Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
348 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
Models in good agreement with rather quiet weather all in all.
The upper ridge has built some over the area from the western
Atlantic. An axis of deep moisture moves over southeast Georgia and gets close
to some of the counties southeast of mcn where 20-30 percent probability of precipitation will
be for the afternoon and evening...associated with a surface trough
and some increased instability. There could also be some increased
instability over the NE mountains as well giving the possibility
for an afternoon/evening shower or storm. As for the rest of the area...
chances for precipitation are too low to mention as overall instability is
Not much change for Wednesday. The upper ridge weakens some. The southeast
surface trough is closer to central Georgia so probability of precipitation are just a little higher
and over a larger portion of central Georgia...and once again over the NE
Forecast high temperatures running around normal today and
near to 3-4 degrees above normal for Wednesday. Forecast low
temperatures running 2-3 degrees above normal tonight.
Overall confidence is high.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
The long term begins relatively uneventfully. Only slight chance
probability of precipitation for Thursday afternoon with no real focus for
convective development in the County Warning Area. A bit more coverage is possible
on Friday with more influence from an upper-level weakness to our
west...especially according to the European model (ecmwf). Temperatures both Thursday
and Friday will be warm with afternoon high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s across the area.
The biggest influence in the long term will be The Wedge that will
push down the Appalachians into our area for the coming weekend.
Saturday looks to be the wettest day as the backdoor front moves in
with lingering chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Sunday. Temperatures will be held down...ranging from the upper 70s
into the middle 80s for highs with abundant cloud cover and more
precipitation coverage. This pattern should begin to break down by early
next week as the surface high center in the northeast shifts
further east into the Atlantic.
VFR conditions expected...except for some MVFR visibilities until
12-14z. Scattered-broken 4000-5000 cumulus during the afternoon. Surface winds
highly variable 6 kts or less.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
low confidence for wind direction.
Low-medium confidence for afternoon ceilings.
High confidence other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 89 70 90 71 / 10 10 30 20
Atlanta 88 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 20
Blairsville 84 64 85 65 / 20 20 20 20
Cartersville 88 68 90 69 / 10 10 20 20
Columbus 90 73 91 74 / 10 20 20 20
Gainesville 87 70 89 71 / 10 10 30 20
Macon 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 30 20
Rome 88 68 90 69 / 10 10 20 10
Peachtree City 88 69 90 70 / 10 10 30 20
Vidalia 90 73 90 73 / 30 20 40 20