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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
645 am EST Monday Nov 24 2014

Update...
made a few adjustments to the probability of precipitation and weather across the southern
and eastern edges of the forecast area to account for increased
convection moving across far south Georgia and brushing the southern
and southeastern portions of the area. Adjusted clouds a little as
well.



20

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 337 am EST Monday Nov 24 2014/

Short term /today through Tuesday/...
cold front sweeps across the forecast area today. Indications are
passage will be generally dry across the majority of the area and I
have kept probability of precipitation confined mainly to southern and eastern portions of
the area where better moisture and marginal instability remain. Will
need to keep an eye out for any showers across western portions
early in the day along and ahead of the front. Enough instability
across the far south and east to include a chance of thunder for
this afternoon. Some shear is present due to strong middle-level winds
but is generally unidirectional and severe thunderstorms do not
appear likely. Front stalls out somewhere just south of the forecast
area tonight as the upper-level trough axis remains west of the
region. Moisture returns Tuesday from the south as a strong short
wave digs to the lower Mississippi Valley inducing fairly rapid
surface low development in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Low moves
across the Florida Peninsula to the southeast Atlantic coastal
waters which keeps the best precipitation chances south and east of
our area...but scattered showers are expected to spread northward
during the day Tuesday.

20

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
surface low moving across Florida and up the coast of the
Carolinas Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will spread showers
back to the northwest across much of the forecast area with
highest probability of precipitation over eastern sections. There remains the possibility
of some mix of precipitation across northeast Georgia Tuesday night.
Will continue to watch for this...however not looking for any
accumulations. Model thickness values vary some over this area
Tuesday night but for now seems as though the critical thickness
values stay west of the area. Showers ending from the west
Wednesday as the surface low moves up the Atlantic coast. Upper
flow becoming more northwest on Wednesday but gradually
transitions to zonal by the end of the period. Dry Thursday
through Saturday...but a front gets pushed into the Tennessee Valley on
Sunday and there may be a slight chance of showers across the far
north.

41

&&

Aviation...
12z update...

Mainly MVFR ceilings across the northern 2/3 of the area currently.
IFR/LIFR ceilings across the far south. Expecting a slow improving
trend with most areas VFR by 16-18z. Will see scattered MVFR or
lower visibilities between 12z and 14z as well. Scattered showers
will persist across the far southern portion of the forecast
area...but will stay south of the taf sites. Southwest winds 6-10kt
through 14z...increasing to 10-14kt west/ gusts 18-24kt and becoming
westerly 14z-18z.

//Atl confidence...12z update...

High confidence on all elements except medium confidence on timing
of transition from IFR to MVFR and eventually VFR ceilings during
the day.

20

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 41 57 40 / 20 10 10 60
Atlanta 67 41 56 39 / 10 10 10 50
Blairsville 63 36 54 36 / 20 10 10 50
Cartersville 64 38 55 38 / 10 10 10 40
Columbus 73 44 57 41 / 20 10 20 70
Gainesville 66 40 55 39 / 10 10 10 50
Macon 74 44 58 41 / 30 20 40 80
Rome 63 36 55 37 / 10 10 10 20
Peachtree City 68 37 56 38 / 10 10 10 60
Vidalia 77 51 60 45 / 60 30 60 80

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...20
long term....41
aviation...20

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