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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Update...
issued at 1000 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Short wavelength upper level ridge over southern man/southern Saskatchewan
will move south across the area tonight. Surface high pressure
extended from the Iowa/NE border to the central Saskatchewan/Alberta border. High
pressure system will move to western Iowa by morning. Pressure
gradient will remain up overnight.

Wind chills were running from 15 to 28 below and continue to decrease
with falling temperatures. Wind chills expected to fall to 25 to 35 below by
morning. No change to current low temperature.

Update issued at 658 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Tweaked lows up in the south and along the Pembina Escarpment. Also
winds were tweaked up for tonight. Wind chills don't change much
with changes.

Wind Chill Advisory is in effect after 8 PM for most of the Red
River valley excluding the Woods in the east and the far southeast
zones.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 228 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

High pressure in eastern Montana this afternoon will track southeast
through South Dakota and into Iowa tonight. Skies clear tonight
but enough of a gradient on the north side of the high to continue
5-7 knots wind in eastern ND/Red River while eastern forecast area GOES
light/variable. Tonight will see low temperatures a bit warmer than last
night in most areas as the coldest 925 mb winds shift south of the
area. But enough cooling and wind to send wind chills overnight
into early Friday back into the -25f to -35f range in eastern ND/Red River
so another wc advisory will be issued. Coordinate with
abr/mpx/bis/dlh. No issuance in far eastern forecast area as
dlh/mpx/abr not issuing one due to light winds.

A bit warmer again on Friday with sunshine as warmer 850mb/925mb
air drops south. Should reach the teens for highs. Not as cold Friday
night.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 228 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Saturday will be a milder day as a weak surface trough drops
southeast into eastern ND Sat afternoon and then pushes east Sat evening.
Models indicate a surge in 850 mb moisture into northwest Minnesota ahead of
trough Sat middle afternoon-evening before drier air moves east. Enough
moisture to warrant a low pop for -sn in parts of northwest Minnesota...mainly
bde-bji-pkd areas. Cooling behind this trough for Sunday with some
sun and a favorable west wind expect to see high temperatures lower 20s
in most areas.

Sunday night through Wednesday...models in good agreement this run
and went with a blended solution for this package. Overall pattern
remains transitory. The center of high pressure is forecast to be
over Iowa with the ridge axis extending back northwest across ND into southern
Saskatchewan. With northwest flow aloft expect the ridge to continue moving southeast
rapidly...with return flow developing bringing breezy and warmer
conditions to the region by Monday night.

Another upper level wave is expected to move S out of Canada by
early Tuesday morning. An associated cold front with a strong cold air
push will cross the area...bringing chances for precipitation and dropping
temperatures back to well below normal through the end of the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 658 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

A clear sky was across the area and a clear sky is forecast for
tonight. Some cirrus will move in from Canada on Friday. Winds will
become more southwest/south late tonight and Friday. VFR conditions are
expected.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am CST Friday for ndz006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

Minnesota...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am CST Friday for mnz001>005-007-
008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

Update...hoppes
short term...Riddle
long term...Hopkins/Riddle
aviation...hoppes

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