Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
143 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Previous discussion...
Update...
/issued 1017 am EDT Friday may 24 2013/
lower clouds across north Georgia are holding in place and have
drifted south into the Atlanta metropolitan area. Have gone ahead and
increased cloud coverage across north Georgia in the
grids...however should see lower clouds dissipate as we move into
the afternoon. Besides this...forecast is on track and no changes
planned.
11
Short term /today through Saturday/...
/issued 408 am EDT Friday may 24 2013/
deep upper trough remains in control of the eastern Seaboard...with
exiting front moving into the Atlantic. Flow is transitioning to
northwest aloft as cool Canadian high pressure slides down from the
Great Lakes today. Surface gradient will remain strong today...but
though winds should remain just below advisory criteria it will
likely still be enough to warrant fire danger conditions...see below
for more on that. Strong cold air advection in the wake of the frontal passage and
with the northwest flow aloft will lead to much cooler temperatures
today than yesterday by a good 6-8 degrees all but extreme southern
zones. The cooler temperatures and breezy conditions for today will be the
start to a very pleasant Memorial Day weekend.
As the trough axis shifts east later today and tonight a cutoff low
will form over the New Jersey area. The 00z European model (ecmwf) is a tad faster
and a little stronger than the GFS but they along with the NAM are
in good agreement with their lack of impacts to the southeast. The
big story will be low temperatures tomorrow night...which will flirt
with or possibly drop below record lows. Current record for mcn is
49 and we have 48 forecast. Other sites look to be just above but
this will be reevaluated later today. Winds will be significantly
decreased on Saturday as the ridge axis settles over the area.
Amplitude of the longwave pattern will decrease some on Saturday
leading to slightly warmer conditions all except extreme southern
zones /which should be a little cooler on Saturday compared to today
as the cold air advection finally gets down there/...but still several degrees
below seasonal normals and overall a great day to be outside.
Tdp
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
/issued 408 am EDT Friday may 24 2013/
mostly a dry forecast through the period. Georgia under northwest
flow aloft into the first of the week. GFS/European model (ecmwf) show a series of
weak impulses moving southeast that may affect mainly north Georgia.
However impulses are hard to time and models differ in amount of
moisture with each. For now a slight chance looks reasonable across
the north on Sunday and again Monday. Upper ridge builds over the
state into the remainder of the week. At the surface...high pressure
over the Atlantic will give a moist southeast flow to the area but
this may only mean an increase in cloudiness. Upper ridging should
help to suppress thunderstorm development. Have generally made only
minor tweaks to the temperatures.
41
Fire weather...
fuels dried across the area yesterday with significant portions of
southwest and northwest zones dropping below 8 percent. The rest of
the area hovered generally between 9 and 10 percent. Winds today
should reach the 15 miles per hour fire danger criterion and some areas in
northeast Georgia may drop below 25 percent relative humidity. Rather than getting
fancy with trying to pick and choose counties...feel it is best to
just issue a Fire Danger Statement for the entire area. With breezy
conditions today...fuels should dry further and expect that another
Fire Danger Statement will be needed on Saturday. Duration of relative humidity
values below 25 percent on Saturday will need to be closely
reevaluated in the event a red flag warning is warranted.
Tdp
Climate...
Records for 05-24
Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1912 65 1966 71 1998 42 1931
katl 95 1996 60 1895 72 2000 45 1892
kcsg 97 1996 73 1977 74 1996 51 1954
kmcn 97 1960 65 1899 73 2000 46 1931
Records for 05-25
Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 100 1926 65 1979 71 2004 46 1979
1956
katl 93 1960 63 1895 72 2004 46 1979
1953 1953
kcsg 95 2012 71 1979 75 2000 51 1979
2011 1956
1953
kmcn 98 1953 65 1923 74 2000 49 1979
&&
Aviation...
18z update...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. The few050
clouds in the atl metropolitan area should dissipate over the next two
hours. Main challenge of the taf is the timing of the wind shifts
and at this point have gone towards the middle of guidance in
terms of timing.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence on ceilings and visibilities. Medium confidence on timing of
wind shifts.
11
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 78 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 76 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 72 41 74 47 / 10 0 0 5
Cartersville 74 44 78 47 / 5 0 0 0
Columbus 83 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 76 49 76 53 / 5 0 0 0
Macon 82 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 75 45 78 46 / 5 0 0 0
Peachtree City 78 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 86 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...11
long term....37
aviation...11
