Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
733 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Short term /today through Friday/...
/issued at 327 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013/
a weak 800 mb low over the Florida Panhandle and an associated weak 500 mb
trough will be enough to aid in convection across central Georgia this
afternoon and also Friday afternoon. Differential heating in the
northeast mountains will also aid in convection...mainly along the
ridge line both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Will maintain
chance probability of precipitation across these areas today and Friday. Cant rule out an
isolate thunderstorm elsewhere across the County Warning Area with daytime heating
and will maintain 20 probability of precipitation for the rest of the County Warning Area. Do not expect any
significant warm up in maximum temperatures today and Friday with a northeast
to east surface flow and will maintain temperatures pretty close to
persistence through Friday.
17
&&
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
/issued at 327 am EDT Thursday Jun 20 2013/
guidance is in decent agreement throughout the long term and have
therefore gone with a general blend. Hybrid cad wedge looks to
linger on across the area into Saturday mainly allowing for
diurnally driven convection near the periphery across the southern
tier of the County Warning Area. There will continue to be potential for
orographically enhanced development in portions of the north as
well.
Southeasterly to southerly low level flow will prevail Sunday
into early next week as the surface high slides farther southeast off
the central coast. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in better agreement now
with advecting a more enhanced area of deep layer moisture in off
the South Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast from the weekend Onward.
Have therefore raised probability of precipitation through the majority of the forecast
period but stuck below likely wording. Development should increase
in coverage gradually during the daytime periods through the first
half of the long term as the environment becomes progressively more
moist and unstable. Presence of broad upper ridge across the eastern
Continental U.S. Should keep any upper level forcing for ascent well north of
the region and development should be largely diurnally driven. Temperatures
through the period indicate little variation from day to day and
should stay mainly near to slightly above normal with highs
generally in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.
Baker
&&
Aviation...
12z update...
a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR ceilings across central Georgia should become all VFR
by 15 to 17z. From atl to ahn mostly clear skies but with initial
lifting could see few to sct015 which should lift to 3500 to 5000 by
middle to late morning. MVFR ceilings should redevelop across central Georgia
late tonight with sct015 across north Georgia. Best chance of convection
will be across csg/mcn areas and also the mountains. Winds will
remain northeast to east around 10 kts or less today and diminishing
tonight.
//Atl confidence...
12z update...
medium confidence on ceilings
high confidence remaining elements.
17
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 85 66 85 67 / 20 20 20 10
Atlanta 85 67 85 69 / 20 20 20 10
Blairsville 81 63 81 62 / 40 20 40 20
Cartersville 85 65 85 67 / 20 20 20 20
Columbus 87 71 87 71 / 30 20 40 20
Gainesville 82 67 82 68 / 20 20 20 20
Macon 86 68 86 69 / 30 20 30 20
Rome 86 65 88 67 / 20 20 20 20
Peachtree City 86 64 86 67 / 20 20 20 20
Vidalia 87 69 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...17
long term....Baker
aviation...17
