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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

issued at 1139 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Adjusted probability of precipitation as convection still well west of the forecast area. Otherwise
no changes as will be now be monitoring for severe storms.

Update issued at 925 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Convective evolution across western ND continues to be slow with
main action across west South Dakota...east Montana and along the far southern mb/Saskatchewan
border area. A few strong storms have moved into far S central ND
between dik and bis and just moving across the Montana/ND border area.
Strongest shear with wave over west South Dakota and east Montana. Best low level
forcing still along ND/Montana border area vicinity surface low and associated
boundary. Based on current radar trends cut back on probability of precipitation but
maintained slight chances across the far west close to midnight but
uncertain with that. High resolution quick update models do not
bring anything into the west until just before day break. Severe
threat also somewhat in question. Instability remains however
convergence with modest low level jet not all that impressive.
Maintained current probability of precipitation later tonight but again severe threat not
all that clear.

Update issued at 629 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Only changes were to add some isolated thunderstorms and rain chances to the far SW forecast area
although current convection weakening.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 318 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Rather weak short wave over the middle Red River valley at middle afternoon.
Area of middle level altocu with this into parts of northwest Minnesota as well
gfk-dtl region. Still couple of showers in this area and will
continue mention through 23z. Otherwise warm air aloft seen on vsbl
Sat pictures with lack of cumulus from Bismarck area to near Stanley ND to
Estevan sk. Hrrr and other various WRF models quite similar in
showing activity increasing 23z-01z in eastern Montana or far western ND into
southeast Saskatchewan and then eventually spreading east and northeast..with
threat not into eastern ND until likely after 06z. Most short range
models also so a second area of storms in ecntrl South Dakota into central
Minnesota. All in all bulk shear is pretty good but main middle level jet
around the base of the 500 mb low is still west and northwest of
our area overnight so at this point the idea of severe outbreak
for eastern ND/northwest Minnesota points toward isolated at best as some clusters
or a squall line moves in. Coordinate with various offices and have
slowed down the probability of precipitation a bit more. Sunnier and less windy for
Thursday as high pressure builds in.

For Thursday night through Monday...still expecting a ridge to
develop over the western United States while low pressure remains
over Hudson Bay. This will put the forecast area in northwest flow for the
duration of the long term. This keeps the forecast area in a generally quiet
period although there may be some low end precipitation chances at times.
Exactly when a tough call at this point with no decent agreement
between solutions. Temperatures should remain near or slight below normal
for late July.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Ongoing convection exiting the Red River 12z Tuesday and exiting northwest Minnesota by
midday. Dry slot coming in and pretty strong 925 mb winds on the
south side of the upper low moves into central ND Tuesday afternoon and into
parts of NE/ecntrl ND late Tuesday afternoon/early evening. At this
Point...May flirt with High Wind Warning criteria for a short time
dvl basin with advisory conditions for a few hours other areas in
eastern ND. No headlines will be issued this forecast as it will past 18z
Tuesday and gives middle shift time to issue products as needed.

Wraparound clouds and a few showers to move into NE ND/northwest Minnesota Tuesday
night..exiting Lake of The Woods Wednesday morning. Breezy
Wednesday with a mix of cloud/sun.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1139 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Main challenge will be timing of potential T through taf sites
then increasing winds later tomorrow afternoon. At this point feel
far has the best potential with uncertainty continuing at other
sites. Later tomorrow dvl basin will be seeing very strong winds
developing with gusts higher than 45kts possible.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle
long term...godon/Riddle

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