Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
730 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014/
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
high pressure building across the forecast area as low pressure
continues to drift off the middle Atlantic coast. Drier air has brought
clearing skies to much of the County Warning Area and think the remainder of the County Warning Area
should continue to clear this afternoon/evening. Upper ridge holds
over the County Warning Area through Monday but next short wave moves into the
middle MS valley late Monday night. A return to southwest flow ahead of
the trough should bring some rain to the northwest corner of the County Warning Area
by 06z. Have kept probability of precipitation north and west of the Atlanta to Athens areas
Monday night. No instability indicated Monday night so have no
mention of thunder. Northeast winds should diminish this evening as
ridge builds aloft. Have stayed close to guidance temperatures.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
adjusted probability of precipitation up on Tuesday to...likely(60-70%)...for portions of
north and central Georgia as amble moisture associated with the cold front
should make showers more likely than not with the chance of
thunderstorms continuing. Otherwise mainly only tweaks to the
forecast based on the latest guidance. Bdl
00z Monday...a shortwave over the plains states develops into a closed
low center and moves over the Great Lake states by 00z Tuesday. Its
trailing cold front sweeps through the Mississippi River valley and
into na Georgia by 12z Tuesday. Will see showers and thunderstorms sweep
through the state Tuesday and could see some fairly strong storms as
instability indices increase during the day Tuesday. The latest model
runs are showing a bit lees instability than previous runs but still
keeping thunder in the forecast. Will have to keep a close eye on
this as to just how much thunder we will seen. This front should be
east of the state by 00z to 06z Wednesday with high pressure building back
in for Wednesday and Thursday. Next frontal system will begin to affect the
area again by Friday as a developing system moves east out of the MS
River Valley. The models are showing a bit more instability with the
Friday system than the Tuesday one but its showing there showing less
available moisture. Will have to monitor the situation to southeast how
VFR through the period. NE winds still hovering near or just above
5kt will diminish overnight and should shift around northwest and west on
Monday as high pressure moves across. Current timing is around 17z.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium on timing of wind shift.
High on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 47 77 54 80 / 0 0 10 70
Atlanta 51 75 59 77 / 0 0 10 70
Blairsville 43 74 52 71 / 0 0 30 70
Cartersville 47 75 55 75 / 0 0 20 70
Columbus 50 78 57 78 / 0 0 10 70
Gainesville 49 74 56 75 / 0 0 20 70
Macon 46 77 53 80 / 5 0 5 60
Rome 47 76 55 74 / 0 0 30 70
Peachtree City 45 76 54 77 / 0 0 10 70
Vidalia 50 77 54 81 / 5 0 5 20