Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
814 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Previous discussion... /issued 332 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
current radar loop shows some showers and thunderstorms across south
Georgia and Florida as a low pressure system spins just off the Gulf
Coast of Florida. We currently do not have any precipitation in our County Warning Area but
moisture is increasing so will be increasing probability of precipitation especially
across central Georgia Wednesday. Main upper level ridge is centered
just off the Atlantic coast of Florida and is still helping to keep
precipitation to a minimum at least in the short term. There is still a
decent amount of low level moisture in place but overall
instability looks to be lacking. The weak surface high pressure
has also build into the area and is kind of setting up like a weak
wedge. Light easterly flow and mostly cloudy skies all day across
the state are classic signs of a wedge. High temperatures expected to be
right at or slightly above seasonal norms Wednesday with lows in
the 60s and 70s.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
only a slight chance probability of precipitation for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon with no real
focus for convective development in the County Warning Area. A bit more coverage
is possible on Friday with more influence from an upper level
disturbance to our west...especially according to the European model (ecmwf).
Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be warm with afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the forecast area.
The biggest change in the weather pattern for the long term will
Be The Wedge that will push down the Appalachians into our area
for the weekend. Saturday looks to be the wettest day as the
backdoor front moves in with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms which linger into Sunday. Temperatures will be held
down...ranging from the upper 70s into the middle 80s for highs with
abundant cloud cover and more precipitation coverage. This pattern should
begin to break down by early next week as the surface high
pressure in the northeast shifts further east into the Atlantic.
VFR conditions expected through period. Mostly clear and calm to
light and vrb conditions overnight. A bit greater moisture
advecting in from the south Wednesday but generally scattered to broken cumulus
field in 3500-4500 feet range. After 15z winds light northwest for near
katl and could be vrb elsewhere. Precipitation chances stay too low and
far south to include in taf at this time.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium on winds.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 90 71 91 / 5 10 10 20
Atlanta 72 90 73 90 / 5 10 10 20
Blairsville 64 85 65 85 / 20 30 20 20
Cartersville 68 90 69 90 / 5 10 10 20
Columbus 73 91 73 92 / 5 20 10 20
Gainesville 70 89 71 89 / 5 10 10 20
Macon 71 91 72 91 / 5 20 10 20
Rome 68 90 69 90 / 5 10 10 20
Peachtree City 69 90 70 90 / 5 10 10 20
Vidalia 73 91 73 93 / 20 40 20 20