Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
348 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
upper level trough and associated frontal boundary moving through
the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Although a drier air mass
accompanies the front and will continue to move into the
state...moisture associated with the trough will return to far north
Georgia through this evening...and have continued mention of slight
chance showers and thunderstorms across that area. Diminish any
remaining probability of precipitation quickly after 03z.
Main concern through the short term will be the tight pressure
gradient across the area...and the associated gusty winds. As of
now...models consistent with keeping winds below Wind Advisory
criteria...and have held off on issuing anything at this time. In
general...expecting northwest winds of 10 up to 20 miles per hour with gusts to
30 miles per hour. Overnight shift will need to re-evaluate.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through the
weekend. Have generally gone with a model blend for temperatures and
dewpoints.
31
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
no major changes made to the current extended forecast. Dry
weather is expected to continue across the area through Sunday and
for the most part based on the GFS...through Thursday. However the
European model is indicating a wetter northwest flow aloft across north and
parts of central Georgia starting Sunday night with a weaker upper
ridge and greater potential for short waves to affect the area.
Current forecast has low probability of precipitation across north Georgia on Monday and Tuesday
and will just continue that forecast for now as a compromise. No
instability to speak off until Tuesday afternoon where there might
be enough for thunderstorms over far north Georgia. Upper ridge over the
area for Wednesday into Thursday. Keeping probability of precipitation none for Wednesday
except for low probability of precipitation over the NE mountains where southerly flow and
some instability could cause afternoon showers and storms.
Temperatures generally running within 6 degrees of normal through
the period except Saturday morning lows are running about 10-15
degrees below normal and Sunday morning lows running about 6-12
degrees below normal.
01/bdl
&&
Aviation...
18z update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds are the main
forecast concern. Northwest winds will be 12-16kt with gusts to
22-26kt today and Friday afternoon. Winds will be slightly lighter
/7-12kt/ overnight before increasing again Friday.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence on all elements.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 58 78 47 80 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 59 76 51 78 / 5 0 0 0
Blairsville 54 72 42 75 / 20 0 0 0
Cartersville 57 76 45 80 / 5 0 0 0
Columbus 64 82 54 83 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 58 76 49 77 / 20 0 0 0
Macon 60 82 48 82 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 57 76 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
Peachtree City 57 77 45 79 / 5 0 0 0
Vidalia 66 86 56 83 / 5 0 0 0
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...31
long term....01
aviation...31
