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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
428 am EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014



Short term /today through Thursday/...

Mainly quiet weather in store for north and central Georgia through
the short term...though that changes as we transition into the
extended. Weak ridging aloft with surface high pressure dominates
the southeast. A very strong trough pushes off The Rockies tomorrow
increasing the amplitude of the overall wave...so weak ridging today
gives way to much stronger ridging over the southern Appalachians
tomorrow. The big story through the short term will be the
increasing temperatures. Well above normal highs expected today...
generally middle to upper 80s...and very similar tomorrow. For Atlanta
the currently forecast highs /85 both days/ are only 4 degrees off
from records /record is 89 for both days/...though other climate
sites are quite a bit further away from record values. Not much in
the way of wind either so it might be kind of oppressive out there
in a relative sense...for October 1. Might get a little more of a
breeze on Thursday in advance of the approaching trough but with the
southerly flow kicking up it will just serve to increase surface
moisture and humidity. May begin to see a slight increase in clouds
Thursday as well. Bigger changes coming for the extended.

Tdp



Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...

Upper ridge moving off the Atlantic coast Thursday night as a cold
front enters the MS valley. Front approaching northwest Georgia around
18z Friday and moving through the forecast area Friday afternoon and
into Friday night. Instability sufficient for thunderstorms during
that time with best convective available potential energy around 1500 and lifted index values of
minus 3 to minus 5. Severe potential looks limited for now. Sharp
trough crossing the southeast Saturday and Sunday with dry and
colder air. Some modification for the first of the week. Looks like
a short wave moves across the Ohio/Tennessee valleys on Tuesday and have
included low probability of precipitation across the far north. Temperatures should be warm
for Friday ahead of the front...but clouds and rain will modify
those values. Temperatures cooling down for the weekend.



41



&&

Climate...



Records for 10-01

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 95 1933 62 1947 69 1933 36 1924
katl 89 1954 59 1920 73 1926 40 1924
1926
1911
kcsg 92 1954 67 1996 73 1977 44 1967
kmcn 94 1954 64 1920 74 1911 39 1993
1967




Records for 10-02

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 94 1911 53 1958 70 1926 38 1924
katl 89 1986 59 1958 72 1910 42 1895
1910
kcsg 93 1986 62 1958 72 2005 42 1984
1986
kmcn 94 1971 65 1958 72 2005 39 1984
1926




Records for 10-03

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 91 1986 56 1958 71 2007 38 1974
katl 94 1911 57 1958 70 2007 40 1981
1986
1884
kcsg 93 1954 62 1958 71 2007 43 1974
1995
1985
kmcn 95 1911 60 1958 71 1937 39 2011
1927




Records for 10-04

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1954 59 1957 71 1941 36 1987
katl 91 1954 61 1957 71 1941 39 1987
1941 1899 1884 1974
kcsg 94 1954 65 1975 73 2007 40 1974
1957
kmcn 95 1954 61 1899 73 1911 36 1987
1974

&&



Aviation...
06z update...
mainly a visibility forecast for this taf set. Expect widespread MVFR
visibility to develop over the next few hours...though mcn has already
seen vlifr conditions off and on. Mcn should be the worst of it
with others mainly remaining MVFR. Cannot rule out a brief ceiling at
mcn as well...but others few to at best scattered. Clearing after
sunrise with few-scattered low VFR cumulus this afternoon. Winds fairly
light...calm this morning and tonight and generally less than 5kt
this afternoon...favoring south-southwest.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium-high on visibility/no ceilings.
High on all other elements.

Tdp

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 85 59 85 67 / 0 5 5 20
Atlanta 85 63 85 72 / 0 5 5 40
Blairsville 81 53 81 63 / 0 5 5 50
Cartersville 86 58 86 69 / 0 5 5 50
Columbus 87 64 88 73 / 0 5 5 40
Gainesville 84 60 84 69 / 0 0 5 40
Macon 88 60 87 70 / 0 5 5 20
Rome 87 56 87 67 / 0 5 10 60
Peachtree City 85 58 86 68 / 0 5 5 40
Vidalia 87 64 88 70 / 0 5 5 10

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...tdp
long term....41
aviation...tdp

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