwest Minnesota and Ontario...however there
is a strong signal for precipitation across the County Warning Area in the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe. This could provide some relief to the dry fire weather conds
we have had over the last several weeks.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 648 am CDT sun may 3 2015

VFR conditions continue with only some middle and high clouds
throughout the period. Northwest winds will pick up to around 15
kts sustained with gusts above 20 kts. Winds will diminish by this
evening and stay under 10 kts through Sunday night.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 337 am PM CDT Sat may 2 2015

The long term models continue to look wet for the middle part of the
work week...with the Gulf opening up on Tuesday for decent moisture
flux into the central and northern plains. A SW upper flow pattern
sets up on Tuesday and precipitation begins to lift out of the
Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. A surface low then moves into
NE/South Dakota Wednesday into Thursday...keeping precipitation across ND and northwest Minnesota. Models
continue to have slight differences in placement and timing of any
dry slot which may occur as the low lifts into northwest Minnesota and
Ontario...however there is a strong signal for precipitation across
the County Warning Area in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This could provide some relief to
the dry fire weather conds we have had over the last several weeks.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...Jr
short term...Jr
long term...Jr/speicher
aviation...Jr
fire weather...speicher

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