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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
302 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 302 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Temperatures will be the main forecast problem for the short term.

Surface high pressure continues across much of the Dakotas as the main
northern branch upper trough moves off into Ontario. The high will
move into our eastern counties and light winds will switch to the
south over the western County Warning Area. Think that with mostly clear skies and
fairly light winds we will get into the low to middle 30s in the east
while mixing in the west will keep US closer to 40 degrees. There
should be some drying this afternoon which will help prevent
widespread fog formation overnight but will keep an eye on the
east where winds will be light and patchy ground fog is not out of
the question. The south winds will continue to slowly increase
throughout the day on Wednesday as the high moves further east and
surface low pressure develops over Montana. With sunshine...south
winds and a warmer air mass moving back into the area we should
get back into the 60s to low 70s for tomorrow.

Wednesday night...upper ridging will be centered over the plains
with southerly winds picking up as a trough of low pressure
deepens along the Montana/ND border. With mixing and increasing high
clouds lows Wednesday night should stay in the middle 40s.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Thursday and Friday...the flow transitions to more zonal in nature
as the next shortwave trough moves from the northern rockies out
into the plains and then off to the east. There are still some
slight differences in timing and intensity but models are in
general agreement on bringing some precipitation as the surface trough axis
moves across the region. Tweaked probability of precipitation to include some low chances
Thursday afternoon in the Devils Lake basin as the trough
approaches then moving eastward Thursday night and ending Friday
morning. Winds will be pick up on Thursday and good mixing and the
thermal ridge nearby should keep highs well into the 70s. There is
not a lot of cold air advection on the backside of the trough so
kept conditions very warm with lows in the 40s and highs in the
upper 60s and 70s for Friday.

Friday night through Tuesday...a fairly flat zonal flow kicks in
from the pacnw and across the northern plains late Friday and
persists into Tuesday. A series of weak impulses along that flow
could bring a slight risk of showers each day... with the highest
likelihood for measurable precipitation still targetting the
Sunday timeframe and again Monday evening into Tuesday morning.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

With surface high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas and a
building 500 mb ridge aloft... expect generally fair skies and light
winds through the remainder of today into tonight. Surface high
shifts over Minnesota by Wednesday light southerly
return flow will begin over the Dakotas through the forenoon. Drying
and warming airmass overall so morning fog is not expected.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Jr
long term...Jr/gust

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