Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
338 PM EDT Monday may 20 2013
Short term /tonight through Tuesday/...
models all in good agreement through the short term. The upper low
that brought the precipitation to the region over the weekend is slow to
exit but it is doing so. Some lingering convection south of the fall
line where the cap is the weakest this afternoon should dissipate
after sunset. Expect another area of low clouds Tuesday morning
along with some light fog but this should dissipate after sunset.
The upper ridge continues to build into the southeast
Tuesday...becoming more like our Summer pattern with afternoon and
evening convection. All models forecast plenty of cape with little
cin over the area Tuesday afternoon with the best instability over
the mountains and the eastern parts of the County Warning Area. Will maintain slight
chance/chance probability of precipitation across much of the County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon. A
little more sunshine will help temperatures push well into the 80s with
some lower 90s across west central Georgia on Tuesday.
17
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast. Upper level trough
approaching on Wednesday and combined with associated moist and
instability will give potential for numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms across mainly north Georgia and mainly scattered showers and
storms for central Georgia. A weak cold front gets into the area late
Thursday...possibility associated with some upper level
support...will give the chance for showers and storms. Best
moisture and upper support drifting east on Friday allowing for
only a slight chance of showers and storms. Overall moisture and
instability appear lacking Saturday into Monday and while precipitation
potential is not zero it looks to be less than 20 percent at this
time. Temperatures running within 5 degrees of normal through the
period.
01
&&
Aviation...
18z update...
most ceilings have gone VFR. A broken deck moving into the atl area
should rise above 3000 by 18z and remain VFR through the afternoon.
Expect scattered convection south of the fall line this afternoon
but this should dissipate after sunset. IFR/MVFR ceilings to redevelop
late tonight across much of the area with 2-5sm with fog. This
should dissipate during the morning. Winds will remain light with a
southwest component from csg-atl-ahn while mcn holds on to a south
to south south east wind. All areas going near calm tonight and then
southwest again on Tuesday.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium on ceilings this afternoon and after 09z Tuesday.
High on remaining elements.
17
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 64 87 64 84 / 10 30 40 40
Atlanta 67 86 67 82 / 5 20 30 50
Blairsville 58 83 63 75 / 5 40 30 60
Cartersville 64 88 66 83 / 5 20 20 60
Columbus 69 92 67 89 / 5 20 20 30
Gainesville 64 85 66 81 / 5 30 40 60
Macon 65 89 64 88 / 10 20 30 30
Rome 63 89 66 82 / 5 10 20 70
Peachtree City 63 88 63 83 / 5 20 30 50
Vidalia 68 89 68 87 / 30 30 30 30
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...17
long term....01
aviation...17
