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Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
740 am EDT Monday may 25 2015

Short term /today through Tuesday/...
upper ridge centered over the Atlantic coastal region puts the
forecast area in a southerly flow aloft. Axis of deeper moisture
will gradually drift eastward across our area as a couple of short
waves move into the lower MS valley through Tuesday. Have continued
with likely probability of precipitation this afternoon and evening and again Tuesday mainly
for northern and western areas. Heavy rain should be the main threat
with the convection. Wpc quantitative precipitation forecast puts around 2.00 inches into northwest
Georgia through the day Tuesday. Will continue to watch for any potential
Hydro issues. East to southeast low level flow should keep the area
mostly cloudy today...with any breaks in the cloud cover affecting
the maximum temperatures. Have stayed close to guidance numbers.

41

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
moist SW flow aloft will be over the area to start the long term.
Significant deeper moisture and upper level shortwave potential
will affect north and much of central Georgia...with continued rather high
chances for showers and thunderstorms...into Thursday. Showers
and storms will have some diurnal tendency but not exclusively. Due
to the position of the upper ridge over the west Atlantic...the highest
chances of showers and storms will be over north and West Georgia.

A ridge aloft builds some on Friday and continues Saturday and should
allow for a much more diurnal tendency to the showers and storms.
The GFS and European upper patterns are different on Sunday with less
influence of a ridge aloft from the European.

Rainfall totals approaching 3 inches across portions of north Georgia
into Thursday. Will be monitoring for any flood issues.

Temperatures running near to slightly above normal for daytime highs
and 2 to 7 degrees above normal for nighttime lows.

Bdl

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
widespread MVFR ceilings should gradually improve to bkn030-040 after 15z.
Showers and a few thunderstorms in central Alabama currently moving north. Look
for a gradual development of convection into western Georgia late this morning with
showers and thunderstorms spreading eastward through the day. Convection
diminishing late evening. Winds should remain east to southeast 10kt or less.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium on timing of improvement of MVFR.
Medium to high on remaining elements.

41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 83 68 81 67 / 40 40 60 70
Atlanta 81 69 80 68 / 60 50 70 80
Blairsville 76 64 75 63 / 50 60 70 80
Cartersville 81 68 81 67 / 60 60 70 80
Columbus 85 70 84 70 / 60 50 60 60
Gainesville 79 67 78 66 / 40 50 70 80
Macon 86 68 85 69 / 50 30 50 60
Rome 80 68 81 67 / 60 60 70 80
Peachtree City 82 68 81 67 / 60 50 60 80
Vidalia 87 70 87 70 / 30 20 20 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...41
long term....bdl
aviation...41

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