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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
934 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Update...
issued at 931 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

We will be canceling the current Winter Weather Advisory in the
south and west with snow moving out. The main snow band will move
into northwest Minnesota this afternoon...with fairly strong middle level fgen and
an inch or 2 possible here...so will increase probability of precipitation.
Elsewhere...soundings in the west indicate that fzdz is possible
and will add a mention with warmer air moving in. Otherwise...no
other changes planned.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 305 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Forecast concerns snow trends today and temperatures. Models
overall in pretty good agreement. Will utilize high resolution
model guidance for snow trends today.

Most distinct snow band with lowest visibility over the SW forecast area showing
signs of weakening as it propagates eastward. Visibilities in this region
1/4-1 mile at times. Farther north returns weaker and visibility has
ranged generally from 1-3 miles. Winds also have diminished some
to general 15 to 25 knots range. So although visibility not a problem
across the north will maintain current headlines for now.
Otherwise for the remainder of the day snow band will continue to
slowly propagate east and should be confined to the far east by
evening and adjusted probability of precipitation accordingly. Overall with exception of
the SW looking at general 1-2 inch total snowfall. With warm
advection continuing should see a modest recovery in temperatures
especially across west which should see some afternoon westerly
winds.

Snow will linger across the far east this evening otherwise it
should be quiet. With light westerly flow and clouds temperatures
will be relatively mild.

Day time Monday should be mainly dry with highs generally around
30 degrees.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 305 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

Weak short wave will drop through Monday night bringing another
chance of light snow however accumulations should be on the light
side.

Following passage of wave a quick shot of cold advection will
bring a brief cool down into midweek but nothing serious.

Wednesday-Saturday...temperatures will quickly moderate through the
middle/late week period as a more zonal...progressive upper air pattern
develops...flooding much of the US with milder Pacific air. A
middle/upper level trough will push into the plains Thursday night/Friday with
model differences remaining with surface features...as well as precipitation
chances. For any precipitation...ptype will be an issue...with GFS/European model (ecmwf)
bringing 850 mb temperatures well above 0c by Thursday night into at least the
southern part of the area along with surface temperatures near freezing. Highs
Thursday-sun are expected to be near or above freezing...with even some
40s possible in spots.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 651 am CST sun Feb 14 2016

VFR ceilings over the far east should drop into MVFR range as snow
moves in. Farther west expect MVFR/IFR conditions to continue.
Visibility occasional in MVFR range will improve from west to east as snow
band shifts east.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...dk
short term...voelker
long term...makowski/voelker
aviation...voelker

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