Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
306 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
relatively quiet forecast period as weak high pressure north of the
area and northwest to west flow aloft dominate the northwest majority of
the County Warning Area with abnormally dry thermal profiles and mostly capped
convective environment. The far southeast portion of the area looks
to be influenced by the evolution of a weak area of low pressure
slowly tracking northeastward from the Florida Panhandle this evening to off the
far southeast Georgia coast by Monday afternoon. This should allow for some low
level moisture advection off the southeast Atlantic. While this has
allowed for scattered shower development and isolated thunderstorm
potential in the southeast County Warning Area today...chances look to be a bit more
confined to the far southeast Monday with some enhanced cloud
General blend of guidance for temperatures has verified well recently aside
from some underestimated solar sheltering from the aforementioned
southeast moisture. Monday highs should rebound back to the middle 90s
for many areas though could be limited in the southeast.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
no major changes to the long term portion of the forecast.
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through middle to late week. An
upper disturbance will dig south on Thursday...carving out a longwave
trough across the eastern US. The County warning forecast area is will remain in northwest flow
through the weekend. The upper high will begin to build back
eastward by the first of next week.
Moisture will increase by the middle of next week as a cold front
approaches from the north. The front is expected to impact the County warning forecast area
Friday into Saturday...bringing the best rainfall chances in a
mainly VFR conditions expected for most sites through period.
Lingering stratocu in southeast near kmcn otherwise can expect few
to scattered in 4-5 kft this afternoon. Cannot rule out isolated
-shra/-tsra in southern sites but chance too low to include. Mostly
clear or few cirrus overnight and only few cumulus 4-5 kft Monday
afternoon. Winds generally staying east to NE through afternoon with
calm to light north-northeast overnight and swing northwest by 14z /possibly earlier
for katl/ Monday. Kmcn has best chance of sites to have any early
morning reductions in visibility/ceilings so have included MVFR visibility though
//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium on timing of wind shift to northwest for near katl.
Medium to low on morning ceilings/visibilities for kmcn.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 69 95 70 98 / 5 5 5 5
Atlanta 72 95 74 95 / 5 5 5 5
Blairsville 59 90 62 90 / 5 5 5 5
Cartersville 65 95 67 96 / 5 5 0 5
Columbus 73 98 73 98 / 10 10 5 5
Gainesville 69 94 71 94 / 5 5 5 5
Macon 70 97 69 100 / 10 10 5 5
Rome 63 96 66 96 / 0 5 5 5
Peachtree City 66 94 66 96 / 5 5 5 5
Vidalia 73 93 73 98 / 20 20 20 10