Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
333 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
current radar loop shows
showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating around main low pressure
center along the Alabama/Georgia border. This low is expected to continue
moving north to northeast and will weaken as it does. The models
also show the main area of moisture over north Georgia and the Carolinas
moving northeast overnight. This will help to end the precipitation
over the area by midnight. There may be a few left over showers
across north Georgia but thats it. The models are showing the upper ridge
over the northern Gulf building slightly northward Monday and the
moisture remains of Erika remaining south and east of the forecast
area. There will still be some moisture over the area Monday but it
will be a lot less than today. Going with low chance probability of precipitation across
north and central Georgia Monday. Instabilities expected to be fairly
weak for this time of year so only going with a slight chance of
thunder Monday as well. This fits well with Storm Prediction Center as they currently
have US in just a general thunderstorm risk for Monday. Temperatures will
be in the 60s and 70s for lows...and mainly in the 80s for highs
with some 70s in the north Georgia mountains.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
unsettled weather will continue into the extended portion of the
forecast. No major changes needed.
The unsettled weather will come in two forms for the extended...an
upper low that pretty much stays parked across the Gulf
states/northern Gomex and the remnants of Erika.
Models have continued the trend of shifting the deepest tropical
moisture associated with erikas remnants eastward. So...the highest
quantitative precipitation forecast should remain across the far eastern zones. As far as the upper
low GOES...the feature could help keep convective precipitation more
scattered/isolated in the west. Either feature will have abundant low level
moisture to work with.
Another by-product of the upper low will be that temperatures will struggle
to get out of the 80s for much of the period.
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Cloud conditions are ranging from IFR to VFR across the area but
the most sites are in the MVFR range. Should continue to see MVFR
ceilings for a few more hours then lift to VFR around 00z. Lower
IFR to MVFR ceilings will move back in tonight. The precipitation should
end around 090z also. Other than in and around strong convection
not expecting any restrictions to visibilities. Winds are out of the east
and expected top stay there through the period. Wind speeds will
be in the 10-14kt range this afternoon subsiding to 10kt or less
//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium to high confidence on all elements
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 67 84 69 88 / 70 30 20 30
Atlanta 69 85 70 88 / 50 30 20 20
Blairsville 62 81 63 83 / 50 30 20 30
Cartersville 67 85 67 88 / 50 30 20 20
Columbus 70 89 71 90 / 50 20 20 20
Gainesville 67 82 69 86 / 70 30 20 30
Macon 70 87 70 89 / 50 30 20 20
Rome 67 85 67 89 / 50 30 20 20
Peachtree City 67 85 68 88 / 50 30 20 20
Vidalia 72 86 73 89 / 70 40 30 30