Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
313 PM EDT Monday may 25 2015

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
models continue in good agreement for the short term. First wave of
precipitation...currently over Alabama will move into the County Warning Area later this
afternoon and continue into the evening hours. As this wave lifts
into the Carolinas late tonight the precipitation will diminish. However
the next wave will move into the County Warning Area late Tuesday morning and
Tuesday afternoon...then stall over the County Warning Area Tuesday night. This will
bring another round of precipitation. Total rainfall amounts for tonight
through Tuesday night will range from 1 to 2 inches across west and
north Georgia...with less than 1 inch over the rest of the area. At this
time while there may be some localized flooding in the stronger
storms...widespread flooding is not expected at this time.


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
extended models continue to advertise moist southerly flow across
the southeast through much of the week...keeping chance to likely
probability of precipitation across the area. A more diurnal trend is expected through the
weekend. Have made only minor adjustments...mainly to day seven
with the latest model solutions. The previous forecast discussion
is included below.



Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
/issued 347 am EDT Monday may 25 2015/
moist SW flow aloft will be over the area to start the long term.
Significant deeper moisture and upper level shortwave potential
will affect north and much of central Georgia...with continued rather high
chances for showers and thunderstorms...into Thursday. Showers and
storms will have some diurnal tendency but not exclusively. Due to
the position of the upper ridge over the west Atlantic...the
highest chances of showers and storms will be over north and West

A ridge aloft builds some on Friday and continues Saturday and should
allow for a much more diurnal tendency to the showers and storms.
The GFS and European upper patterns are different on Sunday with less
influence of a ridge aloft from the European.

Rainfall totals approaching 3 inches across portions of north Georgia
into Thursday. Will be monitoring for any flood issues.

Temperatures running near to slightly above normal for daytime highs
and 2 to 7 degrees above normal for nighttime lows.



18z update...
convection will continue to increase through the afternoon and
into this evening...however expect convection to diminish after
sunset in the mcn/csg areas. There should be a lull in the precipitation
late tonight but should increase again Tuesday afternoon. Most
areas have gone VFR on ceiling and this will continue this
afternoon...dropping to IFR late tonight with a slow rise to MVFR
late Tuesday morning.

//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium on precipitation timing...ceilings
high on wind and visibilities



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 66 83 66 82 / 60 70 80 70
Atlanta 68 82 67 80 / 60 80 80 70
Blairsville 65 76 64 75 / 60 70 80 70
Cartersville 67 81 66 80 / 60 80 80 70
Columbus 70 85 69 83 / 50 70 60 70
Gainesville 66 79 65 78 / 60 70 80 70
Macon 68 86 68 85 / 50 50 50 70
Rome 67 80 66 80 / 60 80 80 70
Peachtree City 68 81 67 81 / 60 70 80 70
Vidalia 71 88 70 87 / 50 40 40 30


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...17
long term....31

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations