Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
734 am EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 248 am EDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
guidance in good consensus for short term with another dry frontal passage
advecting very dry air into the County Warning Area. We stay on the west side of
high amplitude upper trough energy prognosticated to cutoff and linger near
the middle-Atlantic coast. Translated surface pressure systems with
strengthening low off the East Coast and high building in behind
from the north will enhance gradient winds for our area out of the
northwest. Magnitudes should still stay under critical fire weather
thresholds however. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies and return
to below normal temperatures tonight and Wednesday with overnight mins in
the low to middle 40s for much of area /some higher elevations in NE Georgia
possibly upper 30s/ and highs Wednesday generally upper 60s to low 70s.
Nice and fall-like.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
The extended period begins with a moderately strong high pressure
system settling over the Ohio Valley with ridging southward
through north Georgia. Guidance definitely trending cooler with
this system with some members indicating lows around freezing for
the higher elevations of the mountain counties. Went with a bias
corrected blend for now which for the most part does keep most
areas above freezing but will need to be watched closely with
subsequent forecasts. Appears we may see just enough low level
flow to preclude significant frost development across the metropolitan but
lighter wind to the north should yield patchy to perhaps even
areas of frost by Thursday morning.
Tranquil conditions persist for the remainder of the long term
period with only threat of any measurable precipitation with the next
front late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Should be just outside
of this forecast cycle and 12z Euro did not even pick up on this
potential but will take a look at 00z Euro before making final
decision on probability of precipitation. For now though...leaning toward continued dry
forecast for the next seven days.
VFR conditions expected through period with some spotty MVFR visibilities
this morning. Mostly clear skies with some few cumulus field possible
today. Another dry front pushing southeastward should increase
gradient winds out of northwest through today increasing to 8-10 kts
gusting 14-18 kts after 15-17z...then decreasing to 4-7 kts after
00z this evening.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium on initial MVFR visibility potential.
High all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 44 69 40 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 73 48 68 46 / 5 0 0 0
Blairsville 66 38 62 33 / 10 0 0 0
Cartersville 74 41 67 35 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 77 49 72 44 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 70 45 65 43 / 5 0 0 0
Macon 79 45 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 75 42 68 39 / 10 0 0 0
Peachtree City 75 42 69 38 / 5 0 0 0
Vidalia 80 52 72 47 / 0 0 0 0