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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 323 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Convection tonight will be the main forecast issue for the period.

The main upper shortwave is still digging into western Montana but
there have been several lead shortwaves coming out as westerly
flow aloft has been picking up over the northern plains. There
have been some lingering showers and storms with the first lead
shortwave and along the frontal boundary still impacting our
northeastern County Warning Area. The cold front was currently from southeastern
ND to right near Fargo up into the Lake of The Woods region. The
southeastern County Warning Area ahead of the front is still showing temperatures in the
80s with 60s dew points...bringing some pretty unstable air of
2500 j/kg mixed layer cape. Effective bulk layer shear has
improved to 40-45kts...although the highest values are still on
the cool side of the front. There will be a short window as storms
redevelop along the cold front before it moves southeast out of
our area. The hrrr has storms not redeveloping until near 23z...by
which point the front is nearly out of the area. Think this is a
bit too fast...so will keep high probability of precipitation and the possibility of
severe continues until later this evening when the front pulls
away from the area.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger behind the cold front
for a while overnight...with western counties seeing mostly
showers as showalters become positive in the cool side of the
front. Most of the activity should push to the far southeastern
counties by early Monday morning. Think during the day Monday
there could be some showers redeveloping as a reinforcing
shortwave digs down on the backside of the main upper trough. Only
a few of the models have some precipitation developing in the west on the
backside of the main trough...but think there was enough of a
chance to include slight chance for showers. Highs on Monday will
be much cooler than today with strong cold air advection behind
the front. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s...but there
could be a return to smoke in the air as northwesterly flow aloft
returns.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 323 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday and Wednesday...Tuesday should be fairly quiet under west
to northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure. Temperatures will be a
bit warmer than Monday and should reach the 70s. Another weak
shortwave trough will begin to move into the northern plains on
Wednesday...with southerly winds returning. Currently the
shortwave and the surface trough look quite a bit weaker than sunday's
system...but will continue to keep some chance probability of precipitation going mainly
over the northwestern counties. Highs will be a bit below average
still for Wednesday and top out in the 70s.

Wednesday night through Sunday...after convection ends late
Wednesday into Thursday morning...Thursday then looks to be dry
and warmer as overall flow shifts from a more southerly direction.
Longer range model guidance indicates that upper level troffing
should increase off the California coast from Thursday into Friday
with a more convectively unstable southerwesterly 500 mb flow arching
into the central and northern plains from Friday into Saturday.
Low level southerly flow is also expected to increase from Friday
into Saturday...with commensurate increase in moisture and risk
for strong thunderstorms into Sunday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1251 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015

Expect widespread MVFR conditions in thunderstorms across the
northern Red River basin...along and north of Highway 200...through the
early afternoon. Conditions there will be improving to VFR
after middle afternoon from dvl into gfk...and through late
afternoon gfk into vwu. Areas soputh of Highway 200 will see
scattered MVFR conds in tunderstorms developing through the middle
afternoon and extending into early evening from far-bwp line into
central Minnesota lakes country. Late evening and overnight will
Post frontal drying and return to VFR conds.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Jr
long term...Jr/gust
aviation...gust

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