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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
704 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Previous discussion... /issued 342 am EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/

Short term /today through Thursday/...

Models in good agreement with an upper level low/short wave moving
over southeast Georgia today bringing a slug of deep moisture with it. This
will cause an increase in precipitation chances across mainly the southern
portion of central Georgia...S of csg and mcn. Some enhanced instability
over the NE mountains could lead to a shower or thunderstorm there
this afternoon to early evening as well. S of the NE mountains
and north of central Georgia...chances for showers and storms are just too
low to include in the forecast.

For Thursday...a weak upper level short wave and some increased
moisture move to the area...increasing precipitation chances some
for north Georgia. Overall instability is rather weak so pop chances are
running 20-40 percent...highest over the NE mountains.

Forecast high temperatures running near to 2-4 degrees above normal
today and Thursday. Forecast low temperatures running near 5 degrees
above normal tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

Bdl

Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...

The extended will bring unsettled weather back to the
area...especially by the weekend. Temperatures on Friday will be
quite warm with temperatures running a few degrees above average.
While there will be the chance for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon...rain chances will increase in
earnest on Saturday in association with the back door front pushing
in from the east. The chance for thunderstorms will be higher on
Saturday ahead of The Wedge front where higher instabilities will
reside. Scattered showers will linger for Sunday...but any
thunderstorms should be more isolated with the cooler and more
stable airmass more entrenched into the area. Temperatures will be
several degrees cooler for much of the area on Saturday and area
wide on Sunday with easterly winds and more cloud cover.

Early next week an upper low is forecast to cut off and linger over
the southeastern U.S. For this reason have maintained chance probability of precipitation
during this time frame. Temperatures will be held into the low to
middle 80s for daytime highs.

Rain shower

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
VFR conditions expected...except for patchy to areas of MVFR fog
until 13z. Scattered-broken 3500-7000 feet SC/cumulus expected with varying high
level clouds during the day. Winds variable or west-northwest to east-northeast around 5
kts.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium confidence on any lower ceilings and wind direction.
High confidence all other elements.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 91 72 91 71 / 10 5 20 10
Atlanta 89 73 90 73 / 10 5 20 10
Blairsville 85 65 85 64 / 30 5 40 10
Cartersville 89 70 90 68 / 10 5 20 10
Columbus 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 30 10
Gainesville 88 72 89 71 / 10 5 20 10
Macon 89 72 90 72 / 20 10 30 10
Rome 89 70 91 69 / 10 5 20 10
Peachtree City 89 71 90 70 / 10 5 20 10
Vidalia 89 73 91 73 / 40 20 30 10

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...bdl
long term....rw
aviation...bdl

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