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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Update...
issued at 627 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

With a brief rain showers in Winnipeg backed probability of precipitation to the northwest a few hours
this am. Otherwise no changes made.

&&

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 355 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Forecast challenges concern mainly temperatures and middle week precipitation
chances with cold frontal passage. Models pretty close with thermal
profiles but differ on snow potential with middle week cold front passage. Models
have overdone quantitative precipitation forecast on nearly every of the recent waves in northwest flow
so for now will be conservative with snow potential.

Current radar returns associated with middle level clouds around 10k
feet so pulled probability of precipitation except for the far NE forecast area. Even there Canadian
radars not impressive so backed off on coverage there this
morning. Strong warm advection with westerly winds approaching
western valley. By 18z or so some back door cold advection takes
over. Westward extent of lower ceilings will also play a part on how
much we can recover with minimal snow cover. SW forecast area into southern
valley will have best potential for solar so have warmest readings
there.

High pressure builds into the forecast area overnight and cloud cover will
again have impact on temperatures so stayed close to inherited
values.

Good push of warm advection Tuesday with southerly winds so will
be another day of well above average temperatures.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 355 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Cold front looks to remain north of forecast area until Wednesday so another
mild night.

Cold frontal passage from north-S Wednesday. Models showing
differences on mainly Post frontal precipitation potential. Based on recent
trends of over forecasting precipitation with these waves will keep probability of precipitation on
low end until confidence increases.

Long wave ridge remains over western North America and long wave
trough over the eastern North America through the period. Long wave
ridge builds over the Bering straits and into Alaska by day 5 then
weakens. Cross polar flow develops thereafter.

The European model (ecmwf) and the GFS were in reasonable agreement at the beginning
of the period. The European model (ecmwf) becomes a faster solution and a more
amplified solution by 00z Monday. Models diverge significantly by the
end of the period. GFS keeps the same current pattern with short
wave ridges moving across the northern plains while the European model (ecmwf)
indicated more significant Arctic intrusions. Will prefer the
European model (ecmwf).

High temperatures were increased two to three degrees for Thursday and one or
two degrees for Friday. High temperatures were decreased three to six degrees
on Sat and one to three degrees on sun from yesterdays forecast
package.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 627 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

MVFR conditions should be confined to the far east lifting this
afternoon. Remainder of the forecast area should be VFR through the forecast
period.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...voelker
short term...voelker
long term...hoppes/voelker
aviation...voelker

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