Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
700 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015

Previous discussion... /issued 334 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015/

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...

With Erika dissipated...forecast is a little more straight forward
but not without some uncertainty. At least for the initial portion
on Tuesday...models in good agreement in showing a significant
zone of middle level dry air residing over most of the are which
should limit probability of precipitation to low end chance at best and confined mainly to
the mountains and extreme southern tier.

The big question through the extended will be when does the deep
tropical moisture from remnant Erika arrive. All indications from
the long term models are that it will be a while as moisture gets
to the southern fringe of the County Warning Area and puts on the brakes for a
while. Sharp pop gradient is the result with near likely for my
far southern zones and little if anything from the Atlanta metropolitan
northward as area is under the influence of 593dm high through
late Wednesday.

Upper ridge breaks down on Thursday with some shortwave energy arriving
from the SW. Deeper moisture though is still lacking and hanging
out around the Florida/Georgia line so will not have much more
than Middle Range chance probability of precipitation during this time period.'

For the remainder of the extended...high pressure builds in over
the NE states late in the week and ridges down the east side of
the Appalachians providing for a wedge type scenario for US and
shunting moisture from Erika west of the area and avoids any heavy
rain scenarios for our area with this model run. It should be
noted that deep moisture is right on our doorstep this entire
period and it will not take much northward movement for our
southern tier to experience some significant rains with this
alternative solution.



12z update...
main concern is impacts from showers and thunderstorms and timing
of such and how much if any IFR/MVFR ceilings. Low confidence
forecast for most elements and conditions will just have to be
closely monitored for trends. Surface winds east-southeast 10 kts or less.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
low confidence on how precipitation and impacts...ceilings...vsbys...impacts
from any thunderstorms.
Medium to high confidence on winds.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 81 67 83 69 / 60 50 30 20
Atlanta 79 69 84 70 / 60 30 30 20
Blairsville 75 62 80 63 / 60 30 30 20
Cartersville 80 67 84 67 / 60 30 30 20
Columbus 84 71 88 72 / 50 20 20 20
Gainesville 78 67 81 69 / 60 50 30 20
Macon 83 70 86 70 / 70 30 30 20
Rome 79 67 84 67 / 60 30 30 20
Peachtree City 79 67 84 68 / 60 30 30 20
Vidalia 83 72 85 72 / 70 50 60 30


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...bdl
long term....deese

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations