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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 229 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Cloud cover the main issue early on. Western edge of MVFR stratocu
hanging on from just east of Hallock to Thief River Falls to near
Detroit Lakes and Wadena. In addition a fast moving 500 mb short
wave is dropping southeast and spreading an aera of middle and high
level moiture over North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This short wave is
fast moving and clouds with it will begin to clear from the
northwest this morning. Models do start to move the MVFR cloud
deck in our eastern forecast area east after sunrise. Net result is
that by early afternoon expect a mostly sunny sky in most areas.
Light northwest wind today and with more sun and some warm
advection...expect high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Milder
tonight as west winds bringing in a bit warmer air. Wednesday will
see plenty of sun but a west-northwest wind and temperatures about on par
with todays.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 229 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Next stronger short wave will drop southeast through northwest Ontario later
Wednesday night into Thursday morning giving a slight risk of a shower
or two. Main moisture with this will stay well to our northeast in
areas of strongest height falls. Some cold advection stratocu may
impact parts of northwest Minnesota Thursday late day and evening before high
pressure moves in late Thursday night. Temperatures will cool some
for Thursday/Thursday night to a tad below average.

Friday-Monday...surface high pressure will build across the northern
plains on Friday and slowly migrate southeastward through the
weekend providing tranquil weather for the region. A brief surge of
cooler air will likely keep temperatures generally in the 40s on
Friday...with temperatures down well into the 20s for Sat morning with the
surface high nearby. Temperatures will rebound through the weekend with return
flow developing behind the high. Northwest flow pattern will flatten early
next week with the GFS/European model (ecmwf) bringing a few upper level impulses
through the area...but will continue with mainly dry forecast
through Monday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1126 PM CDT Monday Oct 12 2015

Higher clouds continue to move into the area and should linger
into Tuesday morning. The lower clouds east of the Red River valley
will likely linger into Tuesday morning as well. Left some patchy fog
around sunrise at ktvf. Much lower northwest winds expected through
the day Tuesday which will then die down by early evening.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Riddle
long term...makowski/Riddle

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