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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Update...
issued at 947 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Isolated rain showers continue to sputter across northwest Minnesota so extended low probability of precipitation
for the remainder of the evening. No other changes made.

Update issued at 642 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Rain showers across NE forecast area becoming more isolated so lowered probability of precipitation early
this evening. No other changes at this point.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 350 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Generally cloudy conditions this evening and overnight...with
scattered showers edging back into the area during the overnight.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms should develop through
the day on Saturday...with some potential for severe storms
through the late afternoon and evening mainly across southeast ND
into northwest and west central Minnesota.

Model guidance has been inconsistent on location and potential for
heavy rains...with the European model (ecmwf) and 12z NAM favoring heavier rains
across far southeastern ND into west-central Minnesota on Saturday evening along with
the potential for severe weather. Heavier deformation zone type
precipitation is expected to set up across portions of central and
western ND throughout Saturday.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 350 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Sunday and Monday...model consensus has a dry slot developing
through the Red River valley on Sunday with residual shower
activity across the Minnesota lakes country into north central
Minnesota...and widespread light rain hanging back west of a Cando to
Bismarck line. Generally dry conditions Sunday evening could give
way to scattered showers along the Canadian border early Monday as
the surface low pressure system drags the back edge of the system
across the area.

For Monday night through Friday...models continue
coming into better agreement and a blended European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Gem solution is
reasonable for now. Otherwise...surface low pressure developing over
the upper Midwest is expected to lift into southern Manitoba and
Ontario...as an upper level trough looks to cross the area bringing
cooler air behind the system. Looking for decent frontogenetical
forcing to trigger -shra/-tsra along and ahead of the system.
Sufficient ll moisture will remain available to wrap behind the
low...keeping skies over the area mostly cloudy. As the upper trough
digs in...look for cooler temperatures continuing through the end of the
period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 642 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Ceilings have lifted most areas to high MVFR/low VFR. Guidance wants
to lower ceilings again late tonight and trended ceilings back down
towards sunrise. Will continue to look into fog potential towards
morning.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...voelker
short term...gust
long term...gust/Hopkins
aviation...voelker

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