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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DRIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST 
DURING THE SHORT TERM. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES 
EXPECTED TO GIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING 
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT THE FREEZE WARNING AS IS 
BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT NOT CONFIDENT 
ENOUGH TO ADD MORE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO 
WATCH THIS. THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM AL MAY AFFECT THE 
TEMPERATURES ALSO...DEPENDING ON IF AND WHEN THEY GET TO THE 
FORECAST AREA AND HOW LONG THEY LINGER. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER 
00Z MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE 
SOUTHEAST.
 
 
FIRE WEATHER... A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED 
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRE AT 00Z BEFORE 
ISSUING THE NEXT. FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW 
AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE ON HUMIDITY OR TIME...BUT SEE NO REASON TO 
TRY AND LEAVE THESE AREAS OUT. 

41


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST ARE MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MINOR DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN
EMWF/GFS THEY BOTH AGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST SHOWERS
MONDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LAGGING THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AFTER
TUESDAY...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS AND MOVES TOWARD
WEST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE GOOD GULF MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
BY WEEKS END. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY FOR NOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

ATWELL


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887    
                                        1907                
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887    
                1945                                        
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955    
                                                    1953    
                                                    1948    
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966    


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/ 

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SKY SHOULD BE CLEAR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AL MAY AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT MACON AND ATHENS.
HAVE INCLUDED SCT060 FOR A FEW HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z FOR ALL EXCEPT 
MCN/AHN. OTHERWISE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN 
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE OF NORTH EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO 
SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. 

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  59  44  66 /   5   0  40  50 
ATLANTA         32  59  47  66 /   5   5  40  60 
BLAIRSVILLE     23  54  42  61 /   5   5  60  50 
CARTERSVILLE    27  60  46  66 /   5   5  70  50 
COLUMBUS        33  63  48  73 /   5   0  20  60 
GAINESVILLE     28  57  45  64 /   5   5  60  50 
MACON           30  61  45  72 /   5   0  20  50 
ROME            26  60  47  67 /   0  10  70  40 
PEACHTREE CITY  29  60  46  68 /   5   0  40  60 
VIDALIA         34  62  45  71 /   5   0  10  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...41

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