Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
430 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015
Short term /today through Friday/...
no big change in the short term weather pattern. The forecast area
sits on the western side of the upper ridge and ripples of short
wave energy should affect the area through Friday. Looks like best
moisture influx remains from the central Gulf area into Alabama and
western Georgia so have kept the probability of precipitation highest for north and western areas
today and again Friday. Models indicate the eastern section of the
state into the western portion of the Carolinas should be a bit
drier today and especially Friday. Major threats for any
thunderstorms that develop should again be heavy rain and winds.
Have stayed close to guidance temperatures.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease quickly Friday night
with the loss of daytime heating and a weak upper flow that will
allow for minimum forcing.
With some drier air over the area on Saturday...shower and
thunderstorm chances will be minimal favoring the far north and west
and the far southeast portions of the County Warning Area.
An upper trough over the middle U.S. Begins to influence the area on
Sunday with slightly increased moisture and instability. The trend
of increased moisture will continue through Wednesday as an upper
level low develops over the lower MS valley...allowing for a deep
moist southerly flow over the area. This will continue with
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms that will maximize
during the afternoons and evenings due to increased instability
from the heating of the day.
On Thursday...the GFS is developing a tropical looking surface
low pressure system over the southern Caribbean and moving it to the
Florida coast late Thursday. The European does not. This will need to
be watched with future runs of the models.
Temperatures running around to several degrees above normal through
the long term.
area of showers/thunderstorms across north Georgia will continue to
diminish overnight. Expect some MVFR ceilings to develop by 09z
especially at taf sites that get rain. Gradual improvement to
VFR by afternoon. Convection expected to develop again this
afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds for the remainder
of the night but gusty in thunderstorms. Light southeast winds
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 85 65 84 64 / 40 30 30 10
Atlanta 83 67 83 66 / 70 40 40 10
Blairsville 78 62 79 61 / 70 40 40 20
Cartersville 82 64 84 64 / 70 40 40 20
Columbus 85 67 87 66 / 60 20 30 10
Gainesville 82 66 82 65 / 60 40 40 20
Macon 87 63 87 64 / 40 20 20 5
Rome 83 65 84 64 / 70 40 50 20
Peachtree City 83 64 84 63 / 60 30 40 10
Vidalia 88 65 87 68 / 20 10 10 5