Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
617 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM EST Friday Nov 28 2014/
Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
Surface high pressure remains across the state through the Saturday
as the center of the high transitions from the Gulf of Mexico over
central Florida. The result is clear skies and weak winds. The
center of the high slides off the Carolina coast early Sunday...with
zonal flow aloft. Dry forecast persists into the extended period
with no modeled features upstream.
Temperatures will be near seasonal norms Saturday...and with
southerly flow remaining across the area...a gradual warm up is
expected into Sunday with temperatures reaching the 60s in the
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
no major changes to the extended. Still held onto low end chance
probability of precipitation across north Georgia Monday night into Tuesday with incoming
disturbance. Wedge looks to try to build in Tuesday which could
have implications regarding cooler highs on Tuesday.
Otherwise...kept in slight chance probability of precipitation for parts of north Georgia
late next week as models still disagree on solution that far out.
See the previous forecast below for more details.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) in good agreement through this weekend with dry
conditions and a slow warming trend. Difference develop with the
next short wave for early next week. The GFS has more moisture
while the European model (ecmwf) is maintaining a drier solution. Given that
moisture is lacking...am trending with the less aggressive European model (ecmwf)
and keeping slight chance to chance probability of precipitation for extreme north Georgia
Monday night through Tuesday night. The next system for the end of
next week also has differences. The GFS is much more aggressive
with moisture while the European model (ecmwf) is much slower with the system
keeping the moisture well to the west. Will go with slight chance
probability of precipitation for north Georgia toward the end of next week. No major
temperature swings as the short waves are moving through a west to
southwest flow keeping the cold Canadian air well to the north of
basically a wind forecast as VFR is expected through the period.
There is some hint of moisture at 5k feet Sat afternoon but feel it
will mix out before any cumulus can develop.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 30 56 39 64 / 0 0 0 5
Atlanta 33 56 43 63 / 0 0 0 5
Blairsville 28 55 36 61 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 29 58 39 63 / 0 0 0 5
Columbus 33 60 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 31 55 40 61 / 0 0 0 5
Macon 28 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 28 58 38 64 / 0 0 0 5
Peachtree City 26 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 5
Vidalia 34 61 45 69 / 0 0 0 0