Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
238 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
high pressure centered just off the New England coast with its axis
nosing down the eastern Seaboard continues to dominate the weather
pattern. This ridge will keep things dry through the short term. The
ridge center is forecasted to continue moving further offshore
but its axis remains centered along the East Coast. This will keep
moist easterly across the area with mostly cloudy sky conditions
through Friday. Still not expecting any precipitation yet as the ridge is
still very strong and the increased moisture is still shallow.
Temperatures have rebounded back to seasonal norms with lows tonight
expected mainly in the 40s and highs Thursday in the 60s to near 70.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
a few minor changes in the early part of the long term. Models
continue to delay the onset of the precipitation and have made the proper
adjustments to the probability of precipitation. No other changes planned. Previous long
term discussion follows...
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
models are slowing up next front...building an upper ridge across
the southeast. By Saturday morning both GFS and European model (ecmwf) put the
surface boundary generally across west Tennessee and into Kentucky. Through the
weekend...short waves are expected to develop on the front over
the lower MS valley. By the first of the week...both models seem
to gradually weaken the front as it sinks to the south with a
wedge pattern forming across the forecast area. In general there
should be an increase in moisture through the period. Have pulled
back on probability of precipitation mainly Saturday and Sunday...but have spread showers
across the forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday. No
convection indicated as the air mass seems to be too stable.
Lowered maximum temperatures a bit mainly east on Sunday through
Tuesday due to easterly winds.
MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area this afternoon as
moist easterly flow continues. Will continue to see MVFR range
ceilings through tonight lifting back to VFR Thursday afternoon. Ceilings
will stay broken to overcast through the period. Winds are also expected to
stay out of the east. Wind speeds are in the 10-15kt range with some
intermittent gust to 22kt. Expect wind speeds to stay around 10-12 knots
through tonight and into Thursday but will loose the gust over night. No
precipitation or restrictions to vsbsy expected.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
confidence high on all elements
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 41 62 48 63 / 0 0 5 5
Atlanta 43 62 50 64 / 0 0 5 10
Blairsville 38 61 45 62 / 0 0 5 10
Cartersville 42 63 49 64 / 0 0 5 5
Columbus 48 68 53 69 / 0 0 5 5
Gainesville 42 60 48 62 / 0 0 5 10
Macon 46 68 51 69 / 0 0 5 5
Rome 42 65 49 64 / 0 0 5 5
Peachtree City 42 64 49 65 / 0 0 5 5
Vidalia 49 70 55 71 / 0 5 5 5