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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
727 am EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Short term /today through Wednesday/...
/issued at 452 am EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
all models in good agreement through the short term. The upper low
that has been bringing abundant moisture to the County Warning Area will shift
westward through Wednesday. As it does the deepest moisture will
shift into north Georgia today and tonight diminishing late tonight
and Wednesday. Looks like another wet day for parts of the County Warning Area
today...mainly across north Georgia...but the risk of rain will
decrease somewhat on Wednesday. Daytime maximum temperatures will moderate
slowly through Wednesday.

17

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
/issued at 452 am EDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
active pattern still expected through the extended period...with
generally above normal rain chances each day. Aforementioned upper
low will keep ample moisture across the area through the work
week. This moisture will combine with a frontal boundary pushing
into the area Thursday to keep rain chances high and have
continued with good chance probability of precipitation or higher Thursday. Weak high
pressure does move in behind the front...and lowest rain chances
look to be Friday and Friday night. The reprieve is short lived as
another upper level disturbance influences the area Saturday night
as longwave trough sets up over the Great Lakes region. Long term
models differ in timing and extent of the precipitation...and
given the uncertainty...have generally gone with good chance probability of precipitation
each afternoon and slight chance probability of precipitation overnight for Sunday through
Tuesday.

Modeled instabilities still look to support strong to potentially
brief severe storms each afternoon...but on the whole still expect
the majority to be sub-severe with the main concern being heavy
rainfall. Precipitable waters continue to be high and localized heavy rainfall
amounts can be expected...particularly over areas where storms
have little movement...or where storms may train over the same
location.

In general...near normal temperatures are expected...with a slight
cooling trend into next week with the influence of the second
frontal boundary and longwave trough.

31



&&

Aviation...
12z update...
IFR/MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR by late morning. Areas of light rain
over central and west central Georgia to diminish over the next few
hours. Convection will develop late this morning and this afternoon
with the best chances between 19z and 23z. Winds will be light to
near calm through the forecast. IFR ceilings are expected again after
09z tonight.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium confidence on ceilings and precipitation timing
high confidence on winds.

17

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 84 71 91 71 / 60 50 30 30
Atlanta 84 72 88 72 / 50 40 30 20
Blairsville 81 67 84 66 / 60 50 50 50
Cartersville 84 69 88 70 / 60 50 40 40
Columbus 85 72 92 73 / 50 40 30 20
Gainesville 83 71 86 71 / 60 50 40 30
Macon 85 70 91 72 / 50 40 30 20
Rome 85 70 89 71 / 60 50 40 40
Peachtree City 84 70 89 70 / 50 40 30 20
Vidalia 90 73 94 74 / 60 40 30 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...17
long term....31
aviation...17

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