Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
940 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

no changes planned for this evening...current forecast remains on
track. Still looks to be an unseasonably cool night with mostly
clear skies and dry air in place. Moisture is expected to begin
increasing late from the east/southeast. Current freeze warning
still looks good...the majority of the area will remain above
freezing and frost chances are minimal as winds are expected to
remain high enough to keep the lower levels sufficiently mixed.



Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
mostly zonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest overnight. At the
surface high pressure will continue to nose into the County Warning Area setting up
a wedge pattern through the short term. Low pressure developing in
the northeast Gulf should bring showers back into the central and
southern Georgia area by Thursday night. Have included low probability of precipitation across
much of central Georgia beginning 00z Friday. Air mass remains stable
through the period so no thunder has been mentioned. Temperature
guidance looks close through the period. Due to east winds...have
generally stayed a bit on the warmer side of the mins and toward the
cooler side of the maxes. Overnight lows should be above freezing
across the County Warning Area tonight except for the NE corner. Have issued another
freeze warning for that area. Winds should stay up a bit overnight
so not expecting frost to be an issue. Think clouds should stay out
of the County Warning Area tonight...but easterly winds may bring them westward
after sunrise tomorrow.


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
long term models are beginning to merge in their solutions for the
the next system on Friday. European model (ecmwf) continues to be aggressive in
bringing precipitation further north but indications in the 12z runs have
been for the GFS to trend toward a more northward solution as
well. Will continue with chance probability of precipitation north to likely probability of precipitation south on
Friday...transitioning to eastern sections late Friday.
Instability remains very low with this system and only the extreme
south should see thunder chances and it will be marginal at best.

More discrepancies for early next week as we transition to more
zonal flow and issue becomes trying to time embedded shortwaves.
GFS is quicker than the European model (ecmwf) and brings first system through on
Monday for the north. Both eventually bring a main impulse through
but the GFS indicates it will be early tu while the European model (ecmwf) is
hinting more Tuesday night. Have split the difference for now but if
trends continue with subsequent model runs...will likely need to
increase pop chances. Instability certainly looks more impressive
than other systems this year and with modest shear will need to be
monitored closely for severe potential.


00z update...
VFR conditions expected to predominate through the majority of this
forecast period. Will likely see MVFR ceilings across portions of
central Georgia between 09-16z. Otherwise ceilings between 3-6kft
will spread across the area by 18z. East winds prevail through this
forecast...generally 5-10kt through 12z...increasing to 10-14kt with
gusts 15-25kt after.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence on all elements...except medium on ceilings for



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 36 63 47 64 / 0 5 10 40
Atlanta 41 60 52 64 / 0 5 10 40
Blairsville 31 61 42 65 / 0 5 10 40
Cartersville 36 62 47 67 / 0 5 10 40
Columbus 42 66 53 69 / 0 10 30 40
Gainesville 38 59 47 63 / 0 5 10 40
Macon 40 65 52 67 / 0 5 20 40
Rome 35 62 47 67 / 0 5 10 40
Peachtree City 36 63 50 67 / 0 5 10 40
Vidalia 44 67 55 69 / 0 10 30 70


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Thursday for
the following zones: Fannin...Lumpkin...towns...Union...white.



Short term...41
long term....16