Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1026 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded due to ongoing and
expected snowfall and impacts.
Previous discussion... /issued 625 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
have yet to see much in the way of accumulating snowfall across the
area although isolated to scattered flurries and light snow showers
continue across the northwestern half of the area. Still looking for
an increase in coverage of snow showers today into this evening as
the next short wave rotates through the area. The remainder of the
forecast period should see mostly flurries retreating north as the
upper trough shifts slightly north and east of the state and cold
advection and orographic effects dominate. Snowfall totals are not
noticeably changed with this forecast cycle and no changes are
planned for the Winter Weather Advisory. Winds increase once again
today through Wednesday and combined with the cold temperatures in
place across the region will result in advisory level wind chill
values in the northeast Georgia area so no plans to alter the Wind
Chill Advisory either at this time.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
weak boundary over the middle Mississippi River valley is expected to
drop south across the southeast states Wednesday and Thursday. By
late Thursday...the old boundary will become nearly stationary
across central Georgia. A wave of low pressure will move east along the
boundary on Friday. In previous model runs...some very low probability of precipitation/light
precipitation was being produced with this system. The latest runs have
removed a good deal of the measurable precip/pops. So have followed
suit and removed the slight probability of precipitation in the forecast for this period.
Behind this low pressure system...high pressure builds in for the
A cold front will begin to move into the lower Mississippi River
valley early Monday and continue eastward through the early week.
Probability of precipitation should begin to increase across the County warning forecast area into Tuesday.
Currently...there could be some ptype issues as the system moves
through. However...the forecast will likely change this far out.
Mainly IFR conditions currently across the forecast area...but
ceilings are spreading from northwest to southeast into the Atlanta
metropolitan taf sites as we head into 12z. The northwestern third of the
forecast area...including the metropolitan Atlanta taf sites...should see
MVFR ceilings through at least 00-04z. I do not currently expect the
kahn/kcsg/kmcn taf sites to drop below VFR conditions. Katl will
likely return to VFR conditions by 06z. Isolated to scattered snow
flurries or snow showers will persist across the northern third of
the area through 00z...becoming lighter and more isolated after.
Northwest winds 8-12kt west/ gusts 16-22kt currently will increase to
10-14kt west/ gusts 20-25kt by 14-16z.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
Medium to high.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 39 23 38 21 / 20 10 5 0
Atlanta 37 23 37 24 / 40 20 5 0
Blairsville 30 18 29 15 / 90 30 20 0
Cartersville 36 22 36 20 / 80 30 5 0
Columbus 42 26 43 27 / 20 5 5 0
Gainesville 35 22 35 21 / 50 20 5 0
Macon 43 26 43 24 / 10 10 0 0
Rome 36 22 36 20 / 90 30 10 0
Peachtree City 39 23 38 22 / 40 20 5 0
Vidalia 46 28 45 28 / 5 5 0 0
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am EST Wednesday for the
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST Thursday for the following