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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

issued at 944 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Main change to the forecast is the mention of patchy fog possible
developing overnight as moist airmass remains in place across the
southern and eastern areas of the forecast area with clearing skies and light
winds...bringing the potential for some ground fog development.
Otherwise showers across the Lake of The Woods and Beltrami
counties have moved east.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Forecast challenge concerns low end precipitation chances and temperatures.
Models in fair agreement and will use blend for forecast.

Boundary just east of the valley. Spotty convection trying to
organize just north of the border along boundary ahead of weak middle
level impulse. Could see some southward development remainder of
the afternoon so low probability of precipitation seem justified. By evening front should
be east of forecast area or close to so kept the overnight dry. Thermal ridge
shifts over forecast area however with fairly low dewpoints and light mixing
temperatures should be able to dip a tad below average.

On Saturday upper low will track along international border. As it
does a respectable cold front will drop from northwest-southeast across the forecast area.
Cold pool enters the northern forecast area during the afternoon and will
keep best chance for precipitation this area. Airmass fairly stable so
confidence low on any T and trimmed back to mostly rain showers. Southern
forecast area should still be able to recover to average middle Summer values
with coolest temperatures across the far north. Fairly deep mixed
layer so expect breezy to windy conditions with strongest winds
over dvl basin.

Upper low drops southeast across NE Minnesota overnight. Will maintain some low
probability of precipitation across roughly NE half of forecast area as trailing surface boundary
follows upper low.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Sunday will be much cooler with scattered rain showers.

Upper low exits the region Sunday night with surface high
pressure building in with middle level northwest flow. Cooler column
will result in dry but below average temperatures.

High and dry best describes the middle and late week periods. GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are both locked onto a fairly high amplitude western noam 500 mb
ridge position through much of the coming week with no clear signs
of any significant shortwave activity making its way across the northern
plains. The European model (ecmwf) has a threat of a isolated shower late Wednesday
or early Thursday... but with the GFS coming in markedly dry during
that same period...both NCEP and consensus probability of precipitation would keep US dry.
Under such a scenario...maximum and min temperatures are trended very near long
term seasonal normals.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 648 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Bji still has a broken deck but has lifted to 3500ft with all other
taf sites scattered to sky clear. VFR now through the overnight with west winds
gusting tomorrow late morning to afternoon into the 20 to 30kt range.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...voelker
long term...gust/voelker

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