Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1056 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Update...
with high pressure building in from the northwest and a dry
forecast...there was little to adjust in the morning update. Only
changes were to account for the hourly trends.

&&

Previous discussion...

Short term /today through Thursday/...
/issued 312 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/
very dry and cool forecast on tap for the short term as strong
ridging continues into the County Warning Area from the north along the back side of
a deepening cutoff low impacting New England. Bufr soundings showing
continued extremely dry profiles and any hind of moisture is only by
Thursday afternoon where we may get some cirrus.

Main concern is with frost potential Thursday morning as some of the
coldest temperatures of the season look to be reached with optimal radiational
cooling...aforementioned ridging...and calm to light winds. Latest
guidance has come in slightly cooler than previous runs also. Middle
30s look to be possible for western portions of the County Warning Area along with
low 30s possible for higher elevations of northeast Georgia. Have
included patchy frost mention for now...though trends in guidance
later today will be monitored for extent of potential frost advisory
issuance.

Baker

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
/issued 312 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/
continued dry forecast for much of the long term.

High pressure will dominate much of the long term...but two cold
fronts are expected to impact Georgia during the period. An early weekend
cold front should move through late Friday/early Saturday...but
precipitation is not anticipated. A second cold front should move
through the region during the middle of next week. Models are
producing some slight chance probability of precipitation with this feature...but chances
remain too small to mention at this time.

Friday and Saturday mornings currently have the coldest min temperatures.
Will have to continue to monitor trends...if temperatures are colder then
patchy/areas of frost may be an issue for the northeast Georgia mountains
high temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal for the period.

Nlistemaa

Aviation...
12z update...
/issued 744 am EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014/
VFR conditions expected with mostly clear skies through period.
Winds mainly north-northwest though could be close to north or slightly east
of north briefly for northern sites. Magnitudes generally 7-11 kts
with lower values at southern sites today then light to calm
overnight.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
high all elements.

Baker

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 68 40 71 45 / 0 0 0 5
Atlanta 67 45 70 50 / 0 0 0 5
Blairsville 61 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 67 36 69 42 / 0 0 0 5
Columbus 72 44 72 49 / 0 0 0 5
Gainesville 66 42 68 48 / 0 0 0 5
Macon 72 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 5
Rome 67 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 5
Peachtree City 69 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 5
Vidalia 71 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...11
long term....17
aviation...11

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations