Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
625 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014/
Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
precipitation has just about pulled east of the entire forecast area
and will be well east of the area by the time the tonight period of
the forecast begins. Clouds also beginning to sweep east and erode
from the northwest as well. Still some tighter surface pressure
gradient with the proximity of the surface low...however the low
continues to move away from the area and this gradient should relax
quickly as we head into the evening with winds subsequently
diminishing. The majority of the short term forecast period is
dominated by weak upper ridging moving into the region behind the
system currently exiting which will provide a quick return to near
to slightly above seasonally normal temperatures and no
precipitation for the forecast area through most of the period. A
weak frontal boundary sinks into the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians late in the period with a slight chance for showers
into the far north late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
not much change to the extended this afternoon. Made some minor
adjustments to highs on Sunday...bringing them just a tad warmer
to account for thicknesses and warm air advection. Reduced Sunday afternoon probability of precipitation
as all guidance really dries up any precipitation associated with the
front. No noticeable temperature change behind the weak front.
Midweek system still on track for mainly heavy rain potential...
still not seeing anything that warrants adding thunder just yet
and certainly no concern for wintry precipitation...but expect a marked
cool-down behind the front.
Previous discussion... /issued at 400 am EST Friday Mar 7 2014/
long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
a weak cold front moves into north Georgia Saturday night with only small
precipitation chances associated over north Georgia and mainly north and West Georgia on
Sunday. However...the NAM was much wetter than the GFS or European
The next system approaches on Tuesday with a cold front moving
across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Significant
differences between the GFS and European. The European is faster
moving precipitation chances over the area on Tuesday and the GFS is dry.
GFS is then faster moving the cold front across the area and quicker
to dry things out than the European and the European is slower with
the upper trough. Precipitation chances maximize Tuesday night and
Wednesday but continue into Wednesday night. Precipitation chances on
Thursday will depend on if the drier GFS is correct of the slower
European. For now favored dry on Thursday. Temperatures will be too
warm for anything other than rain and forecast instability appears
to weak for thunderstorms. Temperatures will favor above normal
until the front moves across late in the period.
high pressure will continue to build in across the southeast states
overnight. Winds are expected to be 5kt or less as the gradient
relaxes overnight. A few cumulus around 050 will linger this
evening...but skies will go clear for a period. Thin cirrus may
begin to overspread the region before sunrise. A few cumulus are
possible during the afternoon tomorrow. Winds will be west less
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 36 69 43 71 / 5 5 5 10
Atlanta 37 68 46 68 / 0 5 5 10
Blairsville 35 63 41 63 / 5 5 20 20
Cartersville 36 68 42 67 / 0 5 10 20
Columbus 38 70 47 71 / 0 5 5 10
Gainesville 37 67 45 67 / 5 5 10 10
Macon 36 70 45 72 / 5 5 5 10
Rome 36 68 43 67 / 0 5 20 20
Peachtree City 35 68 42 69 / 0 5 5 10
Vidalia 37 71 48 73 / 5 5 5 5