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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 358 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Forecast challenge for the weekend will be temperatures as dry
weather continues and warm advection begins to increase with
westerly flow. A weak short wave will depart the far northeast and
eastern zones may see some early morning high clouds...but most of
region should be sunny by late morning. In terms of
temperatures the consmos is the warmest while 00z model data seemed too
cold...especially across the north. NAM was significantly cooler
while Gem was a complete outlier with daytime highs in the low to
middle 20s. Therefore will go with a consmos and weighted model blend
solution...which keeps temperatures in the upper 20s across the north and
low to middle 30s across the south. Overnight lows should drop into
the teens as winds will be light and variable before turning more
southerly on Sunday.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 358 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Forecast challenge then turns to onset of snowfall across the
south as a system develops in the Central Plains and warm
advection precipitation lifts north early in the week. Right now...there
is still considerable differences in models with GFS being the
driest and European model (ecmwf) being the most aggressive...bringing precipitation into
far southern valley as early as Monday morning. While this is
resulting in superblend bringing higher probability of precipitation across the south on the GFS solution and will keep northern half of the
region dry until Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...the period will start out with some
lingering light snow as the cut off low pulls off into the upper
Midwest. There is quite a variation between model solutions in exact
placement of the kept the blended probability of precipitation that have 30-40
percent over our south and east. After the upper low move off to the
east...we should be dry as the storm track stays well to our north
or with cut off lows off to the south. Temperatures should be above
seasonal averages throughout the coming week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 646 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015

VFR conditions today with light southwest winds becoming more
westerly during the afternoon hours. Overnight winds will become
light and variable.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...speicher
long term...Jr/speicher

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