Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
929 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014


Have made several minor modifications to grids to add detail to
probability of precipitation and end measurable precipitation a little earlier for most of the
area for the overnight period. That said...did leave drizzle
wording in for several more hours. Minor adjustments to winds but
no significant changes. For now...temperatures doing okay but drier
dewpoints filtering in across northwest zones where cloud cover is
thinning. No adjustments to overnight lows yet as it is still a
little too early to get a good handle on trends but will be
monitoring. Will send a round of product updates shortly.



Previous discussion... /issued 737 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...

Slow moving upper level low pressure near the eastern Georgia/Florida border
making for a difficult forecast. The low is forecast to move into
the western Atlantic overnight taking surface low pressure with it
through the period. Main problem has been how high or low the
chances for light rain should be and along with periods of drizzle
through the overnight into Easter Sunday. The good news is precipitation
amounts will be light...except for a brief period this afternoon over
the area southeast of mcn where some MUCAPE could fire isolated
thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will be brief as the cape is
expected to diminish quickly by 00z.

The lingering small precipitation chances to start Easter Sunday over the
far east central counties...along with periods of drizzle for mainly
central Georgia...will end quickly around midday. Then the rest of the
forecast will be varying amounts of clouds across the area.

Still some pressure gradient across the County Warning Area but any gusty winds
will settle down tonight but will kick up again for part of

Forecast low temperatures tonight running near to slightly below
normal and may be a little too low based on current dew points.
Forecast low temperatures Sunday night running near to slightly
below normal. Forecast high temperatures for Easter Sunday running
5-12 degrees below normal with mcn having that 12 degree departure
due to lingering cloud cover.


Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
long term begins dry as upper ridge builds briefly over the state.
Next short wave and front on track to move across the County Warning Area Monday
night and Tuesday...and probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms still
look okay. Have held on to slight chance of showers Tuesday night
across central zones...12z models seem a bit slower with the
surface front. Next short wave set for Friday into Saturday. In big changes to the long term. Previous discussion is
included below.


Previous long term /415 am EDT Sat Apr 19 2014/...
main closed low just off the Georgia/Carolina coast stays fairly
stationary through sun and Monday before weakening and pushing
further out to sea Tuesday. Clouds will diminish across the state Sun
night with precipitation ending . Models are in very good agreement
through most of the extended with minor differences in timing and
available moisture with next system Tuesday.

00z Monday...a shortwave over the middle of the country develops into
a closed low center and moves over the Great Lake states by 00z
Tuesday. Its trailing colds front sweeps through the Mississippi River
valley and into na Georgia by 12z Tuesday. Will see shower and
thunderstorms sweep through the state Tuesday and could see some
fairly strong storms as instability indices increase during the
day Tuesday. The latest model runs are showing a bit less instability
that previous runs but still keeping thunder in the forecast.
Will have to keep a close eye on this as to just how much thunder
we will southeast. This front should be east of the state by 00z to 06z
Wednesday with high pressure building back in for the rest of the week.


00z update...
low VFR predominates the metropolitan tafs...still MVFR at ahn/mcn/csg
and should remain there overnight. Metropolitan tafs...especially atl...
will probably go MVFR again briefly...current timing is 07-10z...
lifting back to VFR thereafter but staying low VFR through most of
the day. Should see -dz or -ra through portions of the overnight
with brief MVFR visibilities not out of the question. Expect low VFR ceilings
to scatter around 20-21z for northern tafs. Winds east to NE through
the period with gusts subsiding somewhat on Saturday.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium-high on winds...specifically gusts.
Medium on ceilings and visibility.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 48 68 46 78 / 30 5 0 5
Atlanta 49 68 52 77 / 30 5 0 5
Blairsville 48 70 46 75 / 30 0 0 5
Cartersville 49 72 49 77 / 30 0 0 5
Columbus 51 70 52 79 / 10 5 0 5
Gainesville 49 67 49 74 / 30 0 0 5
Macon 50 66 48 78 / 20 5 0 5
Rome 49 73 48 78 / 30 0 0 5
Peachtree City 48 69 47 77 / 30 5 0 5
Vidalia 52 66 53 79 / 20 10 5 5


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...