Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1103 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
a few spots with low stratus this morning across far NE Georgia
but should dissipate by the afternoon. It was a chilly start to the
morning but will warm up into the middle 60s across the north to the
middle 70s across central Georgia. Changes to the forecast this
morning were to account for hourly trends.
Short term /today through Friday/...
chilly start this morning as the higher elevations in the far
northeast likely waking up to patchy frost and many others in north
Georgia in the upper 30s to low 40s. Should warm up quickly today
under again mostly clear skies with highs slightly below norms.
Guidance in decent agreement with main features of short term as
ridging quickly weakens across the area as the Upper Cutoff low
pushes farther northeast across the eastern Seaboard. Gradient winds
should be less today and flow aloft transitions to a brief zonal
period ahead of a moisture starved shortwave prognosticated to traverse the
area Friday. Have kept dry forecast as thermal profiles only showing
some upper to middle level moisture with the weak disturbance so have
just enhanced some cloud coverage across the north.
Though still looking cool tonight...values should be a bit too warm
for frost concerns especially if some high clouds make it in for the
early morning hours limiting radiational cooling. Friday highs
returning back near normal in the low to middle 70s for much of area.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
/issued 318 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
a couple of cold fronts will impact the County warning forecast area through the extended
forecast. The next best chance of precipitation will be during the
middle of next week.
The only real change in the extended forecast was to add slight
chance/chance probability of precipitation for Wednesday and Wednesday night as a frontal
boundary moves through the region. Extended models have come into a
little better agreement. Quantitative precipitation forecast is prognosticated to be very light and less
than a tenth of an inch at this time. Models are also progging some
low level instability along the front...but will leave out mention
of thunder at this time. Will continue to monitor trends.
Otherwise...no significant changes. Above normal daytime temperatures are
expected for the end of the weekend into early next week ahead of
the middle-week frontal boundary.
/issued 736 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
VFR conditions expected through period. Winds generally northwest at 7
kts or less today though some winds may mix down stronger and out
of the northeast near midday for the northern sites. Magnitudes
decreasing to light or calm tonight. Mostly clear skies with some
cirrus gradually filtering in today with greatest coverage late
tonight/early Friday then clearing again.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium on midday winds.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 69 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 67 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 68 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 68 46 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 72 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 69 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 70 39 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 72 48 75 48 / 0 0 0 0