Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
940 PM EDT sun Jul 5 2015
convection is at a minimum across the forecast area...although a few
showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop during the night.
Have reduced the probability of precipitation to slight chance...except have kept chance in
the northeast. Otherwise no changes.
short term /tonight through Monday night/...
upper low continues to pull away from the County warning forecast area this afternoon and is
now located across eastern Kentucky/western Virginia.
Two main areas of precipitation are persisting across the County warning forecast area this
afternoon. The first is a larger area of precipitation in the southeast. The
second area of precipitation is more cellular in nature...and is closest to
the forcing provided by the upper low. A drier forecast is expected
for the short term period.
With the loss of heating this evening...expect coverage of storms to
decrease. Skies should remain cloudy...with low clouds and patchy
fog developing by sunrise. The low clouds and fog should burn off by
A return to a more typical summertime pattern is expected beginning
Monday. The longwave trough associated with the upper low to the
north will begin to dampen out late Monday into Tuesday. The upper
flow on Tuesday is expected to be SW...so moisture will continue to
be transported northward from the Gomex. With no real boundary to
focus convection...will leave probability of precipitation at scattered.
Have cancelled the Flood Watch a little early. Not expected the
scattered storms up north to produce flash flooding.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
only tweaks to the long term based on the lastest guidance.
a quieter weather pattern still looks on tap for the extended
periods as models continue to show high pressure building over
the deep south by middle week and persisting into the weekend. At
this time... it appears the best chance for scattered afternoon
and evening storms will be on Tuesday before the stronger ridge
influence begins to take better hold by Wednesday. Increasing
ridge subsidence should bring ample sunshine and help push daytime
highs into the 90s for most areas. This heat will warrant holding
onto a low chance of diurnally driven convection each day... and
a few pulse strong to severe storms during maximum heating cannot be
convection has diminished and nothing threatening the taf sites. An
isolated thunderstorm may still be possible overnight but chances
too low to include in tafs. Model soundings suggest some MVFR/IFR
ceilings overnight and have included in tafs. Diurnal cumulus
expected again Monday with scattered convection mainly afternoon
and evening. Winds will remain on the west side.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium on overnight ceilings. High on other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 68 89 70 92 / 40 30 20 30
Atlanta 70 86 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
Blairsville 62 83 64 85 / 50 30 20 40
Cartersville 68 87 69 89 / 30 40 20 30
Columbus 70 88 72 91 / 30 40 20 30
Gainesville 68 86 70 88 / 40 30 20 30
Macon 70 90 71 93 / 30 40 20 40
Rome 68 87 69 90 / 30 40 20 30
Peachtree City 69 87 69 90 / 30 40 20 30
Vidalia 71 90 72 94 / 40 50 30 40