Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
919 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015
high pressure continues across the southeast states. No major
changes to the grids needed...just some tweaks to the hourly
temperature/dew and sky grids.
Previous discussion... /issued 726 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015/
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015/
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
a quiet weather pattern will continue through the short term under
high pressure influence. A surface ridge anchored along the southeast
Atlantic coast will maintain a southeast wind flow. This will result
in sufficient low level moisture to produce scattered to occasional
broken cumulus Tuesday afternoon... similar to what we have seen today.
The middle and upper level ridging overhead will continue to produce
sufficient subsidence to greatly suppress any chance for convective
development. Therefore... will show none probability of precipitation through the period
except for a slight chance in the far north Georgia mountains where
orographic lift could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm
during maximum heating on Tuesday. Light winds tonight and again Tuesday
night... under clearing skies... will allow lows to dip into the 50s
each night. Partly sunny skies and continue subsidence will
push highs into the lower to middle 80s on Tuesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
main focus for the long term will be the potential
tropical/subtropical system that is being prognosticated to develop by
both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) just off the Georgia/SC coast. The latest run of
the European model (ecmwf) still keeps this main low center off the Carolina/Georgia
coast before moving NE by the beginning of next week. The GFS is
still bringing this low center inland Friday morning and then
weakening through the weekend before moving NE. This huge
difference in positioning between the two models will mean quite
a bit of precipitation for Georgia or nothing at all. Am leaning toward the
European model (ecmwf) positioning as it seam to keep the ridge over our area
longer which would keep this system off shore. The GFS is
notorious for weakening ridges to fast which would also explain
why it wants to pull this system onshore. Decided to keep the
slight chance probability of precipitation in across our eastern sections as this system
is still 4 days away and a lot can change between now and then.
high pressure continues across the southeast. No ceiling or visibility
restrictions expected through the taf period. Some of the hi-res
models are producing a low level jet overnight between 20kt and 30kt. Not
confident that this will occur...and would like to see the 00z
soundings before adding low level wind shear to the tafs.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 54 82 56 82 / 5 5 10 5
Atlanta 59 81 60 82 / 0 5 5 5
Blairsville 53 78 55 80 / 0 20 20 20
Cartersville 57 83 55 84 / 0 0 5 5
Columbus 56 83 57 84 / 0 5 5 5
Gainesville 58 81 58 82 / 0 5 5 5
Macon 53 84 54 84 / 0 5 5 5
Rome 56 84 55 84 / 0 0 5 5
Peachtree City 53 82 54 83 / 0 5 5 5
Vidalia 57 84 57 82 / 0 5 5 0