Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
620 am EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Short term /today through Thursday/...
radar trends across the north have shown some decrease in the
coverage and intensity of the scattered snow showers...however
isolated to scattered light to moderate snow showers are likely to
continue until at least daybreak with scattered flurries continuing
into the afternoon across the Winter Weather Advisory area. Although
little or no additional accumulations are expected...temperatures
will remain below freezing across most of the advisory area today
and travel problems should linger through the day. Based on the
lingering flurries and travel issues I have opted to extend the
Winter Weather Advisory through 00z. Single digit wind chills are
also expected to continue across the Wind Chill Advisory area so no
changes are planned there.
The deep upper-level trough that brought the taste winter to north
and central Georgia is expected to slowly shift north and east
through Thursday. Flurries should be ending by middle to late afternoon
across the far north and the remainder of the forecast period looks
dry. Another weak slug of vorticity streaks down the back side of
the trough this evening...but any impacts should remain north of the
state. Another very windy day in store today...however wind speeds
are expected to remain below Wind Advisory levels. With the upper
trough lifting and flattening...models showing a quick temperature
recovery during the day Thursday after another cold night tonight. I
have stayed fairly close to a blend of MOS temperatures.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
a wintry mix is possible early next week.
A long wave trough will remain situated across the eastern Seaboard
through the first half of the weekend. A weak shortwave will drop
down into the base of the trough late in the week. Earlier this
week...models were producing some light precipitation with this feature and
a coincident surface low. For several runs now...the models have
been try. Will continue to trend this way.
The main weather system that is expected to impact the forecast area
will be during the early part of next week...overnight Sunday into
Monday night. For several runs now...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) bufr
soundings have indicated that precipitation types would be an issue and a
wintry mix was possible. This still holds true. Both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) continue to show the potential for rain or freezing
rain...with some sleet/snow possible across northern Georgia. However...I
want to stress...the forecast will likely change and will keep the
rain/snow wording for now. The duration and areal coverage of any
ptype will all depend heavily on the strong wedge that will build in
across portions of north Georgia Sunday. The models tend to wipe out The
Wedge a lot faster than actually occurs. So...interested parties
should stay weather aware and keep abreast of any changes in the
forecast for early next week.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period.
Patchy MVFR ceilings possible across the far northern portions of
the area through 18z...but should remain north of the taf sites.
Some light snow showers or flurries continue across the north
through 18z. West to northwest winds 8-12kt west/ gusts 16-22kt through
15z...increasing to 10-15kt west/ gusts 20-25kt by 18z before
diminishing to 8-12kt after 00z.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 39 24 49 30 / 5 0 0 10
Atlanta 36 26 49 34 / 5 0 0 10
Blairsville 30 18 41 25 / 30 10 0 10
Cartersville 35 24 48 27 / 20 5 0 10
Columbus 41 28 57 38 / 5 0 0 5
Gainesville 34 24 45 30 / 20 5 0 10
Macon 43 27 54 36 / 5 0 0 5
Rome 35 24 47 27 / 20 5 0 10
Peachtree City 38 25 51 30 / 5 0 0 10
Vidalia 44 30 55 42 / 5 0 0 5
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for the
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST Thursday for the following