Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
706 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

have made minor adjustments to current forecast trends...generally
to temperature and dew point grids. Overall forecast continues to
be on track and no significant changes are expected before the
overnight forecast package.



Previous discussion... /issued 156 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015/

Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
decent agreement in guidance for short term trends as ridging across
southeast Continental U.S. Is prognosticated to weaken and allow for more zonal flow
with an approaching elongated frontal system from the northwest by
late Saturday. Otherwise should see continued above normal temperatures
with many locations near 10 degrees above climatology. Chance for some
early morning patchy fog given forecast dewpoint depressions and
weakening gradient winds. Forecast soundings indicate middle level moisture
building in ahead of aforementioned system so should see an Alto
deck start to filter in by Saturday afternoon. This may limit temperatures
in the north to be slightly cooler though still warm. Any probability of precipitation hold
off until late Saturday night in the far northwest tier.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
increase probability of precipitation on Sunday across north Georgia as model consistency and
agreement is becoming better with the next system. No other
changes planned. Previous discussion follows...


Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
upper ridge holding over the southeast at the start of the period
will keep the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the lower MS
valley into Tennessee/Kentucky region through Monday. This should confine probability of precipitation
to the northern sections of the forecast area Sunday...gradually
spreading into the central sections Monday into Wednesday. Upper
flow becomes more southwest middle week as a strong low moves from
the central states into the Great Lakes...pushing the front into
north Georgia but weakening it. So it looks like the forecast area may
remain in a constant moist southwest flow through the end of the
period. Have continued with probability of precipitation through Thursday except for a
brief break probably Wednesday night mainly north.



00z update...
generally VFR conditions expected through the period...with MVFR
ceilings possible early Saturday due to increasing moisture. At this
time have included scattered 1500-2500 feet. Have also continued with MVFR
visibilities. Middle to high level clouds expected by Saturday afternoon.
Winds generally east-southeast at 8kt or less...with possible south-southwest winds in
the afternoon briefly.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium to low confidence on MVFR potential Saturday morning.
High on all other elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 47 69 48 69 / 0 0 5 30
Atlanta 50 70 52 68 / 0 0 10 30
Blairsville 45 67 49 63 / 0 5 20 60
Cartersville 49 69 50 66 / 0 0 20 40
Columbus 52 73 52 72 / 0 0 5 10
Gainesville 49 67 51 66 / 0 0 10 40
Macon 48 72 47 72 / 0 0 5 10
Rome 49 69 50 65 / 0 5 30 60
Peachtree City 47 71 48 69 / 0 0 5 20
Vidalia 51 73 51 73 / 0 0 5 5


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...31
long term....nlistemaa

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations