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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
630 am EST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Short term /today through Friday/...
short wave moving through the Ohio/Tennessee valleys early this
morning producing some light precipitation in far north Georgia
where so far temperatures have remained warm enough for mainly rain.
Better precipitation has already lifted north and east of the state
however isolated patches of light rain or mixed precipitation will
remain possible through middle morning. Short wave quickly sweeps into
the middle-Atlantic coastal region this morning with northwesterly
upper flow becoming established over Georgia as the upper trough
axis finally pushes east of the state. Dry and cool weather settles
in through Friday as the northwesterly upper pattern persists and
high pressure builds in at the surface.


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
GFS/European model (ecmwf) in good agreement through the upcoming weekend...then
differences begin. Both models show rising 500 mb heights with high
pressure shifting to our east bringing US a south to southwest low
level warming temperatures. By Monday Canadian high
pressure builds into the upper Midwest pushing a cold front into the
Ohio and Mississippi valleys. Both GFS/European model (ecmwf) bring this front into
the Tennessee Valley Monday/Tuesday but they differ on the amount of
moisture with the European model (ecmwf) a little less aggressive. Will keep probability of precipitation
confined to north Georgia as both models also weaken the front. Then as
we push into middle week next week both models are out of sync with
each other with positions of short waves and location of deepest
moisture. Until there is more model consensus will go with less than
slight chance probability of precipitation for Wednesday/Thursday.




12z update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through this forecast period. Ceilings 3-6kft will prevail across
the northern 1/2 of the area through 18/20z...including all of the
metropolitan Atlanta taf sites. Local MVFR or lower ceilings are possible
across the north Georgia mountains through 18z along with scattered
light rain or rain mixed with snow. Skies becoming scattered after
18z all areas except the far northern portions which should see
scattered clouds by 00z. West winds 8-12kt...becoming more west to
northwest and increasing to 10-14kt west/ gusts 19-25kt by 14z...
diminishing to 6-10kt after 00z.

//Atl confidence...12z update...

Medium on ceilings through 18z...high otherwise.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 50 26 49 32 / 5 0 0 5
Atlanta 47 27 48 36 / 5 0 0 5
Blairsville 43 24 47 30 / 20 0 0 0
Cartersville 48 25 49 30 / 10 0 0 5
Columbus 53 29 54 35 / 5 0 0 5
Gainesville 47 28 48 35 / 10 0 0 5
Macon 55 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 48 25 50 29 / 10 0 0 0
Peachtree City 49 25 50 28 / 5 0 0 5
Vidalia 57 33 54 35 / 0 0 0 5


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...20
long term....17

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