Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 am CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 356 am CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Northern stream forecast to amplify today. Upper level ridge off the
western coast of Canada will build and slowly shift east into
western North America by the end of the period. Upper level low east
of The Four Corners will also move east and be picked up by and
precede an amplifying trough now over Alberta. Peninsula upper level wave
closes off by Sun morning

Precipitable water will begin to rise today and rise to around an
inch in the southeast zones by 12z sun then decreases and shifts
east. Better than 100m height falls occurs east of Alberta trough
through 84 hours. Good low level moisture transport into southeast
zones tonight on a low level jet. Good low level frontogenesis also
over the southeast zones tonight. These feature shift east/northeast
on sun.

Instability showers expected Sun afternoon/evening as colder air
moves in aloft. More instability showers expected Monday afternoon.
Otherwise wrap around precipitation expected mainly over northern Minnesota Monday
and Monday night.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 356 am CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Tuesday to Friday night...models in good agreement northwest flow aloft for
the northern plains. Besides some lingering showers early Tuesday
for the Minnesota pines from departing cyclonic flow aloft there is a dry
forecast with 850mb temperatures ranging from negative 2c to 8c...yielding
maximum temperatures in the 40s...below middle April normals by 5 to 10 degrees.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1137 PM CDT Friday Apr 17 2015

Maintained VFR conditions through the period. Models a little slower
in bringing precipitation/lower ceilings into the forecast area with most of the event past
this forecast period.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hoppes
long term...jk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations