Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
145 PM EDT Friday Jul 11 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am EDT Friday Jul 11 2014/
Short term /today through Saturday/...
weak frontal boundary still situated across north central Georgia this
morning. A weak low pressure wave has developed along the boundary
over northern Georgia. The low center may provide a little more lift than
yesterday...and coverage of storms may be a little better.
However...the best coverage of storms remains along and south of
Again...widespread severe weather is not anticipated...but a few
strong storms are possible and there is some potential for an
isolated severe storm. Forecast soundings still show a nice inverted
v structure...so gusty winds will be likely within thunderstorms.
Precipitable waters are down slightly from yesterday across the north and central
portions of the County warning forecast area...a sign that there is slightly drier air back
behind the boundary. Do think that the potential for locally heavy
rainfall is best across the southern County warning forecast area...where the deeper
moisture resides with the tlh sounding showing precipitable waters just under 2
The boundary will try and inch a little southward by Saturday...
keeping the best probability of precipitation across the southern County warning forecast area and only isolated
activity across the metropolitan atl area.
Temperatures should continue slightly below normal today...with the
boundary across the northern half of the County warning forecast area. However...if the
boundary does shift southward by Saturday...temperatures should increase
to near 90s across most areas.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
amplification of ridge/trough pattern across Continental U.S. Beginning
Sunday/Monday still on track per 00z medium range models...which
show very good agreement. Western ridge builds north while nice upper
low and broad/deep trough prognosticated to dip into upper Midwest states
Monday. Bulk of below normal temperatures should stay north of the state but
should see a brief push of drier air and slightly below normal
temperatures on Wednesday. As westerlies along periphery trough move over the
state Tuesday then return back north on Thursday...should see good
chance of convection. No tropical activity or other high impact
events seen in model guidance. Used bias corrected blend of
guidance for temperatures.
mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions currently but I expect all areas VFR
by 19z outside of scattered convection. Convective coverage will
increase some across all of the forecast area through 22z then begin
diminishing. Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop
between 06z and 14z with local IFR or lower conditions. Right now I
do not expect any IFR or lower conditions at any taf site during
that period...however any site that receives significant rainfall on
or in the vicinity of the airfield may eventually end up with at
least brief IFR visibilities and/or ceilings by 10z. Isolated to
scattered convection will develop again tomorrow by 18z. Winds will
remain light...8kts or less...and generally easterly through the
period outside of convection.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 89 71 91 69 / 30 20 20 10
Atlanta 89 72 91 72 / 30 20 20 5
Blairsville 83 65 85 63 / 30 10 20 5
Cartersville 89 71 92 69 / 10 10 20 5
Columbus 91 74 94 73 / 30 20 20 10
Gainesville 88 70 89 71 / 30 20 20 10
Macon 90 72 93 70 / 40 20 30 10
Rome 90 69 93 70 / 10 10 20 5
Peachtree City 89 71 91 68 / 30 20 20 10
Vidalia 88 72 92 71 / 40 30 30 10