Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
333 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Short term /today through Monday/...
continued reasonable agreement between short term guidance. Upper
low over New England exiting toward the Atlantic...with weak
northwest flow aloft over the southeast that will gradually
transition to a summertime ridging pattern. Surface high ridging
south from the Great Lakes will work its way east and eventually
offshore...bringing a moist southerly flow back into the area by
midday Monday. Series of shortwaves riding down the northwest flow
from the Midwest will continue to bring intermittent mainly high
clouds into the area today and tonight...while a more substantial
wave currently over the Southern Plains will push through the
southeast on Monday. With southerly surface flow and orographic lift
combining with the weakness aloft...have continued slight chance
showers and thunderstorms across northern zones mainly late Monday.
Storm Prediction Center does include a good portion of the area in a general thunder
outlook for Monday...with convective available potential energy increasing to just under 1000 j/kg.
Not much in the way of shear...but with the weak upper level
support...it cannot be ruled out that we get an isolated strong
pulse thunderstorm or two. The best location for convection will
have to be refined still but for now looks like mainly north of a
Rome to Gainesville line.
High temperatures today should be several degrees warmer than yesterday...
closer to seasonal normals. Expect an additional increase to above
average on Monday with increasing thicknesses...though especially
across north Georgia this will depend on amount of cloud cover. So
with the Memorial Day Holiday...it looks like Summer temperatures will have
officially started with the warm pattern remaining in place into the
extended.
Tdp
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in pretty good agreement for the first part
of the long term...then things become a little problematic toward
the end of the long term. Weak short waves will continue moving
across the northern part of the County Warning Area Monday evening and also
Tuesday afternoon and evening and will therefore maintain slight
chance of thunderstorms in that area. The 500 mb high will build over
the eastern part of the nation with the center developing over the
Middle Atlantic States. This will put the County Warning Area in an easterly flow.
This is where it become problematic. The GFS is progging an
easterly wave into the state Friday through the weekend while the
European model (ecmwf) is weaker and drier. The European model (ecmwf) has changed its scenario
while the GFS is maintaining some consistency and therefore will
lean heavily toward the GFS solution. Will add slight chance probability of precipitation
to the southern part of the County Warning Area Friday through Sunday. The
Atlantic moisture associated with this wave is expected to rotate
around the 500 mb high bringing the risk of precipitation to the entire County Warning Area
Saturday evening. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
period with increasing humidities.
17
&&
Aviation...
06z update...
VFR through the period...with few-scattered high clouds passing
through. Winds generally westerly and light /less than 5kt all but
atl/... though expect a shift to the east at atl toward the end of
the period.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium-high on timing of wind shift.
High on all other elements.
Tdp
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 83 57 85 61 / 0 5 10 10
Atlanta 83 62 84 64 / 0 5 10 10
Blairsville 78 53 81 57 / 0 5 20 20
Cartersville 83 55 86 60 / 0 5 10 10
Columbus 87 64 87 66 / 0 5 5 5
Gainesville 80 59 83 63 / 0 5 20 20
Macon 85 57 86 61 / 0 5 5 5
Rome 83 55 86 61 / 0 5 10 10
Peachtree City 84 55 85 61 / 0 5 10 10
Vidalia 86 61 88 64 / 0 5 0 5
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...tdp
long term....17
aviation...tdp
