Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
349 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Short term /tonight through Monday night/... current radar loop shows
a few showers still hanging around over NE Alabama moving NE into northwest Georgia.
They appear to be weakening and should not cause any issues as they
move into the state. For the short term we appear to be moving into a
bit of a drier pattern as a drier airmass begins to move into the
region from the upper Mississippi River valley today. We should
still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms today but they
should just be general thunderstorms with nothing severe expected.
This drier airmass pushes all the way into central Georgia by Tuesday
morning but more moisture moves in right back into northwest g behind this
dry air by Tuesday afternoon. The models are showing the deeper
moisture staying north of the County Warning Area so not expecting anything major
through the short term just continued afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms...a typical summertime pattern. Temperatures should be
near seasonal norms with highs in the 80s and 90s...lows in the 60s
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
Long term period begins with middle and upper level ridge building
over the southeast states including the local area allowing for
somewhat drier conditions. Still plenty of low level moisture
trapped under this ridge so would still expect low end scattered
probability of precipitation for much of the area on Wednesday. Pretty much this same
pattern continues for Thursday and Friday as ridge continues to build in
but no real change in the moisture profile all points to at or
below climatology probability of precipitation through weeks end.
By the weekend...upper ridge builds westward and strengthens.
Would imagine models are behind the curve on available moisture
and seem too keen on generating convection through Sunday. With
subsequent runs...if ridge in fact is as strong as
advertised...rain chances will likely come down in the models and
will go ahead and indicate this in new grid set.
Likewise...models likely too cool by the end of the period leaning
too heavily on climatology and will go higher than guidance for maximum
temperatures with 595dm ridge building in.
06z update... a few showers lingering across the area but should not
affect the taf sites. IFR ceilings expected to move into the atl
area taf sites between 08z-10z then lift an scattered out through 18z.
Also expecting some fog this morning but it should be mainly patchy
and short lived. With drier air moving in this afternoon still
expecting some scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain but not sure just how much the taf
sites will be affected. Have a prob30 in the tafs but will need to
make a decision to take it out or upgrade to a tempo on the 12z taf
set. Winds expected to stay west to SW in the 5-10kt range.
06z update... medium confidence on ceilings this morning but high on
all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 89 70 92 72 / 30 20 30 20
Atlanta 86 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 20
Blairsville 83 64 85 65 / 30 20 40 20
Cartersville 87 69 89 70 / 40 20 30 20
Columbus 88 72 91 73 / 40 20 30 20
Gainesville 86 70 88 72 / 30 20 30 20
Macon 90 71 93 72 / 40 20 40 20
Rome 87 69 90 70 / 40 20 30 20
Peachtree City 87 69 90 71 / 40 20 30 20
Vidalia 90 72 94 73 / 50 30 40 20